Early blitz cube, except O isn't on the bar

[Timothy Chow]

XGID=-BaBaBB-----dE---d-e----B-:0:0:1:00:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O | | O X |
| X O | | O X |
| X O | | O |
| X O | | O |
| X | | O |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| O | | |
| O | | |
| O | | X X X X |
| O | | X X O X O X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 143 O: 158 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X on roll, cube action

---
Tim Chow

[Robert Zimmerman]

X is ahead on position and race, a little ahead on threats to hit or improve position substantially with doubles. But without doubles there isn't much attacking to happen in the next roll and O has a little time to anchor. I think it would be a pass if X had any more development in the outfield or with the back checkers off of the ace point.
Bob

[Stick Rice]

On Friday, April 28, 2023 at 8:17:55 AM UTC-4, Timothy Chow wrote:

You gave it away with your title. Not on the bar, not a double by far. Very reference like.

Stick

[peps...@gmail.com]

So it's not a pass but what is it? Or rather, what did you think it was before Stick opined?
I probably would have said D/T myself but the take seems much clearer than the double.

Paul

[Timothy Chow]

A four-point board is a big asset in the opening when the opponent
has no structure. But without anything else, it's not enough for
a double. Any improvement and it gets close (see variant).

Analyzed in Rollout
No double
Player Winning Chances: 58.68% (G:25.08% B:0.49%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 41.32% (G:9.79% B:0.45%)
Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 58.85% (G:24.64% B:0.42%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 41.15% (G:9.72% B:0.45%)

Cubeful Equities:
No double: +0.454
Double/Take: +0.335 (-0.119)
Double/Pass: +1.000 (+0.546)

Best Cube action: No double / Take
Percentage of wrong pass needed to make the double decision right: 17.9%

Rollout:
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Confidence No Double: ± 0.014 (+0.440..+0.468)
Confidence Double: ± 0.021 (+0.314..+0.357)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

-------
Variant
-------

XGID=-BaBaBB----AdD---d-e----B-:0:0:1:00:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O | | O X |
| X O | | O X |
| X O | | O |
| X O | | O |

| | | O |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| O | | |
| O | | |
| O | | X X X X |

| O X | | X X O X O X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 141 O: 158 X-O: 0-0

Cube: 1
X on roll, cube action

Analyzed in Rollout
No double
Player Winning Chances: 61.49% (G:28.31% B:0.54%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 38.51% (G:9.05% B:0.41%)
Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 61.64% (G:29.13% B:0.50%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 38.36% (G:9.17% B:0.44%)

Cubeful Equities:
No double: +0.574
Double/Take: +0.563 (-0.011)
Double/Pass: +1.000 (+0.426)

Best Cube action: No double / Take
Percentage of wrong pass needed to make the double decision right: 2.5%

Rollout:
2592 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Confidence No Double: ± 0.008 (+0.565..+0.582)
Confidence Double: ± 0.014 (+0.549..+0.576)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

---
Tim Chow

[Robert Zimmerman]

I thought it was a double. In retrospect, I should have paid more attention to my own words: "But without doubles there isn't much attacking to happen in the next roll...". Not enough market losing sequences.
Bob

[peps...@gmail.com]

...

On the contrary. I think everyone should ignore their own words. That way, you're covered
whatever happens. If your initial words were right, you've said something wise. OTOH, if
your initial words were wrong, you were wise to ignore them.

Paul