Play safe?

[Tim Chow]

XGID=---cB-DCC---dA---b-cba--B-:0:0:1:42:0:0:0:0:10

X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O | | O O O X |
| O | | O O X |
| | | O |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| O | | X |
| O X X | | X O |
| O X X | | X X O |
| O X X | | X X O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 138 O: 166 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 42

---
Tim Chow

[Paul]

24/22 is essential to get the back checkers moving
and avoid getting stuck in an acepoint game.
There's now no way of safetying the midpoint checker.
So 13/9. This checker can now help to make the 5 point
and avoids giving O more good numbers. Is this safe?
No, X is not playing safe. X is playing in a chouette
for $20 a point but can't afford to lose $500.
This greatly limits X's options particularly since X's
opponents have deep pockets and can afford to make equity-maximising
plays. X won't be able to take a large cube and will
thereby lose equity.

[Michael]

Probably 24/18 that duplicates 6s for running and hitting might be the solution.
I consider mobilizing back checkers as a priority, and 24/22 13/9 doesn't look good to me.

[BlueDice]

On Tuesday, March 7, 2017 at 11:44:02 PM UTC, Tim Chow wrote:

24/18
Getting the back men out looks to be the priority here. The chosen achieves this and also duplicates 1s and 6s.
--
BD

[Peter Percival]

24/18


--
Do, as a concession to my poor wits, Lord Darlington, just explain
to me what you really mean.
I think I had better not, Duchess. Nowadays to be intelligible is
to be found out. -- Oscar Wilde, Lady Windermere's Fan

[Walt]

13/7 is the obvious play since we're ahead in the race. But O only has
eight in the zone, so splitting might be in order. Next roll O will
probably have ten in the zone and X will be stuck on the ace point.
Plus splitting to the 22 puts pressure on the blot on the 21.

After splitting to the 22, 13/9 looks better than 8/4 - we retain
another builder for the five point and I'd rather see O hit from the
three than from the 12 which brings another checker into the zone for her.

24/22 13/9


--
//Walt

[Tim Chow]

X is ahead in the race but his back checkers are disconnected from the rest
of his army. The rollout says that anything other than 24/18 is a whopper
or worse despite scattering three blots on O's side of the board.

1. Rollout¹ 24/18 eq:-0.164
Player: 45.90% (G:13.05% B:0.53%)
Opponent: 54.10% (G:15.63% B:0.71%)
Confidence: ±0.014 (-0.179..-0.150) - [100.0%]

2. Rollout¹ 24/22 13/9 eq:-0.256 (-0.092)
Player: 43.33% (G:13.88% B:0.56%)
Opponent: 56.67% (G:15.87% B:0.76%)
Confidence: ±0.017 (-0.273..-0.239) - [0.0%]

3. Rollout¹ 24/22 8/4 eq:-0.322 (-0.158)
Player: 42.11% (G:13.49% B:0.52%)
Opponent: 57.89% (G:16.50% B:0.77%)
Confidence: ±0.016 (-0.338..-0.307) - [0.0%]

4. Rollout¹ 13/7 eq:-0.349 (-0.185)
Player: 40.71% (G:12.84% B:0.51%)
Opponent: 59.29% (G:15.66% B:0.59%)
Confidence: ±0.014 (-0.363..-0.335) - [0.0%]

5. Rollout¹ 24/22 6/2 eq:-0.352 (-0.188)
Player: 41.25% (G:13.55% B:0.58%)
Opponent: 58.75% (G:17.05% B:0.82%)
Confidence: ±0.017 (-0.370..-0.335) - [0.0%]

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.208.pre-release

---
Tim Chow

[bananab...@gmail.com]

As we've covered before, it doesn't matter much what the exact definitions of blunder/whopper/etc... are but it is widely accepted that a blunder is .080 or worse and a whopper .100 or worse.

Stick

[Tim Chow]

On Thursday, March 9, 2017 at 11:36:46 PM UTC-5, bananab...@gmail.com wrote:
> As we've covered before, it doesn't matter much what the exact definitions
> of blunder/whopper/etc... are but it is widely accepted that a blunder is
> .080 or worse and a whopper .100 or worse.

Yes, I know. The #2 play in my rollout contains 0.100 in the confidence
interval.

---
Tim Chow