I have noticed that I have a definite tendency to favor hitting over
covering in these sorts of decisions, compared to XG. Here it seems
that I'm leaving more or less a double shot either way, so why not
gain a tempo by hitting? But locking down X's 4pt is a long-term
asset, and O's attack is not all that strong when we have an equally
strong board. For comparison, see the variant, where O has three
builders ready to attack our blot if we don't hit.
1. Rollout¹ Bar/22 9/4 eq:-0.330
Player: 41.60% (G:16.17% B:1.18%)
Opponent: 58.40% (G:20.47% B:1.79%)
Confidence: ±0.016 (-0.345..-0.314) - [100.0%]
2. Rollout¹ Bar/17* eq:-0.441 (-0.112)
Player: 41.19% (G:13.23% B:0.67%)
Opponent: 58.81% (G:23.87% B:2.34%)
Confidence: ±0.017 (-0.458..-0.425) - [0.0%]
¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release
-------
Variant
-------
XGID=---aABDa-C--dB---a-ccb--BA:0:0:1:53:0:0:0:0:10
X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O | | O O O X |
| X | | O O O X |
| | | O O |
| | | |
| | X | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| O | | X |
| O X | | X |
| O X | | X X |
| O X O | | X X X O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 164 O: 141 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 53
1. Rollout¹ Bar/22 9/4 eq:-0.431
Player: 39.65% (G:14.79% B:0.88%)
Opponent: 60.35% (G:21.81% B:1.97%)
Confidence: ±0.011 (-0.443..-0.420) - [98.2%]
2. Rollout¹ Bar/17* eq:-0.450 (-0.019)
Player: 41.07% (G:13.35% B:0.69%)
Opponent: 58.93% (G:24.74% B:2.55%)
Confidence: ±0.014 (-0.464..-0.437) - [1.8%]
¹ 2592 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release
---
Tim Chow