32S 53P 32P 61? 0-0 to 5

[Walt]

XGID=---Bb-D-B---cEb--c-e----B-:0:0:1:61:0:0:0:5:10

X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0 5 pt.(s) match.
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O O | | O X |
| X O O | | O X |
| X O | | O |
| X | | O |
| X | | O |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | X |
| O | | X |
| O X | | X O X |
| O X | | X O X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 159 O: 157 X-O: 0-0/5
Cube: 1
X to play 61


What's your play and why? No fair looking up the rollout.

--
//Walt

[Bradley K. Sherman]

Walt <walt_...@yahoo.com> wrote:
> +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
> | X O O | | O X |
> | X O O | | O X |
> | X O | | O |
> | X | | O |
> | X | | O |
> | |BAR| |
> | | | |
> | | | X |
> | O | | X |
> | O X | | X O X |
> | O X | | X O X |
> +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+

>Pip count X: 159 O: 157 X-O: 0-0/5, Cube:1, X to play 61

13/7, 6/5. So sue me.

--bks

[badgolferman]

I'll take the 7-point because I like to take the 7-point and at this
point it's worth it.

>No fair looking up the rollout.

Do people really do that before posting their answers? What for?

[Tim Chow]

Seems like Paul Weaver posted something like this on BGOnline
recently. Slotting in front of the anchor 6/5 is the right ace, I
think. X has a stronger board, and O has to break anchor to hit. As
for the 6, either 13/7 or 24/18 looks viable. Usually when the
opponent has an advanced anchor and we are still anchored on the 24pt,
splitting is indicated, but 24/18 leaves a lot of shots, including a
few double shots. I'll go with 13/7 6/5.

An alternative is just to make the bar, but O has no board and we
should be able to afford a bolder play than that, with more upside
when it works. The bar isn't too valuable when O has an advanced
anchor.
---
Tim Chow

[Walt]

On 5/29/2012 3:38 PM, Walt wrote:

XGID=---Bb-D-B---cEb--c-e----B-:0:0:1:61:0:0:0:5:10

X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0 5 pt.(s) match.
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O O | | O X |
| X O O | | O X |
| X O | | O |
| X | | O |
| X | | O |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | X |
| O | | X |
| O X | | X O X |
| O X | | X O X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 159 O: 157 X-O: 0-0/5
Cube: 1
X to play 61

Magriel admonishes against splitting and slotting simultaneously, so I
was reluctant to play 24/23 13/7 and favored making the bar point. BUt
the split and slot is correct here. Anybody care to hazard a guess why
the standard dicta doesn't apply here?




1. Rollout¹ 24/23 13/7 eq:-0.251
Player: 44.49% (G:11.25% B:0.72%)
Opponent: 55.51% (G:15.98% B:0.77%)
Confidence: ±0.013 (-0.265..-0.238) - [99.7%]
Duration: 27 minutes 54 seconds

2. Rollout¹ 13/7 6/5 eq:-0.279 (-0.027)
Player: 43.66% (G:11.47% B:0.67%)
Opponent: 56.34% (G:16.32% B:1.01%)
Confidence: ±0.015 (-0.293..-0.264) - [0.3%]
Duration: 29 minutes 18 seconds

3. Rollout¹ 24/23 24/18 eq:-0.281 (-0.030)
Player: 44.19% (G:9.32% B:0.41%)
Opponent: 55.81% (G:16.10% B:0.59%)
Confidence: ±0.012 (-0.293..-0.269) - [0.0%]
Duration: 26 minutes 26 seconds

4. Rollout¹ 24/18 6/5 eq:-0.297 (-0.046)
Player: 44.59% (G:10.07% B:0.71%)
Opponent: 55.41% (G:18.41% B:0.94%)
Confidence: ±0.014 (-0.311..-0.283) - [0.0%]
Duration: 27 minutes 52 seconds

5. Rollout¹ 13/7 8/7 eq:-0.345 (-0.094)
Player: 42.41% (G:9.98% B:0.48%)
Opponent: 57.59% (G:16.07% B:0.75%)
Confidence: ±0.014 (-0.359..-0.331) - [0.0%]
Duration: 26 minutes 40 seconds


¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller


eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.03, MET: Kazaross XG2

[Tim Chow]

On May 31, 2:13 pm, Walt <walt_ask...@yahoo.com> wrote:
> Magriel admonishes against splitting and slotting simultaneously, so I
> was reluctant to play 24/23 13/7 and favored making the bar point.  BUt
> the split and slot is correct here.  Anybody care to hazard a guess why
> the standard dicta doesn't apply here?

It's important to understand *why* splitting and slotting
simultaneously is often a bad play. Typically, it's because it gives
your opponent a lot of chances to attack. She might double hit. Or
she might hit you loose in her home board, and then it will probably
be difficult for you to simultaneously anchor and cover your home-
board slot, thereby allowing your opponent to continue to attack. Or
she might hit your slot, sending another checker back when you lack an
anchor.

Here, after 24/23 13/7, O doesn't have a lot of attacking potential.
You have the stronger board. Is O really going to hit you deep in her
board? With a 64 she'll probably make the bar point rather than point
on you. To hit you she has to break anchor. There's not that much
risk.

What surprises me a bit is that 13/7 6/5 comes out behind 24/23 13/7.
Just now I went to search for Paul Weaver's position that I mentioned
earlier. Here it is:

http://www.bgonline.org/forums/webbbs_config.pl?read=119481

It may be worth pondering the differences between Paul's position and
yours.

---
Tim Chow