Late blitz cube action

[Timothy Chow]

XGID=aBABABCB----bA---bAbbdb---:1:1:1:00:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O X | | O O O O |
| O | | O O O O |
| | | O |
| | | O |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | O | |
| | | |
| | | X | +---+
| O X | | X X X X | | 2 |
| O X | | X X X X X X | +---+
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 87 O: 111 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, X own cube
X on roll, cube action

---
Tim Chow

[Timothy Chow]

In general, I still have a tendency to cash when XG says I should
play on, and I have been trying to correct that tendency. Here I
was inclined to cash, but decided that it was such a big pass that
I should try playing on. XG says that was a huge mistake. But as
you can see from the variants, changing the position by a pip or two
can make a huge difference. In particular, if X has not made the
1pt already, then he retains priming potential even if O enters on
the 1pt.

Analyzed in Rollout
No redouble
Player Winning Chances: 76.35% (G:23.68% B:0.10%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 23.65% (G:4.96% B:0.18%)
Redouble/Take
Player Winning Chances: 76.58% (G:23.76% B:0.10%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 23.42% (G:5.07% B:0.20%)

Cubeful Equities:
No redouble: +0.802 (-0.198)
Redouble/Take: +1.277 (+0.277)
Redouble/Pass: +1.000

Best Cube action: Redouble / Pass

Rollout:
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Confidence No Double: ± 0.004 (+0.798..+0.806)
Confidence Double: ± 0.009 (+1.268..+1.287)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

---------
Variant 1
---------

XGID=aABBABCB----bA---bAbbdb---:1:1:1:00:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O X | | O O O O |
| O | | O O O O |
| | | O |
| | | O |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | O | |
| | | |
| | | X | +---+
| O X | | X X X X | | 2 |
| O X | | X X X X X X | +---+
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+

Pip count X: 88 O: 111 X-O: 0-0

Cube: 2, X own cube
X on roll, cube action

Analyzed in Rollout
No redouble
Player Winning Chances: 82.16% (G:27.27% B:0.15%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 17.84% (G:3.18% B:0.19%)
Redouble/Take
Player Winning Chances: 82.65% (G:27.79% B:0.15%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 17.35% (G:4.00% B:0.31%)

Cubeful Equities:
No redouble: +0.969 (-0.031)
Redouble/Take: +1.672 (+0.672)
Redouble/Pass: +1.000

Best Cube action: Redouble / Pass

Rollout:
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Confidence No Double: ± 0.004 (+0.965..+0.974)
Confidence Double: ± 0.010 (+1.662..+1.681)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

---------
Variant 2
---------

XGID=aABABBCB----bA---bAbbdb---:1:1:1:00:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O X | | O O O O |
| O | | O O O O |
| | | O |
| | | O |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | O | |
| | | |
| | | X | +---+
| O X | | X X X X | | 2 |
| O X | | X X X X X X | +---+
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+

Pip count X: 89 O: 111 X-O: 0-0

Cube: 2, X own cube
X on roll, cube action

Analyzed in Rollout
No redouble
Player Winning Chances: 84.13% (G:28.40% B:0.16%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 15.87% (G:2.97% B:0.17%)
Redouble/Take
Player Winning Chances: 84.66% (G:28.66% B:0.16%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 15.34% (G:3.58% B:0.31%)

Cubeful Equities:
No redouble: +1.028
Redouble/Take: +1.784 (+0.755)
Redouble/Pass: +1.000 (-0.028)

Best Cube action: Too good to redouble / Pass
Percentage of wrong take needed to make the double decision right: 3.6%

Rollout:
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Confidence No Double: ± 0.004 (+1.024..+1.032)
Confidence Double: ± 0.009 (+1.774..+1.793)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

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Tim Chow