XG's play of 10/4 8/4, volunteering a double shot, is startling at first
glance. But the point is that if it turns into a straight race (let's
say O rolls 54 next) then X is only about 50/50 to win, so he'd like to
hit a shot if he can. 10/4 8/4 makes a five-point board, and if O hits
(which she will if she can, except with a roll of 21), then X will
usually get a direct shot. And even if O rolls big and doesn't hit,
10/4 8/4 is a more efficient way to bear in for the race than 8/4 8/2.
1. Rollout¹ 10/4 8/4 eq:+0.243
Player: 54.74% (G:9.58% B:0.43%)
Opponent: 45.26% (G:0.35% B:0.00%)
Confidence: ±0.010 (+0.233..+0.252) - [100.0%]
2. Rollout¹ 8/4 8/2 eq:+0.165 (-0.078)
Player: 56.01% (G:2.05% B:0.05%)
Opponent: 43.99% (G:0.11% B:0.00%)
Confidence: ±0.008 (+0.157..+0.174) - [0.0%]
3. Rollout¹ 10/4 5/1 eq:+0.137 (-0.106)
Player: 53.31% (G:5.47% B:0.17%)
Opponent: 46.69% (G:0.60% B:0.00%)
Confidence: ±0.009 (+0.128..+0.145) - [0.0%]
¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release
---
Tim Chow