Double 4's to play

[Timothy Chow]

XGID=-aB---D-EA--aBa-bcbcb-A---:1:1:1:44:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O O O O | | O O X |
| X O O O | | O O |
| O | | O |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| X | | |
| X | | X |
| X | | X | +---+
| X | | X X | | 2 |
| O X X | | X X O | +---+
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 125 O: 132 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, X own cube
X to play 44

---
Tim Chow

[Timothy Chow]

Being significant ahead in the pip count, I didn't want to risk getting
another checker sent behind O's five-prime, so I played 13/9(2) 8/4(2).
But X is the clear underdog here, and attacking is his best chance to
turn the game around. He has plenty of checkers in the zone, and has
a stronger board than O does. Plus, O has other blots that could get
picked up. What if O didn't have those outfield blots? See the
variant below.

1. Rollout¹ 9/1* 8/4(2) eq:-0.373
Player: 28.94% (G:9.59% B:0.18%)
Opponent: 71.06% (G:13.71% B:0.69%)
Confidence: ±0.008 (-0.381..-0.365) - [100.0%]

2. Rollout¹ 9/5 8/4(3) eq:-0.484 (-0.112)
Player: 26.26% (G:8.82% B:0.30%)
Opponent: 73.74% (G:17.34% B:0.86%)
Confidence: ±0.009 (-0.494..-0.475) - [0.0%]

3. Rollout¹ 13/9(2) 8/4(2) eq:-0.485 (-0.112)
Player: 24.36% (G:6.29% B:0.17%)
Opponent: 75.64% (G:10.97% B:0.41%)
Confidence: ±0.008 (-0.493..-0.477) - [0.0%]

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

-------
Variant
-------

XGID=-aB---D-EA---Bb-bcbcb-A---:1:1:1:44:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O O O O | | O O X |
| X O O O O | | O O |
| O | | O |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| X | | |
| X | | X |
| X | | X | +---+
| X | | X X | | 2 |

| X X | | X X O | +---+
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+

Pip count X: 125 O: 130 X-O: 0-0

Cube: 2, X own cube
X to play 44

1. Rollout¹ 9/1* 8/4(2) eq:-0.400
Player: 28.66% (G:7.50% B:0.11%)
Opponent: 71.34% (G:13.58% B:0.63%)
Confidence: ±0.008 (-0.408..-0.392) - [99.4%]

2. Rollout¹ 13/9 8/4(3) eq:-0.414 (-0.014)
Player: 27.80% (G:7.34% B:0.16%)
Opponent: 72.20% (G:13.00% B:0.51%)
Confidence: ±0.007 (-0.422..-0.407) - [0.6%]

3. Rollout¹ 13/9(2) 8/4(2) eq:-0.451 (-0.051)
Player: 25.86% (G:6.32% B:0.15%)
Opponent: 74.14% (G:10.94% B:0.37%)
Confidence: ±0.007 (-0.458..-0.444) - [0.0%]

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release