# Pay now, pay how?

13 views

### Timothy Chow

May 10, 2022, 7:02:03 AMMay 10
to
XGID=-EAaCBB-----bB---a-bbbcb--:0:0:1:63:0:0:0:0:10

X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O | | O O O O O |
| X | | O O O O O |
| | | O |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | X |
| | | X |
| | | X X |
| O | | X X X X |
| O | | X X X O X X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 67 O: 99 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 63

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Tim Chow

### Timothy Chow

May 12, 2022, 9:46:42 AMMay 12
to
Here, I just made the DMP play of 13/10 13/7. Chris Bray might
call this a "one-roll proposition"; if this next exchange goes
well for X, then he has practically locked up the game.

Sadly for me, XG dings my play for losing too many gammons.

1. Rollout¹ 13/4 eq:+0.220
Player: 52.26% (G:1.75% B:0.02%)
Opponent: 47.74% (G:3.78% B:0.10%)
Confidence: ±0.002 (+0.218..+0.222) - [100.0%]

2. Rollout¹ 13/10 13/7 eq:+0.102 (-0.118)
Player: 55.46% (G:1.27% B:0.01%)
Opponent: 44.54% (G:9.69% B:0.38%)
Confidence: ±0.002 (+0.100..+0.104) - [0.0%]

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release

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DMP
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XGID=-EAaCBB-----bB---a-bbbcb--:0:0:1:63:0:0:0:1:10

X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0 1 pt.(s) match.
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O | | O O O O O |
| X | | O O O O O |
| | | O |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | X |
| | | X |
| | | X X |
| O | | X X X X |
| O | | X X X O X X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 67 O: 99 X-O: 0-0/1
Cube: 1
X to play 63

1. Rollout¹ 13/10 13/7 eq:+0.100
Player: 55.02% (G:2.70% B:0.02%)
Opponent: 44.98% (G:5.26% B:0.22%)
Confidence: ±0.002 (+0.098..+0.102) - [100.0%]

2. Rollout¹ 13/4 eq:+0.036 (-0.064)
Player: 51.82% (G:2.88% B:0.03%)
Opponent: 48.18% (G:3.42% B:0.05%)
Confidence: ±0.002 (+0.034..+0.038) - [0.0%]

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release, MET: Kazaross XG2

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Tim Chow