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Robert Zimmerman

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Mar 21, 2023, 12:02:25 PMMar 21
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XGID=abBa--BaC---aD---b-c-BBbb-:0:0:1:00:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O | | O X X O O |
| X O | | O X X O O |
| X | | O |
| X | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | O | |
| | | |
| X | | |
| X | | X X O |
| O X O | | X O X O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 178 O: 166 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X on roll, cube action


Timothy Chow

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Mar 21, 2023, 8:33:55 PMMar 21
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Despite O's buried checkers and all her blots, I would take this
as O. X still has a lot of work to do, and has two checkers of
his own on his 2pt that are somewhat misplaced. But I think that
a slightly favorable exchange will lose X's market, so D/T for me.

---
Tim Chow

Robert Zimmerman

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Mar 23, 2023, 10:17:49 AMMar 23
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This position was unusual enough that I found it disorienting. It took some time for me to see that this is a pretty strong double and that the take/pass side is the close decision. O's blots, her killed checkers waiting for a blitz that doesn't look promising, and likely losing battle for outfield control, are enough to entertain passing, IMO.

Bob

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O | | O X X O O |
| X O | | O X X O O |
| X | | O |
| X | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | O | |
| | | |
| X | | |
| X | | X X O |
| O X O | | X O X O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 178 O: 166 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X on roll, cube action

Analyzed in Rollout
No double
Player Winning Chances: 68.04% (G:32.08% B:4.12%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 31.96% (G:10.60% B:0.34%)
Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 67.88% (G:32.38% B:4.46%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 32.12% (G:10.71% B:0.36%)

Cubeless Equities: No Double=+0.613, Double=+1.231

Cubeful Equities:
No double: +0.825 (-0.152)
Double/Take: +0.977
Double/Pass: +1.000 (+0.023)

Best Cube action: Double / Take

Rollout:
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Confidence No Double: ± 0.018 (+0.807..+0.843)
Confidence Double: ± 0.027 (+0.950..+1.004)

Double Decision confidence: 100.0%
Take Decision confidence: 95.6%

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

peps...@gmail.com

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Mar 23, 2023, 10:40:46 AMMar 23
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It's better for the cuber than I would have thought.
I thought this was either a very easy take or even an ND/T.
In fact, passing is not such a bad play.

Paul
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