Google Groups no longer supports new Usenet posts or subscriptions. Historical content remains viewable.
Dismiss

# Late-game 64 to play

1 view

### Timothy Chow

Aug 23, 2023, 8:53:33 AM8/23/23
to
XGID=--BC-CCbB-B----------accf-:0:0:1:64:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| | | O O O O |
| | | O O O |
| | | O O O |
| | | O |
| | | 6 |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | X X X |
| X X O | | X X X X |
| X X O | | X X X X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 82 O: 61 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 64

---
Tim Chow

### Timothy Chow

Aug 25, 2023, 8:35:11 AM8/25/23
to
XG's play of 10/4 8/4, volunteering a double shot, is startling at first
glance. But the point is that if it turns into a straight race (let's
say O rolls 54 next) then X is only about 50/50 to win, so he'd like to
hit a shot if he can. 10/4 8/4 makes a five-point board, and if O hits
(which she will if she can, except with a roll of 21), then X will
usually get a direct shot. And even if O rolls big and doesn't hit,
10/4 8/4 is a more efficient way to bear in for the race than 8/4 8/2.

1. Rollout¹ 10/4 8/4 eq:+0.243
Player: 54.74% (G:9.58% B:0.43%)
Opponent: 45.26% (G:0.35% B:0.00%)
Confidence: ±0.010 (+0.233..+0.252) - [100.0%]

2. Rollout¹ 8/4 8/2 eq:+0.165 (-0.078)
Player: 56.01% (G:2.05% B:0.05%)
Opponent: 43.99% (G:0.11% B:0.00%)
Confidence: ±0.008 (+0.157..+0.174) - [0.0%]

3. Rollout¹ 10/4 5/1 eq:+0.137 (-0.106)
Player: 53.31% (G:5.47% B:0.17%)
Opponent: 46.69% (G:0.60% B:0.00%)
Confidence: ±0.009 (+0.128..+0.145) - [0.0%]

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

---
Tim Chow

### ah....Clem

Aug 30, 2023, 9:15:50 PM8/30/23
to
Normally, a 20 pip deficit would imply maintaining contact, but with the
gain of 10 pips this roll, and dinging O for all those checkers on the
ace and deuce and open five and six points the race is almost even. So
I'll just clear the ten point and hope to roll well.

--
Ah....Clem
The future is fun, the future is fair.