Blitz or prime?

[ah....Clem]

And if priming, how?

XGID=a---aBDBA-A-cDb-Ac-c-b----:1:-1:1:53:0:0:3:0:10

X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game, Jacoby Beaver
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O X O | | O O | +---+
| X O O | | O O | | 2 |
| X O | | O | +---+
| X | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | O | |
| | | X |
| O | | X |
| O X | | X X |
| O X X X | | X X O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 134 O: 157 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, O own cube
X to play 53




--
Ah....Clem
The future is fun, the future is fair.

[Timothy Chow]

On 9/24/2023 10:25 AM, ah....Clem wrote:
>
> And if priming, how?
>
> XGID=a---aBDBA-A-cDb-Ac-c-b----:1:-1:1:53:0:0:3:0:10
>
> X:Player 1   O:Player 2
> Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game, Jacoby Beaver
>  +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
>  | X  O     X  O    |   | O     O          | +---+
>  | X  O        O    |   | O     O          | | 2 |
>  | X           O    |   | O                | +---+
>  | X                |   |                  |
>  |                  |   |                  |
>  |                  |BAR|                  |
>  |                  | O |                  |
>  |                  |   | X                |
>  | O                |   | X                |
>  | O              X |   | X  X             |
>  | O     X     X  X |   | X  X  O          |
>  +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
> Pip count  X: 134  O: 157 X-O: 0-0
> Cube: 2, O own cube
> X to play 53

We've escaped both of our back checkers and have only a two-point board.
That might suggest a safe play, but we already have ten checkers in the
zone, and even 16/8 gives O a hitting 6 from the bar. I would continue
the blitz with 13/8 7/4*.

---
Tim Chow

[Stick Rice]

Would you even really seriously consider your play at dmp?

Stick

[ah....Clem]

XGID=a---aBDBA-A-cDb-Ac-c-b----:1:-1:1:53:0:0:3:0:10

X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game, Jacoby Beaver
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O X O | | O O | +---+
| X O O | | O O | | 2 |
| X O | | O | +---+
| X | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | O | |
| | | X |
| O | | X |
| O X | | X X |
| O X X X | | X X O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 134 O: 157 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, O own cube
X to play 53

It doesn't exactly take a rocket surgeon to see that priming wins more
games while blitzing will win more gammons. The question is whether the
additional gammons are worth it.


XG says no by a wide margin. I opted to blitz here, as did some pretty
good players (e.g. NeilKaz), but the additional gammons are just not
worth it. Not sure how to judge these adequately, and since I mostly
play short matches where doubled gammons are worth considerably more
than for money I tend to err on the aggressive side.

I don't think the simplistic "just make the DMP play" is applicable to
enough positions to use it regularly, although it works here.

In the variant, I've moved O's checkers on her four to the six and
changed it to 5a5a match play. This makes blitzing a small error
according to XGR+++.




1. Rollout¹ 16/8 eq:+0.523
Player: 74.72% (G:14.80% B:0.43%)
Opponent: 25.28% (G:3.53% B:0.14%)
Confidence: ±0.007 (+0.516..+0.530) - [100.0%]
Duration: 6 minutes 01 second

2. Rollout¹ 13/10 13/8 eq:+0.481 (-0.042)
Player: 72.11% (G:18.36% B:0.90%)
Opponent: 27.89% (G:5.28% B:0.25%)
Confidence: ±0.008 (+0.474..+0.489) - [0.0%]
Duration: 5 minutes 52 seconds

3. Rollout¹ 16/11 13/10 eq:+0.462 (-0.062)
Player: 72.06% (G:16.59% B:0.55%)
Opponent: 27.94% (G:4.58% B:0.21%)
Confidence: ±0.008 (+0.454..+0.469) - [0.0%]
Duration: 5 minutes 46 seconds

4. Rollout¹ 13/8 7/4* eq:+0.339 (-0.184)
Player: 65.23% (G:27.48% B:0.84%)
Opponent: 34.77% (G:10.12% B:0.82%)
Confidence: ±0.010 (+0.329..+0.349) - [0.0%]
Duration: 6 minutes 09 seconds

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller


eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10


///////////////////////////
//variant
///////////////////////////



XGID=a---aBDBA-A-cDb-Ac-e------:1:-1:1:53:0:0:0:5:10

X:Player 1 O:Player 2

Score is X:0 O:0 5 pt.(s) match.
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O X O | | O | +---+
| X O O | | O | | 2 |
| X O | | O | +---+
| X | | O |
| | | O |

| |BAR| |
| | O | |
| | | X |
| O | | X |
| O X | | X X |
| O X X X | | X X O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+

Pip count X: 134 O: 161 X-O: 0-0/5

Cube: 2, O own cube
X to play 53

1. XG Roller++ 13/10 13/8 eq:+0.680
Player: 76.40% (G:22.29% B:0.90%)
Opponent: 23.60% (G:3.44% B:0.13%)

2. XG Roller++ 13/8 7/4* eq:+0.654 (-0.026)
Player: 71.51% (G:31.84% B:0.93%)
Opponent: 28.49% (G:5.96% B:0.33%)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

[Stick Rice]

If you use "just make the dmp play" how it's supposed to be used then yes, it's wildly useful.

Stick

[MK]

On September 25, 2023 at 6:55:36 PM UTC-6, Stick Rice wrote:

> If you use "just make the dmp play" how...

What are you doing here in RGB, stick?

The last couple dozens of posts here were
between "math giver" Tim and A.H. Clem.

Just when I was about to suggest that they
"get a room", you showed up for a "menage
a trois"... ;)

Are you just "whoring" in RGB temporarily
for a change or are you trying to recruit
whores for your personal bordello to liven
it up with moronic position discussions...?

Frankly, I would be grateful to you forever
and a day if you can take them two with you
when you go back home...

MK

[Timothy Chow]

On 9/25/2023 5:47 PM, ah....Clem wrote:
> XG says no by a wide margin. I opted to blitz here, as did some pretty
> good players (e.g. NeilKaz)

Clearly, Neil needs a lecture from Stick about making the DMP play.

---
Tim Chow

[ah....Clem]

On 9/25/2023 8:55 PM, Stick Rice wrote:

>
> If you use "just make the dmp play" how it's supposed to be used then yes, it's wildly useful.

So, how is it supposed to be used?

Is it like "when in doubt make the five point"?


I did comment that making the priming play looked good, but opted for
the more aggressive play since that's my nature.

[Stick Rice]

I was out of country for a few months and just recently back so I'm getting caught up. I'm always whoring around both locations when I have the time.

Stick

[Stick Rice]

Neil has had it and makes use of it. Not surprisingly people sometimes forget to look at it from that angle. If I was the gambling type of guy I'd be willing to bet that you could search Neil's posts on BGO and find in non dmp positions where he often points to the dmp play specifically by mentioning it would be best at dmp.

Stick

[Stick Rice]

Idk if I have covered it in full on BGO before or not. Feels like I have but I don't have time to search for it now. If not, I will do it in the future.

Stick