Hit 2? 3

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Timothy Chow

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May 9, 2022, 8:54:36 AMMay 9
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XGID=-a--C-E-CaA-d-----bcBb-bA-:0:0:1:51:0:0:0:0:10

X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| O | | O X O O X |
| O | | O X O O |
| | | O |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | X |
| O | | X |
| O X | | X X |
| O X | | X X |
| O X O X | | X X O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 140 O: 136 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 51

---
Tim Chow

Timothy Chow

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May 11, 2022, 9:21:21 AMMay 11
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The primary alternative to the double hit is to just make the 5pt. But
XG says that making the 5pt is a whopper. Evidently, making the 5pt
does not do a good enough job of containing O's straggler. See the
variant for comparison.

1. Rollout¹ 10/9* 6/1* eq:+0.193
Player: 52.16% (G:23.27% B:0.43%)
Opponent: 47.84% (G:12.06% B:0.58%)
Confidence: ±0.016 (+0.177..+0.209) - [100.0%]

2. Rollout¹ 10/5 6/5 eq:+0.085 (-0.108)
Player: 50.28% (G:15.47% B:0.33%)
Opponent: 49.72% (G:6.78% B:0.34%)
Confidence: ±0.013 (+0.073..+0.098) - [0.0%]

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release

-------
Variant
-------

XGID=-a--C-EBAaA-d-----bcBb-bA-:0:0:1:51:0:0:0:0:10

X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| O | | O X O O X |
| O | | O X O O |
| | | O |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | X |
| O | | X |
| O | | X X |
| O X | | X X |
| O X O X X | | X X O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 138 O: 136 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 51

1. Rollout¹ 10/5 6/5 eq:+0.331
Player: 56.15% (G:20.18% B:0.45%)
Opponent: 43.85% (G:7.77% B:0.30%)
Confidence: ±0.007 (+0.324..+0.338) - [100.0%]

2. Rollout¹ 10/9* 6/1* eq:+0.301 (-0.030)
Player: 54.00% (G:27.37% B:0.46%)
Opponent: 46.00% (G:13.73% B:0.82%)
Confidence: ±0.008 (+0.293..+0.309) - [0.0%]

¹ 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release

---
Tim Chow
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