Lots of ways to blunder

[Timothy Chow]

XGID=---a-BDaB-BAbC---b-bc-bbA-:0:0:1:31:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O | | O O O O X |
| X O | | O O O O |
| X | | O |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | X |
| | | X |
| O X X | | X X |
| O X X X O | | X X O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 144 O: 119 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 31

---
Tim Chow

[Timothy Chow]

With O having a four-point board, I thought that hitting loose in my
board was too dangerous. But X is far behind in the pip count, so
there is considerable upside to hitting twice if X is not hit back.

1. Rollout¹ 8/7* 6/3* eq:-0.191
Player: 47.60% (G:15.37% B:0.65%)
Opponent: 52.40% (G:30.15% B:4.08%)
Confidence: ±0.013 (-0.204..-0.178) - [100.0%]

2. Rollout¹ 11/7* eq:-0.229 (-0.038)
Player: 46.16% (G:12.15% B:0.54%)
Opponent: 53.84% (G:26.21% B:0.94%)
Confidence: ±0.015 (-0.243..-0.214) - [0.0%]

3. Rollout¹ 10/7* 7/6 eq:-0.302 (-0.111)
Player: 44.40% (G:12.40% B:0.63%)
Opponent: 55.60% (G:27.60% B:1.25%)
Confidence: ±0.011 (-0.313..-0.291) - [0.0%]

4. Rollout¹ 10/7* 6/5 eq:-0.334 (-0.143)
Player: 44.36% (G:11.59% B:0.54%)
Opponent: 55.64% (G:30.94% B:2.98%)
Confidence: ±0.014 (-0.348..-0.320) - [0.0%]

5. Rollout¹ 11/10 6/3* eq:-0.430 (-0.238)
Player: 40.71% (G:11.25% B:0.56%)
Opponent: 59.29% (G:30.48% B:0.75%)
Confidence: ±0.020 (-0.450..-0.409) - [0.0%]

6. Rollout¹ 11/8 6/5 eq:-0.477 (-0.286)
Player: 39.50% (G:8.68% B:0.42%)
Opponent: 60.50% (G:23.72% B:0.32%)
Confidence: ±0.012 (-0.490..-0.465) - [0.0%]

7. Rollout¹ 10/7* 8/7 eq:-0.489 (-0.298)
Player: 41.71% (G:10.60% B:0.55%)
Opponent: 58.29% (G:33.12% B:3.09%)
Confidence: ±0.019 (-0.509..-0.470) - [0.0%]

8. Rollout¹ 8/5 8/7* eq:-0.501 (-0.310)
Player: 39.94% (G:11.02% B:0.48%)
Opponent: 60.06% (G:30.70% B:1.56%)
Confidence: ±0.018 (-0.519..-0.484) - [0.0%]

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

-------
Variant
-------

XGID=---a-BDaB-BAbC----bbcbb-A-:1:1:1:31:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O | | O O O O X |
| X O | | O O O O |
| X | | O |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | X |

| | | X | +---+
| O X X | | X X | | 2 |
| O X X X O | | X X O | +---+
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 144 O: 121 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, X own cube
X to play 31

1. Rollout¹ 11/7* eq:-0.380
Player: 36.00% (G:9.36% B:0.54%)
Opponent: 64.00% (G:33.09% B:1.02%)
Confidence: ±0.010 (-0.390..-0.371) - [94.9%]

2. Rollout¹ 8/7* 6/3* eq:-0.393 (-0.012)
Player: 37.34% (G:11.16% B:0.54%)
Opponent: 62.66% (G:35.54% B:4.89%)
Confidence: ±0.011 (-0.404..-0.382) - [5.1%]

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

---
Tim Chow

[ah....Clem]

Race says bold, boards say safe, so no idea which way is up here. I'll
hit and slot the bar with 11/7* and hope it's not a trip to BK.

--
Ah....Clem
The future is fun, the future is fair.

[Stick Rice]

I would have played 11/7* here. Part of the equation I'm speculating that makes 7* 3* correct is when things go fairly wrong for us the opponent never sends us a cube we can take. That inefficient cube may make the difference in the plays. If we put the cube on our side I suspect 11/7* is correct and with the opponent owning the cube we revert back to the blitz.

Stick