Hit or make the 4pt?

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Timothy Chow

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May 13, 2022, 9:22:27 AMMay 13
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XGID=-a---CC-CaA-dC---b-c-bbAA-:0:0:1:64:0:0:0:0:10

X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O | | O O O X X |
| X O | | O O O |
| X | | O |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| O | | |
| O X | | X X |
| O X | | X X |
| O X O X | | X X O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 153 O: 140 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 64

---
Tim Chow

atila...@gmail.com

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May 14, 2022, 11:52:23 AMMay 14
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13 Mayıs 2022 Cuma tarihinde saat 16:22:27 UTC+3 itibarıyla Tim Chow şunları yazdı:
Hitting is not a wrong theme, actually. The problem is that there is no better option to do with six. I don't want to give the initiative to the opponent by playing 24/18. Even with 43, XG does justice to the hitting move.

Timothy Chow

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May 15, 2022, 3:40:02 PMMay 15
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atilamalcok suggests that the drawback with hitting is that X has no
good 6. It's true that 24/18 isn't a great 6, but it's not terrible
either, especially when O is on the bar. At DMP, 24/18 13/9* is a
reasonable play according to XG (see rollout below). However, all
those blots do leave X vulnerable to getting gammoned.

1. Rollout¹ 10/4 8/4 eq:-0.037
Player: 48.96% (G:17.86% B:0.74%)
Opponent: 51.04% (G:17.42% B:0.80%)
Confidence: ±0.013 (-0.050..-0.024) - [100.0%]

2. Rollout¹ 24/18 13/9* eq:-0.127 (-0.090)
Player: 48.29% (G:14.96% B:0.85%)
Opponent: 51.71% (G:21.92% B:1.95%)
Confidence: ±0.014 (-0.141..-0.113) - [0.0%]

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release

---
DMP
---

XGID=-a---CC-CaA-dC---b-c-bbAA-:0:0:1:64:0:0:0:1:10

X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0 1 pt.(s) match.
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O | | O O O X X |
| X O | | O O O |
| X | | O |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| O | | |
| O X | | X X |
| O X | | X X |
| O X O X | | X X O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 153 O: 140 X-O: 0-0/1
Cube: 1
X to play 64

1. Rollout¹ 10/4 8/4 eq:-0.016
Player: 49.22% (G:17.43% B:1.41%)
Opponent: 50.78% (G:17.77% B:2.09%)
Confidence: ±0.005 (-0.020..-0.011) - [99.4%]

2. Rollout¹ 24/18 13/9* eq:-0.026 (-0.010)
Player: 48.72% (G:15.65% B:2.34%)
Opponent: 51.28% (G:24.51% B:4.65%)
Confidence: ±0.006 (-0.032..-0.019) - [0.6%]

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release, MET: Kazaross XG2

-------
Variant
-------

XGID=-a---CC-CaA-dD---b-c-bb-A-:0:0:1:64:0:0:0:0:10

X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O | | O O O X |
| X O | | O O O |
| X | | O |
| X | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| O | | |
| O X | | X X |
| O X | | X X |
| O X O X | | X X O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 143 O: 140 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 64

1. Rollout¹ 10/4 8/4 eq:+0.243
Player: 55.69% (G:16.94% B:0.49%)
Opponent: 44.31% (G:10.75% B:0.32%)
Confidence: ±0.006 (+0.237..+0.249) - [100.0%]

2. Rollout¹ 24/18 13/9* eq:+0.215 (-0.028)
Player: 56.82% (G:14.16% B:0.78%)
Opponent: 43.18% (G:15.78% B:0.73%)
Confidence: ±0.007 (+0.208..+0.221) - [0.0%]

¹ 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release

---
Tim Chow
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