Can luck be "deserved"...?

muratk

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Apr 25, 2012, 6:03:36 AM4/25/12

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From the early days of discussions in this group, it has repeatedly
been proposed that the better players seem to get lucky because they
play in a way to make the most out of the next roll.

Well, this might at least be relatively true if we are talking about a
complete beginner who is making almost random moves, against a so-
called world-class player.

But how about the math phd's, book publishers, online forum operators,
bot developers, etc...?

Take a look at this position:

> +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
> | X | | O X O O O |
> | X | | O X O O O |
> | | | O O O |
> | | | O O |
> | | | |
> | |BAR| |
> | | | |
> | | | |
> | | | X |
> | O | | X X X X X |
> | O | | X X X X X |
> +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
> Pip count X: 103 O: 74 X-O: 0-0/3
> Cube: 4

Just by looking at this position, can you tell:

1 - If this is a match or a money play?

2 - Which one of the players is the absolute beginner and the so-
called world-class player?

3 - How many moves have been made thus far?

4 - Who owns the cube?

5 - Who is on roll?

6 - If the player who made the last move made the best play?

7 - If the player on roll now made the best play in hos last move?

8 - If the last move of either player was a forced move?

9 - How did the cube get to be at 4?

10 - Etc...?

Now, let's say that X is on roll and rolls a 55. Is that a lucky roll?
Is that a joker?

Alternatively, let's say that O is on roll and rolls a 55. Is that a
lucky roll? Is that a joker?

If one of the player's last move was a forced move or a total blunder,
would that mean that he got lucky beyond what he deserved?

If one player's last move required a complicated analysis and he
played it in a way "to make the most out of the next roll", would that
mean that he was less lucky and/or he deserved to be lucky?

In a related subject, I tried to discuss whether there is continuity
in a backgammon game but nobody seemed much interested either.

I can't decide whether most people in this group are too stupid to
discuss such aspects of the game or they are too busy discussing
individual positions at nauseam with their heads up in their asses...?

Is backgammon a forest or is it just a bunch of trees...??

MK

Tim Chow

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Apr 27, 2012, 10:34:51 PM4/27/12

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On Apr 25, 6:03 am, muratk <mu...@compuplus.net> wrote:
> Take a look at this position:
>
> > +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
> > | X | | O X O O O |
> > | X | | O X O O O |
> > | | | O O O |
> > | | | O O |
> > | | | |
> > | |BAR| |
> > | | | |
> > | | | |
> > | | | X |
> > | O | | X X X X X |
> > | O | | X X X X X |
> > +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
> > Pip count X: 103 O: 74 X-O: 0-0/3
> > Cube: 4
>
> Just by looking at this position, can you tell:
>
> 1 - If this is a match or a money play?

It's a match because it says "0-0/3".

The answers to your other 9 questions are all "no." The question of
who owns the cube and who is on roll are normally exported with the
position but it seems that you deleted them.

> Now, let's say that X is on roll and rolls a 55. Is that a lucky roll?
> Is that a joker?
>
> Alternatively, let's say that O is on roll and rolls a 55. Is that a
> lucky roll? Is that a joker?

[Other questions on luck deleted]

These questions depend on how you define "luck." There's no one true
way to define luck so you'll get different answers depending on what
definition you choose.

> I can't decide whether most people in this group are too stupid to
> discuss such aspects of the game or they are too busy discussing
> individual positions at nauseam with their heads up in their asses...?

I can't speak for others, but for me the answer is, "both".

---
Tim Chow

mu...@compuplus.net

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May 3, 2012, 5:41:58 AM5/3/12

to

On Friday, April 27, 2012 8:34:51 PM UTC-6, Tim Chow wrote:
> On Apr 25, 6:03 am, muratk <mu...@compuplus.net> wrote:
> > Take a look at this position:
> >
> > > +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
> > > | X | | O X O O O |
> > > | X | | O X O O O |
> > > | | | O O O |
> > > | | | O O |
> > > | | | |
> > > | |BAR| |
> > > | | | |
> > > | | | |
> > > | | | X |
> > > | O | | X X X X X |
> > > | O | | X X X X X |
> > > +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
> > > Pip count X: 103 O: 74 X-O: 0-0/3
> > > Cube: 4
> >
> > Just by looking at this position, can you tell:
> >
> > 1 - If this is a match or a money play?
>
> It's a match because it says "0-0/3".

Ooops... Forgot to delete that one while copying the position from another article.

> The answers to your other 9 questions are all "no." The question of
> who owns the cube and who is on roll are normally exported with the
> position but it seems that you deleted them.
>
> > Now, let's say that X is on roll and rolls a 55. Is that a lucky roll?
> > Is that a joker?
> >
> > Alternatively, let's say that O is on roll and rolls a 55. Is that a
> > lucky roll? Is that a joker?
> [Other questions on luck deleted]
>
> These questions depend on how you define "luck." There's no one true
> way to define luck so you'll get different answers depending on what
> definition you choose.

I don't have any intentions of redefining the word "luck" to mean anything other that what it means in the general language and as used in the backgammon circles, including the bots.

But perhaps my article made you uncomfortable enough with the reality that you wish I was talking about some other luck than the luck as you understand...?

> > I can't decide whether most people in this group are too stupid to
> > discuss such aspects of the game or they are too busy discussing
> > individual positions at nauseam with their heads up in their asses...?
>
> I can't speak for others, but for me the answer is, "both".

It figures... So, I am proposing that this thread be part of the "Teflon coated assholes archive" also.

MK