3-away/2-away cube action

[Timothy Chow]

Bonus question: What's the cube action for money?


XGID=aABBBBC----Ab---a-bbbcbB--:0:0:1:00:4:5:0:7:10

X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:4 O:5 7 pt.(s) match.
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| O O | | O O O O X |
| O | | O O O O X |
| | | O |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | O | |
| | | |
| | | X |
| O | | X X X X X |
| O X | | X X X X X X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 104 O: 114 X-O: 4-5/7
Cube: 1
X on roll, cube action

---
Tim Chow

[ah...Clem]

Any six is a market loser unless O hits from the bar. 5s are also
probably market losers other than 55. O can't recube, so might as well
ship it. But X still has work to do so probably a take. R/T

For money, the recube vig seems high enough that I'd hold. Might be a
beaver? I don't play with beavers, so my opinion on that is not worth much.

[Stick Rice]

Generally speaking, I think of the position for money first knowing both sides of the cube action and then I move on to what the score actually is is and what effect that score might have on the cube action. It's much easier that way.

Stick

[Timothy Chow]

XGID=aABBBBC----Ab---a-bbbcbB--:0:0:1:00:4:5:0:7:10

X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:4 O:5 7 pt.(s) match.
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| O O | | O O O O X |
| O | | O O O O X |
| | | O |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | O | |
| | | |
| | | X |
| O | | X X X X X |
| O X | | X X X X X X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 104 O: 114 X-O: 4-5/7
Cube: 1
X on roll, cube action

Ah_clem's assessment of this position was much better than mine.
For money, the XG rollout below says this is a beaver (though
only just). But at 3-away/2-away, XG says its a massive double
(though a trivial take).

The practical value of this position is debatable. Typically,
at 3-away/2-away, the 3-away player will have a double long before
reaching a position like this one. Indeed, in the actual game,
XG says I missed two doubles earlier on.

By the way, in the actual game, I was X, and I did not double.
I then rolled 44 and was glad I hadn't doubled. It was then
XG 3-ply's turn to miss a double!

Analyzed in Rollout
No double
Player Winning Chances: 51.29% (G:27.11% B:0.41%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 48.71% (G:9.52% B:0.72%)
Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 51.26% (G:27.06% B:0.59%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 48.74% (G:9.28% B:0.72%)

Cubeful Equities:
No double: +0.318 (-0.160)
Double/Take: +0.478
Double/Pass: +1.000 (+0.522)

Best Cube action: Double / Take

Rollout:
2592 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
First 3 moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+
Remaining moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Search interval: Large
Confidence No Double: ± 0.007 (+0.311..+0.324)
Confidence Double: ± 0.007 (+0.471..+0.485)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release, MET: Kazaross XG2

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Money
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XGID=aABBBBC----Ab---a-bbbcbB--:0:0:1:00:0:0:3:0:10

X:Player 1 O:Player 2

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game, Jacoby Beaver

+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| O O | | O O O O X |
| O | | O O O O X |
| | | O |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | O | |
| | | |
| | | X |
| O | | X X X X X |
| O X | | X X X X X X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+

Pip count X: 104 O: 114 X-O: 0-0

Cube: 1
X on roll, cube action

Analyzed in Rollout
No double
Player Winning Chances: 51.85% (G:26.60% B:0.26%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 48.15% (G:11.35% B:0.56%)
Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 51.83% (G:27.20% B:0.23%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 48.17% (G:11.97% B:0.59%)

Cubeful Equities:
No double: +0.030
Double/Beaver: -0.054 (-0.084)
Double/Pass: +1.000 (+0.970)

Best Cube action: No double / Beaver
Percentage of wrong pass needed to make the double decision right: 7.4%

Rollout:
2592 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Confidence No Double: ± 0.008 (+0.022..+0.038)
Confidence Double: ± 0.022 (-0.076..-0.032)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release

---
Tim Chow