Doubling when score is 14:12 post-crawford in a 15 point match
Gus
Should I double at first opportunity? Or hold onto the cube?
The way I see it. If I double immediately, I am betting that I can gammon.
If I hold the cube and it looks like a non-gammon win, I can force it to match point in the next
game.
But I am very disappointed if I do, in fact, gammon without the cube.
By the way, the specific situation was that I was playing a slightly stronger player than myself.
Alef
a post-crawford game. The only exception I can think of is if your opponent
has a free drop and you believe you can gammon, but if you're 3-away (14 to
12 in a 15pt match) then there isn't the free drop.
Alef
in article JSFk9.10574$fO.14...@kent.svc.tds.net, Gus at som...@tds.net
wrote on 26/9/02 4:39 pm:
Ryan Long
> When the score is 14:12 post-Crawford in a 15 point match...
> Should I double at first opportunity? Or hold onto the cube?
> The way I see it. If I double immediately, I am betting that I can gammon.
It isn't a bet. What are you risking? Raising the
stakes isn't a risk, since he only needs one point. Giving him the cube
isn't a risk, because cube ownership is no longer an asset to him.
If you double immediately, all you are doing is putting yourself in a
position to score more points. The number of points this game is worth
impacts your odds of winning the match. The number of points this game
is worth has no impact on the odds of your opponent winning the match.
> If I hold the cube and it looks like a non-gammon win, I can force it to match point in the next
> game.
What did you gain by reducing the number of ways you can win the
match? With the cube at 1 you can only win the match this game with a
backgammon. With the cube at 2, a gammon wins the match. Wouldn't it be
nice not to have to play that next game?
> But I am very disappointed if I do, in fact, gammon without the cube.
Don't you mean regretful? Your decision not to cube prevented you
from winning the match.
> By the way, the specific situation was that I was playing a slightly stronger player than myself.
Double on your first move.
Douglas Zare
> When the score is 14:12 post-Crawford in a 15 point match...
>
> Should I double at first opportunity? Or hold onto the cube?
Technically, it does not hurt to double immediately. However, if you really know what you are doing,
you can steal some equity from an imperfect opponent by waiting.
> The way I see it. If I double immediately, I am betting that I can gammon.
? No. If you lose the game, you lose the match, and it doesn't matter what the score is. You can
double because you can use the extra points and your opponent cannot. You should double even with no
gammon chances.
> If I hold the cube and it looks like a non-gammon win, I can force it to match point in the next
> game.
>
> But I am very disappointed if I do, in fact, gammon without the cube.
Yes. Here's the main thing to keep in mind: Your opponent should take with 3% winning chances if
there are no gammons, or 3%+gammon losses (from their perspective). If you ever risk losing your
market, you are making a technical error. (In a recent match, my opponent lost his market by getting
to 33311 vs 664333 in the bearoff, a slight market loser. He claimed my pass was a clear mistake, but
didn't have the guts to bet on it. A database says I win 2.6% -- I estimated 2.0% OTB.) However,
often your opponent will not know the take point, and will pass a huge take. For this to happen, your
position must be threatening a gammon, or you should have a huge racing lead that would ordinarily be
considered hopeless. It's often good to wait for a position that would be a clear money pass, or a
clear pass at 2-away 4-away, but which is still a take at this match score.
If you don't understand this very well, then double immediately at this score, and always take at the
opposite score.
> By the way, the specific situation was that I was playing a slightly stronger player than myself.
In that case, I think you should double immediately and focus on the checker play.
Douglas Zare
Hank Youngerman
sometimes steal a little equity by holding the cube, but in general
it's not worth it.
If you look at the next-to-last game at:
http://www.redtopbg.com/matches/Levermann_vs_RedTop.html
You will see a match where I just plain forgot to double
post-Crawford. The score was 14-8, basically the same decision
conditions as 14-12. What is interesting is how little I lost in
equity by failing to double early. I wasn't trying to hustle my
opponent. (You CAN'T hustle someone that good.) I just forgot.
It does work sometimes though. If you can be sure to double at the
right time - usually when you are in the equity range of .70-.85 - you
can gain, if your opponent will drop.
I agree very much with Doug though, just double and then try to win
the game.
Gus
It seems that the consensus is that although a very little equity might be gained by holding the
cube, it ain't enough to worry about.
Sincerely,
Gus
"Gus" <som...@tds.net> wrote in message news:JSFk9.10574$fO.14...@kent.svc.tds.net...