What a difference a blot makes! I played the pedestrian 11/3, but
XG insists on gaining some flexibility by breaking the back anchor.
Of course this would not be a viable play if O's board were stronger
(see variant 1), but it's also interesting to see what happens if
the roll is changed to 51 (see variant 2). Duplication of aces plays
less of a role than I thought, and timing considerations (spare pips)
are more important than I thought.
1. Rollout¹ 21/13 eq:-0.363
Player: 40.92% (G:8.58% B:0.22%)
Opponent: 59.08% (G:10.55% B:0.09%)
Confidence: ±0.010 (-0.374..-0.353) - [100.0%]
2. Rollout¹ 21/15 11/9 eq:-0.401 (-0.037)
Player: 39.68% (G:8.01% B:0.22%)
Opponent: 60.32% (G:12.48% B:0.11%)
Confidence: ±0.010 (-0.411..-0.390) - [0.0%]
3. Rollout¹ 11/3 eq:-0.477 (-0.113)
Player: 37.35% (G:7.31% B:0.19%)
Opponent: 62.65% (G:10.81% B:0.09%)
Confidence: ±0.010 (-0.487..-0.467) - [0.0%]
¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release
---------
Variant 1
---------
XGID=--BBBBB----Ab-c--B-bbBbbb-:0:0:1:62:0:0:0:0:10
X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| O X | | O O X O O O |
| O X | | O O X O O O |
| O | | |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | |
| O | | X X X X X |
| O X | | X X X X X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 127 O: 93 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 62
1. XG Roller++ 11/3 eq:-0.582
Player: 35.05% (G:6.21% B:0.15%)
Opponent: 64.95% (G:12.53% B:0.10%)
2. XG Roller++ 11/5 3/1 eq:-0.823 (-0.241)
Player: 30.24% (G:3.96% B:0.06%)
Opponent: 69.76% (G:15.87% B:0.39%)
3. XG Roller++ 11/5 4/2 eq:-0.843 (-0.261)
Player: 29.43% (G:3.69% B:0.08%)
Opponent: 70.57% (G:14.30% B:0.28%)
4. XG Roller++ 21/13 eq:-0.853 (-0.271)
Player: 34.06% (G:7.70% B:0.21%)
Opponent: 65.94% (G:27.16% B:0.26%)
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release
---------
Variant 2
---------
XGID=--BBBBB----Ab-c--B-bbBcab-:0:0:1:51:0:0:0:0:10
X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| O X | | O O X O O O |
| O X | | O O X O O |
| O | | O |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | |
| O | | X X X X X |
| O X | | X X X X X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 127 O: 94 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 51
1. Rollout¹ 21/15 eq:-0.407
Player: 40.02% (G:8.21% B:0.22%)
Opponent: 59.98% (G:13.28% B:0.11%)
Confidence: ±0.010 (-0.417..-0.396) - [82.3%]
2. Rollout¹ 21/16 11/10 eq:-0.413 (-0.007)
Player: 40.19% (G:9.53% B:0.29%)
Opponent: 59.81% (G:17.02% B:0.13%)
Confidence: ±0.010 (-0.423..-0.403) - [17.7%]
3. Rollout¹ 11/5 eq:-0.430 (-0.023)
Player: 38.75% (G:7.71% B:0.20%)
Opponent: 61.25% (G:10.77% B:0.09%)
Confidence: ±0.011 (-0.441..-0.419) - [0.0%]
¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release
---
Tim Chow