On 5/15/2022 7:54 AM,
peps...@gmail.com wrote:
> A while ago, I asked for positions in money play where ND and D/T are
> both optimal.
>
> It looks like I may very well have hit on a position in an OTB game that
> answers my own question! Although XG sees a difference by 0.001 or
> 0.002, it's quite likely to be some type of roundoff pasta, meaning that there's no difference at all.
>
> I was very surprised at the take though. I remember being taught that
> a closeout of two checkers on the bar is double and close take even
> when the opponent has removed all 13 other checkers.
> XG's remaining checkers on the deuce point, makes XG's bearoff much
> slower. It seems that what I was told (in the early days of modern bg
> theory) is just wrong.
This position rolls out to a pass. But should we trust the rollout?
XGID=bBBBCBB-------A--A-----b--:1:1:1:00:0:0:0:0:10
X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X X | | O |
| | | O |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | O | |
| | O | |
| | | X | +---+
| | | X X X X X X | | 2 |
| | | X X X X X X | +---+
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 77 O: 54 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, X own cube
X on roll, cube action
Analyzed in Rollout
No redouble
Player Winning Chances: 78.92% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 21.08% (G:0.01% B:0.00%)
Redouble/Take
Player Winning Chances: 79.15% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 20.85% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Cubeful Equities:
No redouble: +0.998 (-0.002)
Redouble/Take: +1.029 (+0.029)
Redouble/Pass: +1.000
Best Cube action: Redouble / Pass
Rollout:
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+
Search interval: Large
Confidence No Double: ± 0.002 (+0.995..+1.000)
Confidence Double: ± 0.009 (+1.020..+1.038)
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release
---
Tim Chow