5-away/4-away recube action

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Timothy Chow

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Sep 5, 2021, 8:24:10 AMSep 5
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XGID=aECBC--------------eb-d-c-:1:1:1:00:2:3:0:7:10

X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:2 O:3 7 pt.(s) match.
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| | | O O O O |
| | | O O O O |
| | | O O O |
| | | O O |
| | | O |
| |BAR| |
| | O | X |
| | | X |
| | | X X X | +---+
| | | X X X X | | 2 |
| | | X X X X | +---+
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 29 O: 80 X-O: 2-3/7
Cube: 2, X own cube
X on roll, cube action

---
Tim Chow

Timothy Chow

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Sep 7, 2021, 11:02:41 PMSep 7
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With QF, one can figure this one out pretty easily. It is obviously
a gargantuan pass, so the only interesting question is whether it is TG.
If it were TG for money then I would probably have posted the problem
for money, since I don't post score-based problems very often. So the
answer must be that it's TG at 5-away/4-away but not TG for money.

That is indeed what the rollouts below indicate, but in practice I don't
think that I would play on even ATS. It's too hard to calculate
anything precisely OTB, and I'd rather nail down the 2 points for sure
rather than chase after less than 5% gammons while risking blotting and
getting hit.

Analyzed in Rollout
No redouble
Player Winning Chances: 94.61% (G:4.66% B:0.04%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 5.39% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Redouble/Take
Player Winning Chances: 95.26% (G:4.38% B:0.03%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 4.74% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)

Cubeful Equities:
No redouble: +1.043
Redouble/Take: +2.348 (+1.305)
Redouble/Pass: +1.000 (-0.043)

Best Cube action: Too good to redouble / Pass
Percentage of wrong take needed to make the double decision right: 3.2%

Rollout:
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Confidence No Double: ± 0.003 (+1.040..+1.046)
Confidence Double: ± 0.004 (+2.344..+2.351)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release, MET: Kazaross XG2

-----
Money
-----

XGID=aECBC--------------eb-d-c-:1:1:1:00:0:0:0:0:10

X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| | | O O O O |
| | | O O O O |
| | | O O O |
| | | O O |
| | | O |
| |BAR| |
| | O | X |
| | | X |
| | | X X X | +---+
| | | X X X X | | 2 |
| | | X X X X | +---+
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 29 O: 80 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, X own cube
X on roll, cube action

Analyzed in Rollout
No redouble
Player Winning Chances: 95.14% (G:4.48% B:0.04%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 4.86% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Redouble/Take
Player Winning Chances: 95.27% (G:4.33% B:0.03%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 4.73% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)

Cubeful Equities:
No redouble: +0.982 (-0.018)
Redouble/Take: +1.857 (+0.857)
Redouble/Pass: +1.000

Best Cube action: Redouble / Pass

Rollout:
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Confidence No Double: ± 0.004 (+0.978..+0.986)
Confidence Double: ± 0.006 (+1.851..+1.863)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release

---
Tim Chow
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