62 to play ABDCC---b----ccd-b--B-:1:-1:1:62:2:3:0:5:10

[Walt]

XGID=a---ABDCC---b----ccd-b--B-:1:-1:1:62:2:3:0:5:10

X:You O:O
Score is X:2 O:3 5 pt.(s) match.
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| O O | | O O X | +---+
| O O | | O O X | | 2 |
| O O | | O | +---+
| | | O |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | O | |
| | | X |
| X X | | X |
| O X X | | X X |
| O X X | | X X X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 131 O: 128 X-O: 2-3/5
Cube: 2, O own cube
X to play 62

[Bradley K. Sherman]

Walt <walt_...@yahoo.com> wrote:
>Score is X:2 O:3 5 pt.(s) match.
> +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
> | O O | | O O X | +---+
> | O O | | O O X | | 2 |
> | O O | | O | +---+
> | | | O |
> | | | |
> | |BAR| |
> | | O | |
> | | | X |
> | X X | | X |
> | O X X | | X X |
> | O X X | | X X X |
> +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+

>Pip count X: 131 O: 128, X to play 62

I would play 24/16 automatically here. It would
occur to me that I'm increasing the chance of getting
gammoned, but I really don't have a good enough feel
for that frequency to overturn my desire to escape
rather than sit there waiting to get primed. If
running is a big blunder I will have learned something.

--bks

[peps...@gmail.com]

[peps...@gmail.com]

6/4 8/2 -- the 5 prime is essential, running is a blunder and Bradley has learned something. There's no reason not to make the 5 prime -- it's the safest play too.

[badgolferman]

6/4, 8/2.

[Walt]

On 11/1/2012 7:42 PM, Walt wrote:

There are basically three ideas here:

1) Escape a runner with 24/16

2) Make the 5 prime (then decide whether it's better to leave the blot
on the ace or the deuce)

3) Make the deuce point.

The 5 prime is the right idea by a huge margin that even the odd looking
7/1 6/4 is better than the other approaches.

I ran otb here. Note to self: solid 5 primes are very strong, and
broken 4 primes are not. No need to run yet, make the solid prime.

XGID=a---ABDCC---b----ccd-b--B-:1:-1:1:62:2:3:0:5:10

X:Player 1 O:Player 2

Score is X:2 O:3 5 pt.(s) match.
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| O O | | O O X | +---+
| O O | | O O X | | 2 |
| O O | | O | +---+
| | | O |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | O | |
| | | X |
| X X | | X |
| O X X | | X X |
| O X X | | X X X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 131 O: 128 X-O: 2-3/5
Cube: 2, O own cube
X to play 62

1. Rolloutš 8/2 6/4 eq:+0.198
Player: 51.16% (G:18.31% B:0.94%)
Opponent: 48.84% (G:15.18% B:3.67%)
Confidence: ą0.006 (+0.192..+0.204) - [100.0%]
Duration: 9 minutes 48 seconds

2. Rolloutš 7/1 6/4 eq:+0.148 (-0.050)
Player: 49.09% (G:17.42% B:1.11%)
Opponent: 50.91% (G:15.53% B:3.10%)
Confidence: ą0.006 (+0.142..+0.154) - [0.0%]
Duration: 9 minutes 40 seconds

3. Rolloutš 24/16 eq:+0.064 (-0.134)
Player: 46.52% (G:13.98% B:0.86%)
Opponent: 53.48% (G:17.38% B:2.24%)
Confidence: ą0.006 (+0.058..+0.069) - [0.0%]
Duration: 11 minutes 36 seconds

4. Rolloutš 8/2 4/2 eq:-0.076 (-0.274)
Player: 40.16% (G:12.69% B:0.44%)
Opponent: 59.84% (G:12.83% B:1.90%)
Confidence: ą0.005 (-0.081..-0.071) - [0.0%]
Duration: 9 minutes 32 seconds


š 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller


eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.03, MET: Kazaross XG2



--
//Walt