Magriel's criteria mostly point toward a safe play. The only play
that leaves no shots is 11/1, which isn't pretty, but doesn't look
terrible at first glance. The trouble is that X's position remains
inflexible, and he is highly likely to leave more shots soon, when
O's board is likely to be stronger than it is now. XG favors the
bold double-slotting 11/5 8/4!
1. Rollout¹ 11/5 8/4 eq:+0.080
Player: 58.20% (G:16.44% B:0.51%)
Opponent: 41.80% (G:8.73% B:0.31%)
Confidence: ±0.010 (+0.069..+0.090) - [100.0%]
2. Rollout¹ 13/9 11/5 eq:-0.005 (-0.084)
Player: 55.08% (G:17.32% B:0.49%)
Opponent: 44.92% (G:10.17% B:0.37%)
Confidence: ±0.011 (-0.015..+0.006) - [0.0%]
3. Rollout¹ 11/1 eq:-0.059 (-0.139)
Player: 53.64% (G:13.54% B:0.28%)
Opponent: 46.36% (G:10.07% B:0.37%)
Confidence: ±0.011 (-0.070..-0.049) - [0.0%]
4. Rollout¹ 11/5 6/2 eq:-0.074 (-0.153)
Player: 53.39% (G:14.37% B:0.38%)
Opponent: 46.61% (G:10.60% B:0.39%)
Confidence: ±0.012 (-0.086..-0.061) - [0.0%]
5. Rollout¹ 8/4 8/2 eq:-0.093 (-0.173)
Player: 52.27% (G:15.92% B:0.43%)
Opponent: 47.73% (G:11.39% B:0.46%)
Confidence: ±0.011 (-0.104..-0.082) - [0.0%]
¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release
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Tim Chow