The Truth about Wagerline.com and MLB consensus picks...
FAnderson
... or at least some factual data.
*** Disclaimer, I do not have a degree in statistics, and I worked on
this project alone with no one checking my results.***
Between 04/05/2006 and 9/04/2006
Games rated: 2005 (I think there were 2163 games played, but I am
missing some data and do not have time to back fill right now)
Win - Loss - No Action(50/50 split)
========================================================
All: 1083-922-0 (%54.01)
Top 10 Percent: 1065-928-12 (%53.43)
Expert (top 10 per team): 990-864-151 (%53.39)
========================================================
Money Totals based on 1 unit = $100.
Example:
+150 winner = $150.00
+150 loser = -$100.00
-150 winner = $66.70
-150 loser - -$150.00
========================================================
All: -$15,451.00
Top 10 percent: $1,650.00
Expert (top 10 per team): $31,975.00
========================================================
The same Report run where there is only Action if the consensus is above 60%
===================================================================
All: 707-543-755(%56.56) -$25,289.00
Top 10 percent: 639-519-847(%55.18) -$17,437.00
Expert (top 10 per team): 682-574-749(%54.29) $10,310.00
===================================================================
The same Report run where there is only Action if the consensus is above 70%
===================================================================
All: 299-174-1532(%63.21) -$10,597.00
Top 10 percent: 284-173-1548(%62.14) -$9,578.00
Expert (top 10 per team): 383-314-1308(%52.90) -$1,400.00
===================================================================
I was going to apply some sort of star weighted system based on
consensus percentage.
50-60 = 1 Star
61-70 = 2 Stars
71-80 = 3 Stars
81-90 = 4 Stars
91-100= 5 Stars
But after looking at the over 70 being a negative number on it's own.. I
can only image it would get worse.
So.. I thought I would look at only 50-60 percent consensus and here is
what I found.
===================================================================
All: 376-379-1250(%49.80) $9,838.00
Top 10 percent: 426-409-1170(%51.01) $19,087.00
Expert (top 10 per team): 308-290-1407(%51.50) $21,665.00
===================================================================
And the Same thing again with action on consensus between 60-70 percent.
===================================================================
All: 408-369-1228(%52.50) -$14,692.00
Top 10 percent: 355-346-1304(%50.64) -$7,859.00
Expert (top 10 per team): 299-260-1446(%53.48) $11,710.00
===================================================================
What does all of this tell us...
Well, and this is where Vegas gets all of it's money, the consensus more
often than not plays the heavy favorites with bad odds. When they win,
they win small, when they lose, they lose big. That would explain why
the 50-60 percentile of "Consensus All" had a losing record but managed
to show a profit of almost 10k. And the Over 60-100 percentile, lost 25k
and had a %56.56 winning record.
If I had more time I could continue to crunch numbers.. I have data like
total users per side, which could be used to weed out some of the
peripheral wagers. An example would be if 2 of a possible 20 Experts bet
one side of a game.. it would not be a good representation of consensus.
I am interested in what the group has to say about this.
Thanks, FA
WhiteFalcon
notice that if you lost a favorite, you were charged with the full risk
to win a unit., and if you won you were only creadited with a single
unit risk.
I will fix those numbers and repost the data.
WhiteFalcon
Money Totals based on 1 unit = $100.
Example:
+150 winner = $150.00
+150 loser = -$100.00
-150 winner = $66.70
-150 loser - -$150.00
========================================================
All: $13,448.00
Top 10 percent: $28,629.00
Expert (top 10 per team): $53,884.00
========================================================
The same Report run where there is only Action if the consensus is
above 60%
===================================================================
All: 707-543-755(%56.56) -$2,128.00
Top 10 percent: 639-519-847(%55.18) $2,840.00
Expert (top 10 per team): 682-574-749(%54.29) $27,064.00
===================================================================
The same Report run where there is only Action if the consensus is
above 70%
===================================================================
All: 299-174-1532(%63.21) $1,357.00
Top 10 percent: 284-173-1548(%62.14) $1,426.00
Expert (top 10 per team): 383-314-1308(%54.94) $9,342.00
===================================================================
So.. I thought I would look at only 50-60 percent consensus and here
is
what I found.
===================================================================
All: 376-379-1250(%49.80) $15,576.00
Top 10 percent: 426-409-1170(%51.01) $25,789.00
Expert (top 10 per team): 308-290-1407(%51.50) $26,820.00
===================================================================
And the Same thing again with action on consensus between 60-70
percent.
===================================================================
All: 408-369-1228(%52.50) -$3,485.00
Top 10 percent: 355-346-1304(%50.64) $1,414.00
Expert (top 10 per team): 299-260-1446(%53.48) $17,722.00
===================================================================
So, you ask yourself, if all the wagers for Experts totals so much
more, why would I not go with that.
One reason you may not want to go that way is because you have to place
a lot more bets.. and it almost doubles your risk.
Expert Consensus (profit per wager $29.06)
Expert 50-60 (profit $48.85 per wager)
FA
WhiteFalcon
get your attention.. I am not sure what will...
If you start with a 10k bank roll. And at the start of everyday,
re-adjust your base unit to be 1% of your bank. ($10000 = $100 base
unit).
And place bets on only the Expert 50-60 consensus.
You will make an average of 6 bets a day.
You Bank roll as of September 4th, would be $136,397.84 with your base
unit being $1355.00
I ran the same formula on all expert picks, and the number was
$1,719,391.05, the only problem I see with trying to profit that much
in a single season is that you need to be able to lay roughly
$17,964.00 per game on as many as 16 games a day. I am not sure that
can be done.
Does this information interest any of you??
FA
HC
WhiteFalcon wrote:
> ok.. I am going to make one last post on this.. and if this does not
> get your attention.. I am not sure what will...
Call somebody's mother a whore.
That oughta do it.
;-)
Gary Collard
misleading because the line determines what an "even" consensus should be.
If the line is -105/-105 then 50-50 is break even, but if it is -155/+145
then 60-40 is break even, and numbers above or below that threshold are
similarly offset.
I'm not convinced that there isn't something in MLB consensus data, but
have just never done much work with it due to those pitfalls.
--
Gary Collard
SABR-L Moderator
gmco...@yahoo.com
http://sarcastipundit.blogspot.com/
"Arnold Schwarzenegger signed a law preventing California felons from
playing collegiate athletics. It was just in time. At the rate the
Texas Longhorns are getting arrested it won't be long before they are
measuring first downs with real chain gangs." -- Argus Hamilton
FAnderson
some of the money was there.. but I messed up some of the line
calculations...
If I can fix this and get better stats out I will.. otherwise.. please
disregard my post as a lunatic jag.
FA
obai...@work.coms
> Looking at baseball consensuses (or any moneyline consensus) can be
> misleading because the line determines what an "even" consensus should be.
> If the line is -105/-105 then 50-50 is break even, but if it is -155/+145
> then 60-40 is break even, and numbers above or below that threshold are
> similarly offset.
No, this is false.
It is NOT misleading to look at the "consensus"
numbers for a given line (at wagerline or other)
The consensus refers to the LARGEST percentage
of cappers taking a given SIDE of a wager:
it is IRRELEVENT what the line is in this
regard, since a -155 fav could in fact
have a "consensus" of 80% of cappers taking
THAT LINE...or maybe just 55% will take -155.
Either way it forms a "consensus" and does
not have to be 60-40 just because the line
is -155/+145.
It is generally believed that the "consensus"
is more often wrong than right in certain
sports (or types of bets within a sport)