Google Groups no longer supports new Usenet posts or subscriptions. Historical content remains viewable.
Dismiss

Hit or cover?

10 views
Skip to first unread message

Timothy Chow

unread,
Sep 22, 2021, 11:00:20 PM9/22/21
to
XGID=---aABDa-C--dB---a-dbb--BA:0:0:1:53:0:0:0:0:10

X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O | | O O O X |
| X | | O O O X |
| | | O |
| | | O |
| | X | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| O | | X |
| O X | | X |
| O X | | X X |
| O X O | | X X X O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 164 O: 142 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 53

---
Tim Chow

badgolferman

unread,
Sep 23, 2021, 2:33:11 PM9/23/21
to
If you don't hit O will hit again.

Bar/22/17*

Timothy Chow

unread,
Sep 26, 2021, 11:04:21 PM9/26/21
to
I have noticed that I have a definite tendency to favor hitting over
covering in these sorts of decisions, compared to XG. Here it seems
that I'm leaving more or less a double shot either way, so why not
gain a tempo by hitting? But locking down X's 4pt is a long-term
asset, and O's attack is not all that strong when we have an equally
strong board. For comparison, see the variant, where O has three
builders ready to attack our blot if we don't hit.

1. Rollout¹ Bar/22 9/4 eq:-0.330
Player: 41.60% (G:16.17% B:1.18%)
Opponent: 58.40% (G:20.47% B:1.79%)
Confidence: ±0.016 (-0.345..-0.314) - [100.0%]

2. Rollout¹ Bar/17* eq:-0.441 (-0.112)
Player: 41.19% (G:13.23% B:0.67%)
Opponent: 58.81% (G:23.87% B:2.34%)
Confidence: ±0.017 (-0.458..-0.425) - [0.0%]

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release

-------
Variant
-------

XGID=---aABDa-C--dB---a-ccb--BA:0:0:1:53:0:0:0:0:10

X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O | | O O O X |
| X | | O O O X |
| | | O O |
| | | |
| | X | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| O | | X |
| O X | | X |
| O X | | X X |
| O X O | | X X X O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 164 O: 141 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 53

1. Rollout¹ Bar/22 9/4 eq:-0.431
Player: 39.65% (G:14.79% B:0.88%)
Opponent: 60.35% (G:21.81% B:1.97%)
Confidence: ±0.011 (-0.443..-0.420) - [98.2%]

2. Rollout¹ Bar/17* eq:-0.450 (-0.019)
Player: 41.07% (G:13.35% B:0.69%)
Opponent: 58.93% (G:24.74% B:2.55%)
Confidence: ±0.014 (-0.464..-0.437) - [1.8%]

¹ 2592 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release

---
Tim Chow

MK

unread,
Oct 18, 2021, 3:51:00 AM10/18/21
to
Cover
0 new messages