Which point do you break?

[Timothy Chow]

XGID=-B--bCBBB-B--------bbbbeB-:1:1:1:54:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| | | O O O O O X |
| | | O O O O O X |
| | | O |
| | | O |
| | | O |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | X | +---+
| X X X | | X X O X | | 2 |
| X X X | | X X O X | +---+
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 127 O: 88 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, X own cube
X to play 54

---
Tim Chow

[Timothy Chow]

Dumping two blots into your board is generally not a good idea when
your opponent is eager for a good opportunity to break anchor, but
an important factor here is O's extremely inflexible position. For
example, if X maintains his 10pt then 51 and 61 are anti-jokers
for O.

1. Rollout¹ 7/3 7/2 eq:+0.054
Player: 46.66% (G:11.50% B:0.42%)
Opponent: 53.34% (G:15.50% B:0.98%)
Confidence: ±0.009 (+0.046..+0.063) - [100.0%]

2. Rollout¹ 10/6 10/5 eq:-0.045 (-0.099)
Player: 41.91% (G:9.08% B:0.31%)
Opponent: 58.09% (G:13.26% B:0.58%)
Confidence: ±0.008 (-0.053..-0.037) - [0.0%]

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

-------
Variant
-------

XGID=-B--bCBBB-B--------bbcbdB-:1:1:1:54:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| | | O O O O O X |
| | | O O O O O X |
| | | O O |
| | | O |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | X | +---+
| X X X | | X X O X | | 2 |
| X X X | | X X O X | +---+
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+

Pip count X: 127 O: 90 X-O: 0-0

Cube: 2, X own cube
X to play 54

1. Rollout¹ 10/6 10/5 eq:-0.168
Player: 38.01% (G:8.11% B:0.27%)
Opponent: 61.99% (G:15.01% B:0.71%)
Confidence: ±0.008 (-0.175..-0.160) - [99.7%]

2. Rollout¹ 7/3 7/2 eq:-0.183 (-0.015)
Player: 39.38% (G:8.69% B:0.26%)
Opponent: 60.62% (G:18.62% B:1.46%)
Confidence: ±0.007 (-0.190..-0.175) - [0.3%]

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

---
Tim Chow

[Stick Rice]

I don't think you're using anti-joker correctly.

Stick