Pottle or not?

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Timothy Chow

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Sep 21, 2021, 10:19:30 PMSep 21
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XGID=-----bE-D-B-bC---c-ec---A-:0:0:1:51:0:0:0:0:10

X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O | | O O X |
| X O | | O O |
| X O | | O O |
| | | O |
| | | O |
| |BAR| |
| | | X |
| X | | X |
| X | | X |
| O X X | | X O |
| O X X | | X O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 145 O: 135 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 51

---
Tim Chow

Timothy Chow

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Sep 25, 2021, 7:49:29 PMSep 25
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Given that X is behind in the race, I didn't think that Pottling was
the right idea here. The trouble is that the alternative play 8/2
is so weak. Take a look at the variant for comparison.

1. Rollout¹ 24/18 eq:-0.414
Player: 40.99% (G:4.20% B:0.18%)
Opponent: 59.01% (G:16.61% B:0.26%)
Confidence: ±0.012 (-0.426..-0.402) - [100.0%]

2. Rollout¹ 8/2 eq:-0.527 (-0.113)
Player: 38.61% (G:5.65% B:0.22%)
Opponent: 61.39% (G:20.20% B:0.40%)
Confidence: ±0.013 (-0.539..-0.514) - [0.0%]

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release

-------
Variant
-------

XGID=--A--bE-C-B-bC---c-ec---A-:0:0:1:51:0:0:0:0:10

X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O | | O O X |
| X O | | O O |
| X O | | O O |
| | | O |
| | | O |
| |BAR| |
| | | X |
| | | X |
| X | | X |
| O X X | | X O |
| O X X | | X O X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 139 O: 135 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 51

1. Rollout¹ 6/1 2/1 eq:-0.371
Player: 41.92% (G:5.96% B:0.21%)
Opponent: 58.08% (G:16.79% B:0.29%)
Confidence: ±0.010 (-0.381..-0.360) - [90.4%]

2. Rollout¹ 24/18 eq:-0.381 (-0.011)
Player: 41.86% (G:4.45% B:0.19%)
Opponent: 58.14% (G:16.59% B:0.34%)
Confidence: ±0.012 (-0.393..-0.369) - [9.6%]

3. Rollout¹ 8/2 eq:-0.394 (-0.023)
Player: 41.46% (G:5.70% B:0.22%)
Opponent: 58.54% (G:17.05% B:0.35%)
Confidence: ±0.010 (-0.405..-0.384) - [0.0%]

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release

---
Tim Chow

MK

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Oct 18, 2021, 3:50:37 AM (yesterday) Oct 18
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