The horror! The horror!

[Tim Chow]

XGID=aDBbBBBAAA-a-------abbbca-:1:-1:1:63:0:0:1:0:10

X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Money session
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| | | O O O O O O | +---+
| | | O O O O | | 2 |
| | | O | +---+
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | O | |
| | | X |
| | | X |
| | | X X X O X X |
| O X X X | | X X X O X X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pipcount X: 62 O: 120 X-O: 0-0
Cube : 2, O own cube
X to play 63

---
Tim Chow

[badgolferman]

I'll play 8/2, 9/6.

[crf]

9/3, 7/1, duplicating the 5 O would use to cover.

[badgolferman]

crf wrote:

>9/3, 7/1, duplicating the 5 O would use to cover.

Illegal play!

[Walt]

Seems to me no matter what you play you leave a fly shot from the bar, a
1/18 chance.

9/6 8/2 leaves you even ended, so that's my play.

Is there something I'm not seeing?

//Walt

[Walt]

On 5/3/2013 4:32 AM, crf wrote:
> 9/3, 7/1, duplicating the 5 O would use to cover.
>

Assuming you meant 9/6 7/1, how is O going to hit AND cover after entering?

//Walt

[Bradley K. Sherman]

Tim Chow <tchow...@yahoo.com> wrote:
>Score is X:0 O:0. Money session
> +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
> | | | O O O O O O | +---+
> | | | O O O O | | 2 |
> | | | O | +---+
> | | | |
> | | | |
> | |BAR| |
> | | O | |
> | | | X |
> | | | X |
> | | | X X X O X X |
> | O X X X | | X X X O X X |
> +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+

> X:62 O:120, X to play 63

8/2,9/6

--bks

[peps...@gmail.com]

On Friday, May 3, 2013 1:01:50 PM UTC+1, Walt wrote:

>
> Is there something I'm not seeing?
>

Yes, statistically speaking, it is unlikely that you are seeing a rainbow at exactly this time.

Paul

[crf]

> Assuming you meant 9/6 7/1, how is O going to hit AND cover after entering?

Wow, I need to be more careful. yes, 9/6 7/1.

No, I didn't mean hit and cover, I just meant if I have to leave a shot, I should take away a good move elsewhere if I can so O has fewer good numbers.

[Tim Chow]

The subject line was intended as a hint. In positions like this, it
is good practice to check for horror rolls on your next turn. Typical
good candidates for horror rolls are (1) doublets and (2) rolls
involving the number of pips between your back checker and the
opponent's anchor.

So for example, after 9/6 8/2, 44 is a horror roll, leaving two blots
and failing to bear in all of X's checkers. After 9/6 7/1, no roll is
quite as bad as that, but 55 is still ugly since it forces X to rip up
his 6pt and again fails to bear in the back checker. After 8/2 7/4,
66 fails to complete the bear-in but isn't that bad; X's worst roll is
33, which rips up a point but at least completes the bear-in and
doesn't leave a blot.

Looking at horror rolls doesn't necessarily lead you directly to the
right play but my main point here is that it's something worth
checking that is often forgotten. In this position I think it is one
of the major reasons why the computer favors 8/2 7/4.

=======
Rollout
=======

1. Rollout: 8/2 7/4 eq:+1.044
Player : 84.21% (G:42.04% B:0.36%)
Opponent: 15.79% (G:0.17% B:0.01%)
Confidence: ±0.008 (+1.036<E<+1.052)

2. Rollout: 9/6 8/2 eq:+1.004 (-0.040)
Player : 83.23% (G:40.74% B:0.36%)
Opponent: 16.77% (G:0.52% B:0.02%)
Confidence: ±0.007 (+0.997<E<+1.011)

3. Rollout: 9/6 7/1 eq:+0.996 (-0.047)
Player : 83.15% (G:39.86% B:0.30%)
Opponent: 16.85% (G:0.26% B:0.01%)
Confidence: ±0.008 (+0.988<E<+1.004)

4. Rollout: 8/5 7/1 eq:+0.986 (-0.058)
Player : 82.82% (G:39.77% B:0.37%)
Opponent: 17.18% (G:0.15% B:0.00%)
Confidence: ±0.008 (+0.978<E<+0.994)

1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 2
Moves and cube decisions: 3 ply

eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.21

---
Tim Chow