55 to play

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Timothy Chow

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May 7, 2022, 7:49:13 PMMay 7
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XGID=--BA--DB--a-cBc--b-ccB-AA-:0:0:1:55:0:0:0:0:10

X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O O | | O O X X X |
| X O O | | O O X |
| O | | O O |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | X |
| O | | X |
| O X | | X X |
| O O X | | X X X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 160 O: 136 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 55

---
Tim Chow

Timothy Chow

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May 9, 2022, 10:47:25 PMMay 9
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Usually, when we're behind in the pip count, we need to stay back for
more contact. Following that principle, I played 23/3, but XG says I
should have played 23/13 21/16(2). I think the primary reason is that
O has a blot in the outfield that we can harass with 21/16(2); the other
thing is that after the roll, X is not so far behind in the race any
more. For comparison, see the variant below, in which I have moved O's
blot to her 11pt.

1. Rollout¹ 23/13 21/16(2) eq:-0.532
Player: 35.78% (G:5.21% B:0.12%)
Opponent: 64.22% (G:10.44% B:0.41%)
Confidence: ±0.011 (-0.544..-0.521) - [100.0%]

2. Rollout¹ 23/3 eq:-0.619 (-0.086)
Player: 32.37% (G:3.96% B:0.08%)
Opponent: 67.63% (G:6.27% B:0.26%)
Confidence: ±0.011 (-0.630..-0.608) - [0.0%]

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release

-------
Variant
-------

XGID=--BA--DB----cBd--b-ccB-AA-:1:1:1:55:0:0:0:0:10

X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O O | | O O X X X |
| X O O | | O O X |
| O | | O O |
| O | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | X |
| O | | X | +---+
| O X | | X X | | 2 |
| O X | | X X X | +---+
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 160 O: 132 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, X own cube
X to play 55

1. Rollout¹ 23/3 eq:-0.356
Player: 29.31% (G:3.04% B:0.07%)
Opponent: 70.69% (G:6.40% B:0.25%)
Confidence: ±0.003 (-0.360..-0.353) - [100.0%]

2. Rollout¹ 23/13 21/16(2) eq:-0.367 (-0.011)
Player: 30.46% (G:3.87% B:0.10%)
Opponent: 69.54% (G:11.38% B:0.33%)
Confidence: ±0.003 (-0.371..-0.364) - [0.0%]

¹ 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release

---
Tim Chow
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