3-away/2-away cube action 2

[Timothy Chow]

XGID=-a--bBC-CC--aB---d-e-bAA--:0:0:1:00:4:5:0:7:10

Score is X:4 O:5 7 pt.(s) match.
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O | | O O X X |
| X O | | O O |
| O | | O |
| O | | O |
| | | O |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| X X | | X |
| X X | | X X O |
| O X X | | X X O O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 150 O: 149 X-O: 4-5/7
Cube: 1
X on roll, cube action

---
Tim Chow

[ah....Clem]

35% is the leader's takepoint when there is the usual amount of gammons
to be had. O owns the four point, so that should prevent too many
gammons, but she also has a third checker back and if X can hit the blot
on the 12 the gammon rate should increase. So, I'll say it's about
normal and ask if O has 35% GWC here.


Looks like that and more. But the 15 rolls that hit the outfield blot
look like market losers so it's probably time to ship it.

D/T.

--
Ah....Clem
The future is fun, the future is fair.

[Timothy Chow]

The rollout says that this is a clear pass. Again, I was surprised
by this verdict. This time, I underestimated how often X wins this
game. After all, O has an advanced anchor and the pip count is even.
But O's structure is awful.

Analyzed in Rollout
No double
Player Winning Chances: 68.04% (G:13.97% B:0.81%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 31.96% (G:8.03% B:0.57%)
Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 68.54% (G:13.62% B:1.23%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 31.46% (G:8.02% B:0.76%)

Cubeful Equities:
No double: +0.902 (-0.098)
Double/Take: +1.066 (+0.066)
Double/Pass: +1.000

Best Cube action: Double / Pass

Rollout:
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Confidence No Double: ± 0.011 (+0.891..+0.913)
Confidence Double: ± 0.016 (+1.050..+1.081)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release, MET: Kazaross XG2

---
Tim Chow

[Stick Rice]

The pip count being even is fake news as 15 rolls hit that outfield checker and another three rolls make a solid five prime where the opponent has three men trapped behind it. That's half the rolls where the race no longer even matters.

Stick