# How to play that 4-3?

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### neunert

Nov 12, 1997, 3:00:00 AM11/12/97
to

Hi again!

michi...@student.uni-augsburg.de

Michi

### neunert

Nov 12, 1997, 3:00:00 AM11/12/97
to

Dear all!

This position arose last night when playing my dearest moneygame opponent
on FIBS.

It`s a 5-point-match, X (me) is trailing 0:3 and O holds a 2-cube.

I rolled 4-3 in the following position and moved 10-7 10-6; my opponent hit
and told me after it was clear I lost the game that he won`t have played
the play I did. He thinks 6-2 6-3 was clearly better.

Because I think that his move is absolutely not right we decided to show
the position around and to ask what the other (experts??) think about it.
(Yes, of course we made a bet on the outcome of this...:-))

5-Point-Match
O: 3 X: 0
______________________
|O O O O O | | O | 2-cube (on O`s side)
|O O O O O | | |
| O O | | |
| | | |
| | | |
| X | | |
| X X X | | |
| X X X O X | | X |
|X X X X O X | | X |
---------------------------------------

Just to make it clear: O`s outside checker is on his 9-pt., mine are on my
10-pt.

Any idea or comments are appreciated!

May the dice-gods be with you (when not playing me...;-))

Michi

### Stuart Katz, MD

Nov 13, 1997, 3:00:00 AM11/13/97
to

On 12 Nov 1997 12:47:32 GMT, "neunert"
<kim.n...@student.uni-augsburg.de> wrote:

>Dear all!
>
>This position arose last night when playing my dearest moneygame opponent
>on FIBS.
>
>It`s a 5-point-match, X (me) is trailing 0:3 and O holds a 2-cube.
>
>I rolled 4-3 in the following position and moved 10-7 10-6; my opponent hit
>and told me after it was clear I lost the game that he won`t have played
>the play I did. He thinks 6-2 6-3 was clearly better.
>
>Because I think that his move is absolutely not right we decided to show
>the position around and to ask what the other (experts??) think about it.
>(Yes, of course we made a bet on the outcome of this...:-))
>
>
> 5-Point-Match
> O: 3 X: 0

[I think this is the posted position; it's the one I analyzed]:

____________________
|O O O O O | | O | 2-cube (on O`s side)
|O O O O O | | |
|O O | | |
| | | |
| | | |
| X | | |
| X X X | | |
| X X X O X| | X |
|X X X X O X| | X |
---------------------------------------

>Just to make it clear: O`s outside checker is on his 9-pt., mine are on my
>10-pt.
>
>
>Any idea or comments are appreciated!
>
>May the dice-gods be with you (when not playing me...;-))
>
>Michi

It's pay now or pay later, and later comes real soon. This is one of
the cases where it looks right to break the general rule and pay now.

Kit Woolsey's recent book "New Ideas in Backgammon" had a series of
these problems. To me the take home message was to assess 1)whether
your position would improve or deteriorate by waiting, 2)whether your
opponent would improve or deteriorate by your waiting, and 3)whether

Here playing 10/6 10/7 obviously risks a serious but not fatal loss of
equity if O hits [11/36], but leaves X almost completely cleared with
a good racing edge if the shot is missed.

Delaying the potential exposure by giving up the 6-point with 6/2 6/3
is helpful only if X rolls doubles other than 55 on the next shake
[unless X rolls real small non-doubles and temporizes once more]; X
must leave the 9 point with any shake containing a 4 or greater. Since
O likely can go forward from the 9 and 5 points, X probably will leave
a shot after the next shake and likely will leave the blot higher than
the 7 point thus giving O increased shot equity from the indirects.

Using Woolsey's guidelines you see that paying now plays
constructively rather than deteriorating X's position for a more
likely shot next shake when O's board will be just as strong. If X is
hit in both scenarios life after death will probably be better with
the 6 point still intact. Finally, if you get away with leaving the
shot now you are indeed almost home free.

Does this balance the risk of suicide that happens when you play big,
O rolls a deuce and you dance with 44 on the next toss? JellyFish
thinks so. A level 6 rollout x216 for each play gave X 75.3% wins with
10/6 10/7 and 70.7% wins with 6/2 6/3.

Wx Gx Ex SD Neq
10/6 10/7 75.3 1.7 0.515 0.006 22,389
6/2 6/3 70.7 2.7 0.418 0.009 12,049

Stuart

### neunert

Nov 13, 1997, 3:00:00 AM11/13/97
to

It looks as rom has misunderstood the problem.

The two remaining outside checkers of X are placed on its 10 pt. and he
rolled 4-3. So there is no way to leave a double shot!

Please think up your evaluation again and then let me/us know the outcome!
:-)

Best regards,

Michi

rom <r...@vobis.net> schrieb im Beitrag
<01bc3710\$06e35f20\$89d2a8c1@default>...
>
>
> neunert <kim.n...@student.uni-augsburg.de> wrote in article
> <01bcef61\$50f60d60\$404c...@mnfcip04.Math.Uni-Augsburg.de>...

>
> > I rolled 4-3 in the following position and moved 10-7 10-6; my opponent
> hit
> > and told me after it was clear I lost the game that he won`t have
played
> > the play I did. He thinks 6-2 6-3 was clearly better.
>

> > 5-Point-Match
> > O: 3 X: 0

> > ______________________

> > |O O O O O | | O | 2-cube (on O`s side)
> > |O O O O O | | |
> > | O O | | |
> > | | | |
> > | | | |
> > | X | | |
> > | X X X | | |
> > | X X X O X | | X |
> > |X X X X O X | | X |
> > ---------------------------------------
> >
> > Just to make it clear: O`s outside checker is on his 9-pt., mine are on
> my
> > 10-pt.
> > Any idea or comments are appreciated!
>

----------------------------------------------------------------------------

> --
>
> Hello,
>
> I don't agree with 10/7, 10/6. It leaves a double shot and only 16 of 36
> O-shots continue your life in the next roll and the match. This while you
> are ahead in the game.
>
> This position is a classical pay now or pay later situation. I would
prefer
> the pay now with 10/3. So you will have a 5-point board including the
> checkers on the 6. If you will been hit and the chance to hit back, the
6
> point makes it more difficult for O to bring his man back from the bar.
> The 6/3, 6/2 play gives your opponent this extra chance whereas you buy a
> very small new chance of rolling good doubles like 3/3, 4/4, 6/6 followed
> by a good second roll. This will mostly not work.
>
> What i would suggest is, if you have the pay now or later situation than
> pay now,
> hold your position in your home board and minimize the O-shots with 10/3.
>
> George.
>

### Rowena Marsh

Nov 13, 1997, 3:00:00 AM11/13/97
to

rom wrote:
> <snip>

Just so that everyone knows, and no-one else asks me on fibs, this is not
from me :-)

Ro Marsh ("rom" on fibs)