Choose the lesser evil

[Tim Chow]

XGID=-bCBC-CB--------b--cbbBd--:0:0:1:42:0:0:0:0:10

X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| O | | O O O X O |
| O | | O O O X O |
| | | O O |
| | | O |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | X X X |
| X | | X X X X O |
| X | | X X X X O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 100 O: 110 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 42

---
Tim Chow

[ah....Clem]

Breaking the bar point gives O a chance to escape with tempo, or just
escape. If we hold it she still has a lot of work to do even if we're
stuck on the bar. 22/18 for sure, then 4/2 looks a bit more flexible
than 6/4.


--
Ah....Clem
The future is fun, the future is fair.

[Timothy Chow]

It's possible to hold the bar point and hold the anchor, with 6/2 4/2.

---
Tim Chow

[Timothy Chow]

Breaking anchor exposes X to a whole lot of shots, but according
to XG, stacking up on the 2pt is even worse. See the variant for
comparison.

1. Rollout¹ 22/18 4/2 eq:+0.284
Player: 57.25% (G:15.75% B:1.17%)
Opponent: 42.75% (G:10.49% B:0.26%)
Confidence: ±0.013 (+0.271..+0.297) - [100.0%]

2. Rollout¹ 22/18 6/4 eq:+0.241 (-0.043)
Player: 56.64% (G:15.00% B:1.04%)
Opponent: 43.36% (G:10.46% B:0.29%)
Confidence: ±0.014 (+0.227..+0.255) - [0.0%]

3. Rollout¹ 6/2 4/2 eq:+0.201 (-0.083)
Player: 55.73% (G:10.15% B:0.39%)
Opponent: 44.27% (G:8.98% B:0.32%)
Confidence: ±0.011 (+0.190..+0.211) - [0.0%]

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release

-------
Variant
-------

XGID=-bBBD-CB--------b--cbbBd--:0:0:1:42:0:0:0:0:10

X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| O | | O O O X O |
| O | | O O O X O |
| | | O O |
| | | O |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | X |
| | | X X |
| X | | X X X X O |
| X | | X X X X O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+

Pip count X: 102 O: 110 X-O: 0-0

Cube: 1
X to play 42

1. Rollout¹ 6/2 4/2 eq:+0.398
Player: 60.59% (G:12.01% B:0.48%)
Opponent: 39.41% (G:7.99% B:0.32%)
Confidence: ±0.008 (+0.390..+0.406) - [76.7%]

2. Rollout¹ 22/18 4/2 eq:+0.394 (-0.004)
Player: 59.66% (G:17.26% B:1.22%)
Opponent: 40.34% (G:10.12% B:0.27%)
Confidence: ±0.009 (+0.384..+0.403) - [23.3%]

¹ 2592 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release

---
Tim Chow