# 3-away/7-away cube action

5 views

### Timothy Chow

May 28, 2023, 11:42:08 AMMay 28
to
XGID=-ABBBBBa-----Ba----cBb--h-:0:0:1:00:4:0:0:7:10

Score is X:4 O:0 7 pt.(s) match.
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O | | O X O O |
| X | | O X O O |
| | | O O |
| | | O |
| | | 8 |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | X X X X X |
| O | | X X X X X X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 107 O: 63 X-O: 4-0/7
Cube: 1
X on roll, cube action

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Tim Chow

### Timothy Chow

May 30, 2023, 8:23:42 AMMay 30
to
Stick's rule is not to double at 3-away/many-away in gammonish
positions. The exception that I have learned is that if the 3-away
player *loses* very few gammons, then it can still be a double if
it's close to pass. Here, X indeed loses very few gammons, but it's
not all that close to being a pass. Nevertheless, XG insists on
doubling. So, is this another class of exceptions? It's a rather
unusual position so I hesitate to draw a general conclusion.

Analyzed in Rollout
No double
Player Winning Chances: 74.31% (G:26.06% B:0.96%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 25.69% (G:2.66% B:0.01%)
Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 74.70% (G:25.23% B:1.44%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 25.30% (G:2.59% B:0.15%)

Cubeful Equities:
No double: +0.701 (-0.190)
Double/Take: +0.891
Double/Pass: +1.000 (+0.109)

Best Cube action: Double / Take

Rollout:
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Confidence No Double: ± 0.009 (+0.692..+0.710)
Confidence Double: ± 0.013 (+0.878..+0.905)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release, MET: Kazaross XG2

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Tim Chow