Hit one, hit two, escape, build or some combination thereof?

[ah...Clem]

XGID=--aB-BCB-aA--B-b-bcccB--A-:0:0:1:51:0:0:3:0:10

X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game, Jacoby Beaver
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O O O | | O O X X |
| X O O O | | O O X |
| O | | O O |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | X |
| X | | X X X |
| X O X | | X X X O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 150 O: 129 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 51

[Tim Chow]

21/16 10/9* is my play. We'd like to jump O's five-prime, and
doing so when she's on the bar is a great opportunity.

---
Tim Chow

[ah....Clem]

My take on this play was to either whack two or whack one while
escaping. Both seemed to be thematic. I didn't consider the building
play of 13/8 10/9* which is sort of a hybrid.

I opted to hit two because that's my nature and it seemed sound. XG
doesn't like it at all at lower settings, but a full 1296 rollout rates
it as a minor error. Meanwhile, escaping or bringing one down after the
hit are statistically tied.

1. Rollout¹ 21/16 10/9* eq:-0.044
Player: 48.80% (G:16.89% B:0.84%)
Opponent: 51.20% (G:18.92% B:1.50%)
Confidence: ±0.017 (-0.061..-0.027) - [51.2%]
Duration: 5 minutes 41 seconds

2. Rollout¹ 13/8 10/9* eq:-0.044 (-0.001)
Player: 48.18% (G:16.16% B:0.70%)
Opponent: 51.82% (G:15.04% B:0.74%)
Confidence: ±0.015 (-0.060..-0.029) - [46.7%]
Duration: 5 minutes 16 seconds

3. Rollout¹ 10/9* 7/2* eq:-0.061 (-0.018)
Player: 47.06% (G:18.56% B:0.66%)
Opponent: 52.94% (G:16.10% B:0.92%)
Confidence: ±0.017 (-0.078..-0.045) - [2.1%]
Duration: 5 minutes 29 seconds



¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller


eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10


--
Ah....Clem
The future is fun, the future is fair.

[Stick Rice]

"The best time to get off a shitty anchor is when the opponent is on the bar" - me.

While we don't normally think of the 21pt as a *shitty anchor it is here because we're so hemmed in.

Stick

[Timothy Chow]

Nice position. FWIW, below is a somewhat longer rollout with somewhat
stronger settings.

XGID=--aB-BCB-aA--B-b-bcccB--A-:0:0:1:51:0:0:3:0:10

X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game, Jacoby Beaver
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O O O | | O O X X |
| X O O O | | O O X |
| O | | O O |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | X |
| X | | X X X |
| X O X | | X X X O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 150 O: 129 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 51

1. Rollout¹ 21/16 10/9* eq:-0.030
Player: 49.06% (G:16.75% B:0.81%)
Opponent: 50.94% (G:18.51% B:1.39%)
Confidence: ±0.008 (-0.038..-0.021) - [99.1%]

2. Rollout¹ 13/8 10/9* eq:-0.043 (-0.013)
Player: 48.11% (G:16.02% B:0.62%)
Opponent: 51.89% (G:14.67% B:0.70%)
Confidence: ±0.007 (-0.051..-0.036) - [0.9%]

3. Rollout¹ 10/9* 7/2* eq:-0.066 (-0.037)
Player: 47.00% (G:18.40% B:0.60%)
Opponent: 53.00% (G:15.83% B:0.89%)
Confidence: ±0.008 (-0.075..-0.058) - [0.0%]

¹ 3139 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+
Search interval: Large

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release

---
Tim Chow