gnubg's wrist
Pete
robotic entities, but to lose this race against gnubg is downright
ridiculous:
gnubg (O, 4 pts) vs. user (X, 0 pts) (Match to 11)
Game number 2
Match Information:
gnubg's rating: n/a
user's rating: n/a
Date: March 06, 2003
Event: n/a
Round: n/a
Place: n/a
Annotator: n/a
Comments: n/a
Move number 60: X to play 42
GNU Backgammon Position ID: v20DIADbLAAAAA
Match ID : QQlqAUAAAAAA
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+ O: gnubg (Cube: 2)
| | | O O O O O | 4 points
| | | O O O O O |
| | | O |
| | | O |
| | | 6 |
v| |BAR| | 11 point match
| | | | X
| | | | X
| | | | X
| | | X X X X | X Rolled 42
| O | | X X X X X | XX 0 points
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+ X: user
Pip counts: O 50, X 28
* user moves 6/off
Rolled 42:* 6/off
Output generated Thu Mar 06 22:46:39 2003
by GNU Backgammon 0.12 (Text Export version 1.33)
After I bore a man off, gnubg rolled: 66, 11, 22, 51, and 44.
Nothing serious...
Hub
Ya, real people using real dice NEVER roll lotsa doubles in a race and come
from way behind in real life. Never. Everybody knows computers cheat.
idiot
"Pete" <m...@here.net> wrote in message
news:v6ggai4...@corp.supernews.com...
Gregg Cattanach
a rollout Snowie shows it as 100% wins for X, so you must be WAY more than
1000 to 1 to win this one.
Of course, it didn't cheat, but it is a pretty good bad beat story :)
Gregg
"Pete" <m...@here.net> wrote in message
news:v6ggai4...@corp.supernews.com...
Albert Silver
> robotic entities, but to lose this race against gnubg is downright
> ridiculous:
My record so far is to win despite having only a 0.3% chance of
winning according to its statistics. I rolled 66, 66, 44, and 22 to
win. Furthermore, I could only win with two double 6s and 4 straight
doubles. The best I've seen GNU do was to beat me when it had about
1%.
Albert Silver
Hugh McNeil
getting hit:
Money session. Score X-O: 0-0
X on roll, cube action
+24-23-22-21-20-19-------18-17-16-15-14-13-+
| O O O O O O | | O |
| O O O O O | | |
| | | | S
| | | | n
| | | | o
| |BAR| | w
| | | | i
| X | | | e
| X X X | | |
| O X X X | | |
| O X O X X | | |
+-1--2--3--4--5--6--------7--8--9-10-11-12-+
Pipcount X: 37 O: 122 X-O: 0-0/Money (1)
Men Off X: 5 O: 0
CubeValue: 2, O owns Cube
"Pete" <m...@here.net> wrote in message
news:v6ggai4...@corp.supernews.com...
Hugh McNeil
Money session. Score X-O: 0-0
X on roll, cube action
+24-23-22-21-20-19-------18-17-16-15-14-13-+
| O O O O O O | | O |
| O O O O O | | |
| | | | S
| | | | n
| | | | o>
| |BAR| |
| | | | i
| X | | | e
| X X | | |
Douglas Zare
Gregg Cattanach wrote:
> That is a pretty remarkable parlay. The race is so hopeless that even with
> a rollout Snowie shows it as 100% wins for X, so you must be WAY more than
> 1000 to 1 to win this one.
I think it is about 2000-1 after the 4-2, and perhaps slightly more unlikely
before the 4-2. An immediate 6-6 would give 0.5% winning chances, an immediate
5-5 would give 0.4%, and an immediate 4-4 would give 0.2%, and these add up to
about one chance in 3200. I think the other ways to win add up to at least half
as much.
On FIBS, I won a match against Costello in which I needed to roll 3 working
sets while it failed to roll any double twice. I calculated the chance at about
3000 to 1, but that wasn't too surprising, since my experience level on FIBS
was greater.
A less likely event from real life: In a side event at the Boston Open, my
opponent and I rolled the same number 8 times to try to start the game. The
chance of that happening for any particular game is about 1 in 1.7 million, and
I certainly haven't played that many games. Of course, that was neither lucky
nor unlucky.
Something to keep in mind with bad-luck stories from real life is that there is
a good chance that they get garbled and exaggerated. A player complained that I
had rolled 5 doubles in a row after only 4 of my last 5 rolls were doubles.
Since it is about 20 times as likely to be able to make that mistake, if you
think there is one chance in 10 that a player would make that mistake then 2/3
of the stories you hear would be wrong.
If anyone thinks that they have found a pattern in the Mersenne twister rng,
please test it carefully, and then let everyone know, rather than the reverse.
Douglas Zare
Frank Mazza
defeat me in a non-contact bearoff; the next game I rolled 4 doubles
in a row and did the same thing to it back.
Play enough backgammon (live, against the bots and online) and you
will see things like that (and stranger) many times, and all perfectly
consistent with the laws of statistics.
Frank Mazza
Pete
Thanks for your insightful and thought-provoking comments.
Pete
Albert Silver
> opponent and I rolled the same number 8 times to try to start the game. The
> chance of that happening for any particular game is about 1 in 1.7 million, and
> I certainly haven't played that many games. Of course, that was neither lucky
> nor unlucky.
Last week on Gamesgrid I rolled 6 double 6s in a row. I imagine the
odds against this are pretty significant. Unfortunately I was on the
bar so it wasn't much help. :-)
Albert Silver
David Kinston
and just had to bring 2 men home and win a gammon - closed
board and 2 opp men on the bar. The only number blocked was 3.
So I rolled 33 3 times and was gammoned.
Real dice - real board - real money!!
About 37000 to 1, plus the rest of the bad luck "needed"
in order to be gammoned. Maybe 100,000 to 1 all up.
Somehow it has stuck in my memory for 8 years or so ...
It's why we play the game!
David Kinston
melbourne.au
"Douglas Zare" <za...@math.columbia.edu> wrote in message
news:3E68DDD1...@math.columbia.edu...
Gregg Cattanach
news:f9846eb9.0303...@posting.google.com...
If you are completely closed out, all your rolls from a GamesGrid imported
match end up showing as double-6. Did he have a point open where you could
have entered?
Gregg C.
Albert Silver
Yes, it was against a 3-point board.
Albert
Maxim Vovk
In February, at Truemoneygames.com, they have been giving out bonuses
of $25 for double 6s three times in a row. You could have got two
bonuses in one attempt :-)))
Max
kiwikiwi
> of $25 for double 6s three times in a row. You could have got two
> bonuses in one attempt :-))) ""
four to be exactly.
plo...@ukr.net (Maxim Vovk) wrote in message news:<b1aafddb.03031...@posting.google.com>...