Break anchor or dump?

[Timothy Chow]

XGID=-CB-cBDBaaa--------cbBb-b-:1:-1:1:54:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| | | O O X O O | +---+
| | | O O X O O | | 2 |
| | | O | +---+
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | X |
| | | X O X |
| X | | X X O X X |
| O O O X | | X X O X X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 97 O: 147 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, O own cube
X to play 54

---
Tim Chow

[ah....Clem]

I don't like dumping here but breaking anchor leaves too many shots for
my taste. 21/17 6/1 might be playable, but with 7s 8s 9s to hit in the
outfield and 2s 11s and 12s to hit loose it seems like a guaranteed trip
to the bar. what doesn't hit?

so, I'll dump. Clearing the bar looks a bit better than playing off the
six so I'll do that.

--
Ah....Clem
The future is fun, the future is fair.

[Stick Rice]

Dumping sounds shitty.

Stick

[Frank Berger]

> so, I'll dump. Clearing the bar looks a bit better than playing off the
> six so I'll do that.

Will X situation be better or worse after the next roll, when he dumps?

[Timothy Chow]

Dumping with 7/3 7/2 is essentially a "pay later" type of play. The
trouble is that things aren't likely to get better for X. He is very
likely to have to pay eventually, and killing those two checkers is a
big sacrifice.

In the variant, paying now costs even more in terms of number of shots,
but XG still prefers to pay now.

1. Rollout¹ 21/17 21/16 eq:-0.208
Player: 49.18% (G:18.18% B:0.44%)
Opponent: 50.82% (G:15.24% B:0.39%)
Confidence: ±0.011 (-0.218..-0.197) - [100.0%]

2. Rollout¹ 21/17 6/1 eq:-0.263 (-0.055)
Player: 46.88% (G:17.87% B:0.38%)
Opponent: 53.12% (G:15.77% B:0.46%)
Confidence: ±0.011 (-0.275..-0.252) - [0.0%]

3. Rollout¹ 21/12 eq:-0.322 (-0.114)
Player: 45.48% (G:16.14% B:0.40%)
Opponent: 54.52% (G:16.02% B:0.45%)
Confidence: ±0.010 (-0.332..-0.311) - [0.0%]

4. Rollout¹ 21/16 6/2 eq:-0.336 (-0.128)
Player: 44.80% (G:17.09% B:0.44%)
Opponent: 55.20% (G:16.79% B:0.44%)
Confidence: ±0.010 (-0.346..-0.325) - [0.0%]

5. Rollout¹ 7/3 7/2 eq:-0.365 (-0.158)
Player: 43.48% (G:17.39% B:0.28%)
Opponent: 56.52% (G:16.34% B:0.53%)
Confidence: ±0.011 (-0.377..-0.354) - [0.0%]

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

-------
Variant
-------

XGID=-CB-cBDBa-aa-------cbBb-b-:1:-1:1:54:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| | | O O X O O | +---+
| | | O O X O O | | 2 |
| | | O | +---+
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | X |
| | | X O X |
| X | | X X O X X |
| O O O X | | X X O X X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+

Pip count X: 97 O: 145 X-O: 0-0

Cube: 2, O own cube
X to play 54

1. Rollout¹ 21/17 21/16 eq:-0.356
Player: 44.75% (G:16.22% B:0.43%)
Opponent: 55.25% (G:17.72% B:0.44%)
Confidence: ±0.009 (-0.365..-0.347) - [99.6%]

2. Rollout¹ 21/12 eq:-0.376 (-0.020)
Player: 43.93% (G:14.67% B:0.45%)
Opponent: 56.07% (G:16.51% B:0.45%)
Confidence: ±0.012 (-0.388..-0.364) - [0.4%]

3. Rollout¹ 21/17 6/1 eq:-0.392 (-0.036)
Player: 42.80% (G:17.31% B:0.50%)
Opponent: 57.20% (G:18.34% B:0.52%)
Confidence: ±0.011 (-0.402..-0.381) - [0.0%]

4. Rollout¹ 7/3 7/2 eq:-0.405 (-0.049)
Player: 42.55% (G:15.99% B:0.25%)
Opponent: 57.45% (G:16.96% B:0.61%)
Confidence: ±0.011 (-0.416..-0.394) - [0.0%]

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

---
Tim Chow