Early game 43 to play

[Timothy Chow]

XGID=-B--b-C-C--AeD-----db-b-B-:0:0:1:43:0:0:0:0:10

X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X | | O O O X |
| X | | O O O X |
| X | | O |
| X | | O |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| O | | |
| O | | |
| O X | | X |
| O X | | X O X |
| O X X | | X O X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 155 O: 147 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 43

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Tim Chow

[atila...@gmail.com]

23 Mayıs 2022 Pazartesi tarihinde saat 16:13:31 UTC+3 itibarıyla Tim Chow şunları yazdı:

24/21 is actually a very logical move. O has only 8 checkers in the zone. It's a good time to split the back checkers. The problem is the remaining 4. 24/17 is dangerous, since O can achieve two goals at the same time. He will both hit and have a new builder in the zone. So my preference is 13/6.

[Timothy Chow]

In the early game, if your opponent has an advanced anchor and you
are still stuck on the 24pt, then usually you should be looking to
split and form an advanced anchor of your own, because otherwise,
you're in danger of losing a priming battle. But there are exceptions,
such as if you're very far behind in the pip count and need to stay
back for more contact, or if the danger of getting attacked is too
great.

Here, X is not very far behind in the pip count, so the only
question is whether he has to worry about being attacked. Knowing
the above principles, the first thing I considered was splitting
24/21. But now it seems that none of the 4's is any good; 6/2
is awful, and the 13/9 and 11/7 volunteer more shots without
any duplication. Running with 24/17 does not help X make an
advanced anchor. So I played 13/6, but XG says that's a whopper.
Despite the many shots, the strategic value of splitting seems to
be paramount. Although O has the stronger board, she has only

8 checkers in the zone.

By the way, at first I thought that this might be a cube provocation
play, since XG 3-ply does not double after 13/6. However, when I
rolled it out with both D and ND, XG favored doubling after all three
plays below.

1. Rollout¹ 24/21 11/7 eq:-0.624
Player: 35.53% (G:8.39% B:0.23%)
Opponent: 64.47% (G:23.43% B:1.04%)
Confidence: ±0.017 (-0.641..-0.607) - [100.0%]

2. Rollout¹ 24/17 eq:-0.761 (-0.137)
Player: 34.44% (G:6.91% B:0.22%)
Opponent: 65.56% (G:26.71% B:0.90%)
Confidence: ±0.017 (-0.778..-0.744) - [0.0%]

3. Rollout¹ 13/6 eq:-0.763 (-0.139)
Player: 32.85% (G:7.84% B:0.22%)
Opponent: 67.15% (G:22.75% B:1.11%)
Confidence: ±0.017 (-0.780..-0.746) - [0.0%]

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Rolled for both No double and Double
Dice Seed: 271828
First 3 moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+
Remaining moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release

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Tim Chow