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Aug 24, 2023, 8:50:55 AMAug 24

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XGID=---a-BDaB-BAbC---b-bc-bbA-:0:0:1:31:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game

+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+

| X O | | O O O O X |

| X O | | O O O O |

| X | | O |

| | | |

| | | |

| |BAR| |

| | | |

| | | X |

| | | X |

| O X X | | X X |

| O X X X O | | X X O |

+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+

Pip count X: 144 O: 119 X-O: 0-0

Cube: 1

X to play 31

---

Tim Chow

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game

+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+

| X O | | O O O O X |

| X O | | O O O O |

| X | | O |

| | | |

| | | |

| |BAR| |

| | | |

| | | X |

| | | X |

| O X X | | X X |

| O X X X O | | X X O |

+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+

Pip count X: 144 O: 119 X-O: 0-0

Cube: 1

X to play 31

---

Tim Chow

Aug 26, 2023, 9:31:52 AMAug 26

to

board was too dangerous. But X is far behind in the pip count, so

there is considerable upside to hitting twice if X is not hit back.

1. Rollout¹ 8/7* 6/3* eq:-0.191

Player: 47.60% (G:15.37% B:0.65%)

Opponent: 52.40% (G:30.15% B:4.08%)

Confidence: ±0.013 (-0.204..-0.178) - [100.0%]

2. Rollout¹ 11/7* eq:-0.229 (-0.038)

Player: 46.16% (G:12.15% B:0.54%)

Opponent: 53.84% (G:26.21% B:0.94%)

Confidence: ±0.015 (-0.243..-0.214) - [0.0%]

3. Rollout¹ 10/7* 7/6 eq:-0.302 (-0.111)

Player: 44.40% (G:12.40% B:0.63%)

Opponent: 55.60% (G:27.60% B:1.25%)

Confidence: ±0.011 (-0.313..-0.291) - [0.0%]

4. Rollout¹ 10/7* 6/5 eq:-0.334 (-0.143)

Player: 44.36% (G:11.59% B:0.54%)

Opponent: 55.64% (G:30.94% B:2.98%)

Confidence: ±0.014 (-0.348..-0.320) - [0.0%]

5. Rollout¹ 11/10 6/3* eq:-0.430 (-0.238)

Player: 40.71% (G:11.25% B:0.56%)

Opponent: 59.29% (G:30.48% B:0.75%)

Confidence: ±0.020 (-0.450..-0.409) - [0.0%]

6. Rollout¹ 11/8 6/5 eq:-0.477 (-0.286)

Player: 39.50% (G:8.68% B:0.42%)

Opponent: 60.50% (G:23.72% B:0.32%)

Confidence: ±0.012 (-0.490..-0.465) - [0.0%]

7. Rollout¹ 10/7* 8/7 eq:-0.489 (-0.298)

Player: 41.71% (G:10.60% B:0.55%)

Opponent: 58.29% (G:33.12% B:3.09%)

Confidence: ±0.019 (-0.509..-0.470) - [0.0%]

8. Rollout¹ 8/5 8/7* eq:-0.501 (-0.310)

Player: 39.94% (G:11.02% B:0.48%)

Opponent: 60.06% (G:30.70% B:1.56%)

Confidence: ±0.018 (-0.519..-0.484) - [0.0%]

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.

Dice Seed: 271828

Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

-------

Variant

-------

XGID=---a-BDaB-BAbC----bbcbb-A-:1:1:1:31:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game

+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+

| X O | | O O O O X |

| X O | | O O O O |

| X | | O |

| | | |

| | | |

| |BAR| |

| | | |

| | | X |

| O X X | | X X | | 2 |

| O X X X O | | X X O | +---+

+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+

Pip count X: 144 O: 121 X-O: 0-0

Cube: 2, X own cube

X to play 31

1. Rollout¹ 11/7* eq:-0.380

Player: 36.00% (G:9.36% B:0.54%)

Opponent: 64.00% (G:33.09% B:1.02%)

Confidence: ±0.010 (-0.390..-0.371) - [94.9%]

2. Rollout¹ 8/7* 6/3* eq:-0.393 (-0.012)

Player: 37.34% (G:11.16% B:0.54%)

Opponent: 62.66% (G:35.54% B:4.89%)

Confidence: ±0.011 (-0.404..-0.382) - [5.1%]

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.

Dice Seed: 271828

Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

---

Tim Chow

Aug 30, 2023, 9:20:26 PMAug 30

to

hit and slot the bar with 11/7* and hope it's not a trip to BK.

--

Ah....Clem

The future is fun, the future is fair.

Sep 27, 2023, 10:53:36 AMSep 27

to

Stick

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