I think both Tim and I weren't being sufficiently environmentally friendly, here.
Beavering is only slightly wrong, and should be considered.
It's a big ND/T and double/beaver is better for X than D/T.
I was very surprised, because I was quite confident in my double (although
I was also quite sure about the take.)
Paul
Analyzed in Rollout
No double
Player Winning Chances: 55.35% (G:15.49% B:0.99%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 44.65% (G:9.35% B:0.39%)
Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 55.49% (G:15.74% B:1.09%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 44.51% (G:9.38% B:0.37%)
Cubeless Equities: No Double=+0.174, Double=+0.361
Cubeful Equities:
No double: +0.184
Double/Take: +0.042 (-0.142)
Double/Pass: +1.000 (+0.816)
Best Cube action: No double / Take
Percentage of wrong pass needed to make the double decision right: 12.9%
Rollout:
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Confidence No Double: ± 0.008 (+0.176..+0.191)
Confidence Double: ± 0.014 (+0.028..+0.056)
Double Decision confidence: 100.0%
Beaver Decision confidence: 100.0%