Two checkers to scramble home

[Timothy Chow]

XGID=-BBbB-BbB-C---A-ab-bbb-Ab-:1:-1:1:65:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O O | | O O O X O | +---+
| O | | O O O O | | 2 |
| | | | +---+
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| X | | |
| X X O | | X X O X X |
| X X O | | X X O X X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 109 O: 137 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, O own cube
X to play 65

---
Tim Chow

[ah....Clem]

With O's quasi backgame structure perhaps the pure play of slotting the
five is best, but I'm unconvinced.

I'll try 23/12 - escape the runner and leave the blot on the 14 as an
indirect. She'll have to break the forward anchor to hit, so it looks
playable.

--
Ah....Clem
The future is fun, the future is fair.

[Timothy Chow]

Like ah...clem, I played 23/12 here, and I am still startled at how
bad XG thinks my play is. It thinks the only play is 23/18 14/8.
I believe that this is a case where playing with one blot is much
better than playing with two blots. That is not always the case,
but here, if X plays 23/12, then O will be happy to break her 18pt
to hit---not only does it give her good chances of picking up the
second blot, but for timing reasons she wants to get some of those
back checkers going anyway. By contrast, 23/18 14/8 creates a
useful spare on the 8pt, and although O has plenty of ways to hit
the remaining blot, they're not very good. XG estimates most of
those hits to give O an equity in the +0.1 to +0.2 range. By
contrast, after 23/12, most of O's hitting rolls have an equity
in the +0.4 to +0.5 range (not to mention her super-joker rolls
of 55 and 52).

1. Rollout¹ 23/18 14/8 eq:+0.057
Player: 57.94% (G:14.32% B:0.35%)
Opponent: 42.06% (G:8.45% B:0.15%)
Confidence: ±0.007 (+0.049..+0.064) - [100.0%]

2. Rollout¹ 23/18 10/4 eq:-0.178 (-0.235)
Player: 51.17% (G:14.50% B:0.43%)
Opponent: 48.83% (G:16.02% B:0.44%)
Confidence: ±0.007 (-0.185..-0.171) - [0.0%]

3. Rollout¹ 23/12 eq:-0.231 (-0.288)
Player: 50.83% (G:11.69% B:0.32%)
Opponent: 49.17% (G:16.73% B:0.36%)
Confidence: ±0.007 (-0.238..-0.225) - [0.0%]

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

-------
Variant
-------

XGID=-BBbB-BbB-C---Aaab-cbb-A--:1:-1:1:65:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+

| X O O O | | O O O X | +---+
| O | | O O O | | 2 |
| | | O | +---+

| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| X | | |
| X X O | | X X O X X |
| X X O | | X X O X X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+

Pip count X: 109 O: 151 X-O: 0-0

Cube: 2, O own cube
X to play 65

1. Rollout¹ 23/12 eq:-0.179
Player: 49.50% (G:14.52% B:0.48%)
Opponent: 50.50% (G:12.00% B:0.43%)
Confidence: ±0.007 (-0.187..-0.172) - [97.9%]

2. Rollout¹ 23/18 14/8 eq:-0.190 (-0.011)
Player: 48.03% (G:16.86% B:0.54%)
Opponent: 51.97% (G:10.32% B:0.34%)
Confidence: ±0.007 (-0.197..-0.183) - [2.1%]

¹ 2592 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

---
Tim Chow

[Stick Rice]

I don't remember the exact problem since I've went through so many the past few days but I believe I commented on one of your posts noting that when the opponent has a strong board (it was a 4 point board like this one I think) it is so much worse to have two blots floating around rather than one. Again, one blot can survive being hit and eventually coming in with something good that maybe hops or if it hits we don't still have another man to pull off the bar. If we have two floating around ... the definition of bleak. The difference in number of shots between the best play and running all the way with my quick count is ... zero.

Stick