Double from the bar?

[Timothy Chow]

XGID=----bCDCBB--------a-bcaccA:0:0:1:00:0:0:0:0:10

X:Player 2 O:Player 1
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| O | | O O O O O |
| | | O O O O |
| | | O O O |
| | | |
| | X | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | X |
| X | | X X |
| X X X | | X X O |
| X X X | | X X O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 119 O: 83 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X on roll, cube action

---
Tim Chow

[ah...Clem]

A hit is a market loser and I count 13. A dance is almost as good as
long as O doesn't roll a joker like 66, 63, or 61. So, O'Hagen's law
says ship it.

16 dancing numbers for Xx and over 20 covers for O says take.

D/T.

[Timothy Chow]

I thought this was a pass. O has two checkers behind X's five-prime,
and is already crunching her board. Even if she doesn't get hit right
away, there's a good chance that her forward position will continue to
deteriorate.

However, XG says it's a clear take. Evidently, O's position has more
resilience than I gave it credit for. For example, there's a decent
chance that I will dance several times against her four- or five-point
board while she escapes with sixes. Or even if I come in, I could get
hit again. At the moment, O's board is still rather strong and she does
have a significant lead in the pip count, which are assets that I
undervalued.

Analyzed in Rollout
No double
Player Winning Chances: 70.23% (G:14.71% B:0.60%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 29.77% (G:3.88% B:0.02%)
Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 70.54% (G:14.83% B:0.58%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 29.46% (G:3.96% B:0.02%)

Cubeful Equities:
No double: +0.790 (-0.109)
Double/Take: +0.899
Double/Pass: +1.000 (+0.101)

Best Cube action: Double / Take

Rollout:
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Confidence No Double: ± 0.010 (+0.781..+0.800)
Confidence Double: ± 0.014 (+0.885..+0.914)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release

---
Tim Chow