Bearing in against a 2pt anchor

[Timothy Chow]

XGID=-Bb-CBBBB-AAa--a---bbbbba-:1:-1:1:22:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| O | | O O O O O O | +---+
| | | O O O O O | | 2 |
| | | | +---+
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | X |
| X X | | X X X O X |
| O X X X X | | X X X O X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 87 O: 110 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, O own cube
X to play 22

---
Tim Chow

[Timothy Chow]

You may recall that in the recent problem, "Which point to make?"
XG thought that allowing 4 hitting rolls was too much risk. So
here, you might think that something like 11/5 10/8 is indicated.
However, XG thinks that 11/5 10/8 is a whopper, and wants to fill
in the gap with 7/3(2). But see the variant.

1. Rollout¹ 7/3(2) eq:+0.602
Player: 80.80% (G:7.12% B:0.31%)
Opponent: 19.20% (G:2.52% B:0.06%)
Confidence: ±0.004 (+0.599..+0.606) - [100.0%]

2. Rollout¹ 10/6 7/5(2) eq:+0.542 (-0.060)
Player: 78.01% (G:5.15% B:0.15%)
Opponent: 21.99% (G:1.02% B:0.02%)
Confidence: ±0.007 (+0.535..+0.549) - [0.0%]

3. Rollout¹ 11/7 8/6(2) eq:+0.534 (-0.069)
Player: 78.14% (G:4.61% B:0.14%)
Opponent: 21.86% (G:1.01% B:0.02%)
Confidence: ±0.005 (+0.529..+0.539) - [0.0%]

4. Rollout¹ 10/6 8/6(2) eq:+0.518 (-0.084)
Player: 77.36% (G:4.74% B:0.10%)
Opponent: 22.64% (G:0.99% B:0.02%)
Confidence: ±0.005 (+0.513..+0.523) - [0.0%]

5. Rollout¹ 10/6 5/3(2) eq:+0.464 (-0.138)
Player: 74.76% (G:4.57% B:0.12%)
Opponent: 25.24% (G:1.78% B:0.04%)
Confidence: ±0.004 (+0.460..+0.468) - [0.0%]

6. Rollout¹ 11/5 10/8 eq:+0.464 (-0.138)
Player: 75.07% (G:4.59% B:0.09%)
Opponent: 24.93% (G:2.85% B:0.07%)
Confidence: ±0.004 (+0.460..+0.469) - [0.0%]

7. Rollout¹ 11/7 10/6 eq:+0.450 (-0.153)
Player: 74.70% (G:3.81% B:0.06%)
Opponent: 25.30% (G:1.77% B:0.04%)
Confidence: ±0.005 (+0.445..+0.455) - [0.0%]

8. Rollout¹ 11/9 10/8 7/5(2) eq:+0.445 (-0.157)
Player: 74.44% (G:6.05% B:0.25%)
Opponent: 25.56% (G:2.28% B:0.05%)
Confidence: ±0.006 (+0.439..+0.451) - [0.0%]

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

-------
Variant
-------

XGID=-Bb-CBBBB-AAa------bbbbbb-:1:-1:1:22:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| | | O O O O O O | +---+

| | | O O O O O O | | 2 |

| | | | +---+
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | X |
| X X | | X X X O X |
| O X X X X | | X X X O X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+

Pip count X: 87 O: 101 X-O: 0-0

Cube: 2, O own cube
X to play 22

1. Rollout¹ 11/7 8/6(2) eq:+0.519
Player: 77.48% (G:3.17% B:0.03%)
Opponent: 22.52% (G:0.81% B:0.01%)
Confidence: ±0.004 (+0.515..+0.523) - [81.9%]

2. Rollout¹ 10/6 7/5(2) eq:+0.517 (-0.003)
Player: 76.94% (G:3.87% B:0.04%)
Opponent: 23.06% (G:0.91% B:0.01%)
Confidence: ±0.004 (+0.513..+0.520) - [18.1%]

3. Rollout¹ 10/6 8/6(2) eq:+0.508 (-0.011)
Player: 76.79% (G:3.30% B:0.04%)
Opponent: 23.21% (G:0.63% B:0.01%)
Confidence: ±0.004 (+0.504..+0.512) - [0.0%]

4. Rollout¹ 11/7 10/6 eq:+0.506 (-0.014)
Player: 77.19% (G:3.64% B:0.05%)
Opponent: 22.81% (G:1.11% B:0.02%)
Confidence: ±0.004 (+0.501..+0.510) - [0.0%]

5. Rollout¹ 7/3(2) eq:+0.503 (-0.016)
Player: 77.64% (G:4.53% B:0.05%)
Opponent: 22.36% (G:4.33% B:0.08%)
Confidence: ±0.003 (+0.500..+0.507) - [0.0%]

6. Rollout¹ 11/5 10/8 eq:+0.495 (-0.024)
Player: 76.57% (G:4.19% B:0.06%)
Opponent: 23.43% (G:2.24% B:0.04%)
Confidence: ±0.004 (+0.491..+0.500) - [0.0%]

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

---
Tim Chow