Break anchor or dump?

[Timothy Chow]

XGID=--CAbBCBB-------b--bBbbcb-:1:-1:1:63:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| O | | O X O O O O | +---+
| O | | O X O O O O | | 2 |
| | | O | +---+
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | X X |
| X X | | X X O X |
| X X | | X X O X X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 107 O: 94 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, O own cube
X to play 63

---
Tim Chow

[Timothy Chow]

X is behind in the race with the weaker board, which often means he
should sit tight. But the alternative is the ugly dumping play of
8/5 8/2, and running isn't *that* dangerous since O has only 4's and
10's to hit, and if she doesn't hit then X may get a shot himself.

If we move O's dead checker on her 2pt to her 9pt, however, then XG
prefers the ugly dump.

1. Rollout¹ 20/14 6/3 eq:-0.194
Player: 49.62% (G:9.22% B:0.48%)
Opponent: 50.38% (G:13.20% B:0.14%)
Confidence: ±0.007 (-0.201..-0.188) - [100.0%]

2. Rollout¹ 20/17 20/14 eq:-0.289 (-0.095)
Player: 46.75% (G:6.22% B:0.20%)
Opponent: 53.25% (G:14.97% B:0.25%)
Confidence: ±0.005 (-0.294..-0.284) - [0.0%]

3. Rollout¹ 8/5 8/2 eq:-0.304 (-0.109)
Player: 45.10% (G:6.51% B:0.13%)
Opponent: 54.90% (G:8.41% B:0.23%)
Confidence: ±0.007 (-0.310..-0.297) - [0.0%]

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

-------
Variant
-------

XGID=--CAbBCBB-------c--bBbbbb-:1:-1:1:63:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| O | | O X O O O O | +---+
| O | | O X O O O O | | 2 |
| O | | | +---+
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | X X |
| X X | | X X O X |
| X X | | X X O X X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+

Pip count X: 107 O: 101 X-O: 0-0

Cube: 2, O own cube
X to play 63

1. Rollout¹ 8/5 8/2 eq:-0.319
Player: 44.77% (G:6.39% B:0.11%)
Opponent: 55.23% (G:8.10% B:0.26%)
Confidence: ±0.007 (-0.327..-0.312) - [99.9%]

2. Rollout¹ 20/17 20/14 eq:-0.335 (-0.016)
Player: 45.61% (G:6.95% B:0.18%)
Opponent: 54.39% (G:19.56% B:0.57%)
Confidence: ±0.006 (-0.341..-0.329) - [0.1%]

3. Rollout¹ 20/14 6/3 eq:-0.349 (-0.030)
Player: 46.04% (G:5.73% B:0.17%)
Opponent: 53.96% (G:16.53% B:0.27%)
Confidence: ±0.005 (-0.355..-0.344) - [0.0%]

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

---
Tim Chow