Blitz versus prime cube action

[Timothy Chow]

XGID=a--aBBDAA---aB-a-bbcbBb-A-:1:1:1:00:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O O O | | O O X O X |
| X O O | | O O X O |
| | | O |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | O | |
| | | X |
| | | X | +---+
| | | X X X | | 2 |
| O X X | | X X X O | +---+
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 149 O: 134 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, X own cube
X on roll, cube action

---
Tim Chow

[ah....Clem]

X is behind in the race, with position about even and an advantage in
threats. That usually implies ND/T.

Are there enough market losers to justify shipping it now? Fourteen POH
rolls, plus several that send a second checker to the roof, so I think so.

RD/T.

--
Ah....Clem
The future is fun, the future is fair.

[peps...@gmail.com]

I see this as a big pass with 6, 3, and 1 to hit. I don't think the opponent can withstand this blitz.
Clearly not TG.
RD/P.

Paul

[Timothy Chow]

Paul is right that X has so many hitting rolls that O has to pass.
In fact, the bot hits with *every single roll*. O's only defense
is her prime, but it's only a four-prime (or maybe a broken
five-prime, if you consider X's straggler).

If we move O's blot on her 10pt back a pip to her 11pt, however,
then the XG rollout below indicates that O has a close take.

Analyzed in Rollout
No redouble
Player Winning Chances: 69.57% (G:39.68% B:4.99%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 30.43% (G:8.74% B:0.75%)
Redouble/Take
Player Winning Chances: 69.72% (G:41.02% B:5.35%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 30.28% (G:8.95% B:0.88%)

Cubeful Equities:
No redouble: +0.934 (-0.066)
Redouble/Take: +1.277 (+0.277)
Redouble/Pass: +1.000

Best Cube action: Redouble / Pass

Rollout:
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Confidence No Double: ± 0.011 (+0.923..+0.944)
Confidence Double: ± 0.019 (+1.258..+1.296)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

-------
Variant
-------

XGID=a--aBBDAA---aBa--bbcbBb-A-:1:1:1:00:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O O O | | O O X O X |
| X O O | | O O X O |
| | | O |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | O | |
| | | X |
| | | X | +---+
| | | X X X | | 2 |
| O X X | | X X X O | +---+
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+

Pip count X: 149 O: 135 X-O: 0-0

Cube: 2, X own cube
X on roll, cube action

Analyzed in Rollout
No redouble
Player Winning Chances: 65.24% (G:34.68% B:4.06%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 34.76% (G:10.63% B:0.98%)
Redouble/Take
Player Winning Chances: 65.59% (G:36.55% B:4.57%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 34.41% (G:10.97% B:1.08%)

Cubeful Equities:
No redouble: +0.797 (-0.151)
Redouble/Take: +0.948
Redouble/Pass: +1.000 (+0.052)

Best Cube action: Redouble / Take

Rollout:
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Confidence No Double: ± 0.009 (+0.787..+0.806)
Confidence Double: ± 0.020 (+0.928..+0.967)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

---
Tim Chow