3-away/2-away cube action

[Timothy Chow]

XGID=-b---BECA---bB--a--eb--cB-:0:0:1:00:4:5:0:7:10

Score is X:4 O:5 7 pt.(s) match.
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O | | O O O X |
| X | | O O O X |
| | | O O |
| | | O |
| | | O |
| |BAR| |
| | | X |
| | | X |
| X | | X |
| O X | | X X O |
| O X X | | X X O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 143 O: 129 X-O: 4-5/7
Cube: 1
X on roll, cube action

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Tim Chow

[Robert Zimmerman]

Pretty sure it's a D/T for money as there are several market losing sequences. So for the 4-away and 3-away scores I think it's a double. For the opponent at 4-away it looks gammonish enough to pass, that is, there's plenty of contact left. Still, at the moment X looks to win a fair amount from priming or escaping, and not via a large number of gammons (as with an early blitzing game), i.e. not enough for O to take at this score where gammon value on a 2 cube is about half.

Bob

[Timothy Chow]

I underestimated how bad that dilly builder on the 2pt is. XG says
this is a big pass. O would rather have that dilly builder all the
way back on X's 3pt (see variant).

Analyzed in Rollout
No double
Player Winning Chances: 64.91% (G:22.46% B:1.66%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 35.09% (G:12.02% B:1.37%)
Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 65.14% (G:22.75% B:2.92%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 34.86% (G:13.32% B:2.89%)

Cubeful Equities:
No double: +0.864 (-0.136)
Double/Take: +1.117 (+0.117)
Double/Pass: +1.000

Best Cube action: Double / Pass

Rollout:
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Confidence No Double: ± 0.011 (+0.854..+0.875)
Confidence Double: ± 0.016 (+1.101..+1.133)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release, MET: Kazaross XG2

-------
Variant
-------

XGID=-b-a-BECA---bB--a--eb--bB-:0:0:1:00:4:5:0:7:10

Score is X:4 O:5 7 pt.(s) match.
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O | | O O O X |
| X | | O O O X |
| | | O |
| | | O |
| | | O |

| |BAR| |
| | | X |
| | | X |
| X | | X |
| O X | | X X O |

| O X X | | X X O O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 143 O: 149 X-O: 4-5/7

Cube: 1
X on roll, cube action

Analyzed in Rollout
No double
Player Winning Chances: 62.85% (G:23.55% B:3.87%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 37.15% (G:13.08% B:1.69%)
Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 62.65% (G:23.83% B:6.58%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 37.35% (G:13.68% B:2.61%)

Cubeful Equities:
No double: +0.823 (-0.177)
Double/Take: +1.010 (+0.010)
Double/Pass: +1.000

Best Cube action: Double / Pass

Rollout:
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Confidence No Double: ± 0.014 (+0.809..+0.837)
Confidence Double: ± 0.018 (+0.992..+1.028)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release, MET: Kazaross XG2

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Tim Chow