Just another early blitz cube

[Timothy Chow]

XGID=b-a-BAC-BA--fD---c-c-A--A-:0:0:1:00:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O | | O X X |
| X O | | O |
| X O | | O |
| X | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| 6 | O | |
| O | O | |
| O | | X |
| O X | | X X |
| O X X | | X X X O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 153 O: 193 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X on roll, cube action

---
Tim Chow

[Timothy Chow]

Nine checkers in the zone and a two-point board often indicate a weak
blitz, but X has a massive lead in the pip count and O has no structure.
This is a huge pass. Unfortunately for me, this is one of those
positions where I didn't think too long before cashing. I've given a
variant below which XG thinks is on the borderline between D and TG.

Analyzed in Rollout
No double
Player Winning Chances: 72.85% (G:42.92% B:2.78%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 27.15% (G:4.29% B:0.17%)
Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 73.20% (G:43.14% B:2.88%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 26.80% (G:4.31% B:0.20%)

Cubeful Equities:
No double: +1.076
Double/Take: +1.531 (+0.455)
Double/Pass: +1.000 (-0.076)

Best Cube action: Too good to double / Pass
Percentage of wrong take needed to make the double decision right: 14.3%

Rollout:
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Confidence No Double: ± 0.011 (+1.065..+1.087)
Confidence Double: ± 0.023 (+1.508..+1.555)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

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Variant
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XGID=b-a-BAC-BA--dDb--c-c-A--A-:0:0:1:00:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+

| X O O | | O X X |
| X O O | | O |

| X O | | O |
| X | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |

| | O | |
| O | O | |
| O | | X |
| O X | | X X |
| O X X | | X X X O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+

Pip count X: 153 O: 189 X-O: 0-0

Cube: 1
X on roll, cube action

Analyzed in Rollout
No double
Player Winning Chances: 70.35% (G:39.37% B:2.61%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 29.65% (G:5.07% B:0.25%)
Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 70.41% (G:40.50% B:2.73%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 29.59% (G:5.27% B:0.27%)

Cubeful Equities:
No double: +1.001
Double/Take: +1.325 (+0.324)
Double/Pass: +1.000 (-0.001)

Best Cube action: Too good to double / Pass
Percentage of wrong take needed to make the double decision right: 0.4%

Rollout:
2592 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Confidence No Double: ± 0.009 (+0.992..+1.011)
Confidence Double: ± 0.017 (+1.309..+1.342)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

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Tim Chow