NFL WEEK TWO
john harkness
NFL Week two, and here's hoping this is an improvement over my stunning
1-4.5 in Week One
Tampa Bay +5 vs. Detroit
How many defensive touchdowns were there this past weekend? Six? No
Seven, the fumble recovery during the Chi-GB game. So the real problem
in the NFL today is that the offenses don't know how to play defense.
As we all know, Lions have won and covered last 3 in series, all by
similar scores (37-10, 21-6, 27-0). Bucs "under" 11-3-2 LY. This is not
the same Bucs. TB played an exraordinarily gritty game versus SF -- held
them to two field goals in the first half. Detroit was outstatted in
almost every department by a supposedly inferior Atlanta, and got a
backdoor cover thanks to defensive touchdown .
Tennessee +6.5 @ Miami
We plainly underrated the Oilers, or we plainly overrated Da Raiders,
whatever. However, this week sees Tennessee go into Miami, who had their
hands full (and, let's be honest, got lucky with another of the week's
DTDs) with Indiana. Is it just me, or did that Dolphin team not look
like a Jimmy Johnson team?
You gotta love the Oilers on the road -- 13-3 vs. spread on road last 2
years, 10-2 as road dog. Oilers also big "over" team away lately ("over"
5-2-1 LY, 10-5-1 since ’95, 26-14-1 since ’92).
New England at Indiana +4.5???
Do we go with the software, or do we go with our gut on this one. All my
programmes run Indiana as a tight cover -- losing by a field goal. On
the other hand, was that explosive attack we saw against San Diego a
fluke or a promise of things to come. New England has a great record in
this series, but usually as a dog. Indiana is 8-1 as a home dog in
general.
I don't buy the letdown/lookahead theory. (Pats have the Jets next week
-- anybody like the over in that one?) The Pats were playing like a team
on a mission, and Indiana are divisional rivals. I do suspect this game
might go under, just on the grounds that Indiana plays tougher D than
San Diego. Hell, my mama plays better defense that San Diego, and she's
dead.
Baltimore +2 v. Cincinatti
Two teams coming off last quarter wins, though Cinci was expected to
beat the Cards and Baltimore pulled a remarkable upset. I like the
Baltimore Modells, and while Cinci wan a couple of tight ones in this
series last year, the Modells had won and covered seven straight prior
to that. Of course, the Baltimore Ravens may not have the same
motivation to beat Cincinatti as the Cleveland Browns used to. Also like
the over in this game. Might want to wait and see where the line goes.
Arizona +9.5
Dallas has won 13 straight in this series, but only covered seven of
last 10. Arizona is on a 6-2 run at home. Now, judging by the Pittsburgh
game, the 'Boys are definitely back. I have a theory about Arizona's
spread effectiveness at home. They are the only ones used to playing in
that heat and (lack of) humidity. You can't replace fluids fast enough
in that environment to be effective for a whole football game. Again, I
suspect the Dallas money will come in and I'd wait for the game to go to
10.5 or 11.
Oakland -5
Kansas City is on an 0-5 run as a road dog, 8-16-1 as a road dog the
last five years, and the chiefs are on an 0-3 run on Monday Night. Plus,
they looked completely horrible against Denver, who didn't play that
well the first half of the game either. On the other hand, I don't
really trust games that are set at -5
Totals plays:
Washington Pittsburgh Over 41
Tennessee-Miami Over 40
New England Indiana Under 43
Dallas-Arizona Over 40.5
Cincinatti Baltimore Over -- Judas Priest, is that 47.5? hmm, let me
think about that one.
john harkness
john harkness wrote:
Pinball wizards been kind enough to point out to me that Baltimore lost
the game, and thought, well, of course, then I went back and looked at
the initial draft and realized that three letters disappeared between
the first draft and the posting. ATS
I still like the pick though. I've got to get some sleep.
akindo...@prodigy.net
thanks for the week two trends, what do you think of my fav
next week, Pitt over Wash?
steelers- 10-1 ats off su home loss
18-3 ats home off home since 1986
24-5-1 ats home fav after scoring 17 or less
redskins 3-14 ats away off away since 1990
Billy
>Pittsburgh looked so bad it was frightening.
>Washington looked pretty good.
>I can't believe that Pittsburgh is as bad as they showed, but I have to
>wonder how long they plan to stay with Stewart as QB. I'm passing until
>I see another week of play. Could Cowher -- a coach I have a lot of
>respect for -- be losing control of the team?
>My software projects Washington, but I don't want to overreact to one
>game from each side.
>Pass.
Jump on Pit asap, the line has already jumped from 3 1/2 to 6 1/2
after learning Terry Allen is OUT with a broken thumb. My book did
not know of this, and I jumped in at 3 1/2..............
lant...@nospam.com
john harkness wrote:
> Tampa Bay +5 vs. Detroit
> ...This is not
> the same Bucs. TB played an exraordinarily gritty game versus SF -- held
> them to two field goals in the first half. Detroit was outstatted in
> almost every department by a supposedly inferior Atlanta, and got a
> backdoor cover thanks to defensive touchdown ...
>==========
Had to grin when I read the above...
Any parallels come to mind? :-)
Brian Anthony
john harkness
John Harkness writes:
add:
Pittsburgh -6
Nelson Patenaude
> Two teams coming off last quarter wins, though Cinci was expected to
> beat the Cards and Baltimore pulled a remarkable upset.
John, I thought that the Jaguars pulled out the win 28-27 at least that
was what I thought. I could be wrong however. All I know is the Ravens
covered.
-----------------------------------------------------------------
Nelson Patenaude "Maybe all I need besides my pills and surgery
Carleton University is a new metaphor for reality."
"We care a lot about the Garbage Pail Kids, they never lie
We care a lot about Transformers cause there's more than meets the eye."
Syracuse Orangemen 1996 Gator Bowl Champions
Email address: npat...@chat.carleton.ca
----------------------------------------------------------------------
lisarich
ATS stuff noted, what do we know of the fundamentals? Pgh's off season
defense coffers have NOT be filled; their offense a question mark.
Washington should vie for the NFC East title with Dallas - defense looks
good, they play a ball control offense.
I believe Washington's offense is system based - Allen's absence will
hurt but it isn't a death blow. Frerotte is just as capable as Aikman
in throwing the ball - if Washington has to.
You may believe Cowher will raise hell with the defense this week, but
no hell raising can replace all the players Pgh lost to free agency.
Hell raising doesn't have the same impact on an offense as it does on a
defense.
At 41 points, I'd look to the under, pass on the side.
lant...@nospam.com
Pitt over Wash looks good, but IMHO none of the above is the
clincher...the fact that Allen is OUT (or very hurt at best) is...
Good luck this weekend,
Brian :-)
sport x- no-archive :yes
terry allen (despite news reports) is not out of this game.he is being
fitted for a cast and will try to practice with it. he may not play, but
for this reason NEVER bet against a pro football team because of an
injury. mitchell and davis are adequate replacements .plus it now cost you
6 not 3 1/2 points. how many of the mentioned trends were with kordell
stewart as the qb? i played a little at 3 1/2 simply because washington win
was a mirage as they allowed 4.5 yards per rush vs panthers. buerlein just
gave them the game with the 4 turnovers and i knew the trends would drive
the game up for a middle. the allen thing just gives more space for the
oppurtunity. steelers missing their best off. lineman for 6 weeks is a
bigger concern than allen. washington will try to do what dallas did. play
the wide receivers one on one with dishman and green (2 best cover db's on
the same team this season) which allows them to put 8 guys in the box to
stop bettis and make kordell stewart prove he can beat an nfl defense.this
is what the cowboys did with deion and the other corner shutting down their
men one on one. this is also exactly what washington did vs buerlein,and
since steve cant throw the ball over 20 yards anymore it worked. remember
washington allowing 250 yards rushibg last game on turf (falcons exib) and
was shredded by panthers and can only imagine what happens when bettis gets
going. norv turner will make stewart prove he can make plays however
and this means i shoot for the middle on sunday instead of riding out the
steelers - 3 1/2.(which is probably the correct call with steelers havinga
bye next as they also lost the opener last year and led baltimore at home
something like 24-0 in the second quarter of the next game, also at home.
others wrote:
> >
> > steelers- 10-1 ats off su home loss
> > 18-3 ats home off home since 1986
> > 24-5-1 ats home fav after scoring 17 or less
> >
> > redskins 3-14 ats away off away since 199
>
lisarich
Another mirage is Carolina's season record from last year. If Bettis
gets 158 yards (as did Carolina last week), Stewart's good for the same
104 that Beurlein threw for. I can't play on Pitt this week, but if
Washington, who starts the year with two road games against division
champions from last year, can get up for and win this game, call me
impressed.
While we're throwing around more ATS crap: the dog in the Wash/Pgh
series is 4-1; Washington is 9-1 off a SU road win in September. I just
love that "figures don't lie but liars figure" phase - I must use ten
times a week at work, during my forecasts.
I have Denver -5 1/2; under 43 New England so far.
lisarich
Nelson Patenaude wrote:
> cant blame you considering we have no run defense the Terry Allen the TD
> Maker is out. I dont think Gus can actually win a game on his own do you!
> I would make the same bet but I have never bet against my team and never will.
> Except for the BlueJays because they deserve it when they let crap like
> Luis Andujar take the mound!! Okay vent finished Good Luck John.
>
> -----------------------------------------------------------------
> Nelson Patenaude "Maybe all I need besides my pills and surgery
> Carleton University is a new metaphor for reality."
>
> "We care a lot about the Garbage Pail Kids, they never lie
> We care a lot about Transformers cause there's more than meets the eye."
>
> Syracuse Orangemen 1996 Gator Bowl Champions
>
> Email address: npat...@chat.carleton.ca
> ----------------------------------------------------------------------
Don't underestimate Gus because the team philosphy isn't passing
oriented. Don't have the numbers in front of me, but Gus was in the top
five QB's (efficiency ratings). Against the AFC last year Wash scored
31,31, 27 (in three wins, including one at New England), 13 in their
loss to Pgh.
I still won't start him (fantasy league talk here) -but I'm not crazy
about Mitchell against TB.
sport x- no-archive :yes
if gibbs and theismann show up for washington and noll and bradshaw show up
for pittsburgh i will consider the worthless trends that you mention.
lisarich <lisa...@concentric.net> wrote in article
<340F6A...@concentric.net>...
TheHCapper
>to all 3 of you guys and everyone else! Dosen't "hehehe" sound more
>lady-like than "hahaha">? HAHAHA>>>>>>>>just kiddin
>
>
actually newwave i think you're refering to the very lady-like heeheehee
which is not to be confused with the "Letterman" and "Louie DePalma" hehehe
just making my contribution! hehehe
HC
Nelson Patenaude
lisarich (lisa...@concentric.net) wrote:
> Don't underestimate Gus because the team philosphy isn't passing
> oriented. Don't have the numbers in front of me, but Gus was in the top
> five QB's (efficiency ratings). Against the AFC last year Wash scored
> 31,31, 27 (in three wins, including one at New England), 13 in their
> loss to Pgh.
Well, I find it unfathomable how this man cant win any games when needed
with his passing. Im not ragging on him just stating that with the
offensive talent he has in front of him he should have much better stats
then he does. Hes got Ellard, Westbrook, Harper and Leslie Sheppard at
wide out and a quality receiving tight end in Jamie Asher. Then there is
the constant threat of the run. Well, Pittsburgh will be his chance to
shine but I still hope that Stephen Davis gets at least 25 carries to show
that he is the real deal.
> I still won't start him (fantasy league talk here) -but I'm not crazy
> about Mitchell against TB.
Mitchell is awful!!
Greg Olmen
Also take this into consideration. The Skins have had very few
games inthe last two years where they have been beaten by more
than a touchdown. Thier offense is fairly strong and should
keep them close against just about everyone. If the line stays
at 6 1/2 or moves to 7 take the Skins against a one dimentional
Pittsburgh offense. The Steelers might win, but it won't be easy.
And take a look at the spread. It opened at Pitt -3, which means
that the odds makers consider these two teams exactly even, but
gave the three points for Pitt due to home field. No without
Allen the line has moved to 6 or 7, is Allen really worth a full
touchdown. Steve Young is out in the 49ers game and the line
only moved 3 points.
If you want the right side take Washington
If you want a sure winner bet the under.(with or without Allen)
Greg
MikeBatlaw
disagree totally
pitt is as close to a lock ats as it gets when they are a favorite at home
under cowler, approx 75% ats
allen missing is a huge factor, ferrot does not impress
kordell looking for big time redemption as are all the steelers
after last weeks blowout to the hated pokes
wash very road weary with 6 road games in a row
pitt will play very inspired ball and cover easy
pitt offense able to throw so many more looks at the wash defense than
beurline and co. did last week
i could be wrong (i thought the seahawks were an easy cover last week !!!)
best of luck to all
Mike B
john harkness
John Harkness writes":
Greg Olmen wrote:
SNIP SOME STUFF
> And take a look at the spread. It opened at Pitt -3, which means
> that the odds makers consider these two teams exactly even, but
> gave the three points for Pitt due to home field. No without
> Allen the line has moved to 6 or 7, is Allen really worth a full
> touchdown. Steve Young is out in the 49ers game and the line
> only moved 3 points.
>
> If you want the right side take Washington
> If you want a sure winner bet the under.(with or without Allen)
>
> Greg
No, Allen is worth three, if the game opened at 3 and moved to 6. Me,
I'm hoping it goes 7.5, definite buyback around 7.
Adam Levar
Greg Olmen <gol...@ix.netcom.com> wrote:
>
>And take a look at the spread. It opened at Pitt -3, which means
>that the odds makers consider these two teams exactly even, but
>gave the three points for Pitt due to home field. No without
>Allen the line has moved to 6 or 7, is Allen really worth a full
>touchdown. Steve Young is out in the 49ers game and the line
>only moved 3 points.
The only thing I can add here Greg, is that Terry Allen basically is
the entire Washington offence. Without him, Washington is in trouble,
but I am not entirely convince that he will not play Sunday.
Adam
Billy
afl...@netrover.com (Adam Levar) wrote:
>Greg Olmen <gol...@ix.netcom.com> wrote:
>>
>>And take a look at the spread. It opened at Pitt -3, which means
>>that the odds makers consider these two teams exactly even, but
>>gave the three points for Pitt due to home field. No without
>>Allen the line has moved to 6 or 7, is Allen really worth a full
>>touchdown. Steve Young is out in the 49ers game and the line
>>only moved 3 points.
If PIT was favored by 3, then the line moved to 6 when we found out
Allen was out, that means it moved by 3....where the hell did you come
up that he is worth a TD??
Nelson Patenaude
Adam Levar (afl...@netrover.com) wrote:
> The only thing I can add here Greg, is that Terry Allen basically is
> the entire Washington offence. Without him, Washington is in trouble,
> but I am not entirely convince that he will not play Sunday.
Everyone is sleeping on Stephen Davis anyone who remembers him from
Auburn knows that he is the real deal. As a pro i have seen him a bit
last year mostly against Dallas and in the Carolina game. He seems to be
the real deal. Dont be surprised if the Skins pull this one out or at
least cover the 6. Im not betting this game and definitely passing though.
And does Kordell Stewart really have any business laying 6 points against
a very good Skins team.
johnny_vegas
In article <3410F9...@netcom.ca>, john says...
>
>John Harkness writes":
>
>Greg Olmen wrote:
>
>SNIP SOME STUFF
>
>> And take a look at the spread. It opened at Pitt -3, which means
>> that the odds makers consider these two teams exactly even, but
>> gave the three points for Pitt due to home field. No without
>> Allen the line has moved to 6 or 7, is Allen really worth a full
>> touchdown. Steve Young is out in the 49ers game and the line
>> only moved 3 points.
>>
>> If you want the right side take Washington
>> If you want a sure winner bet the under.(with or without Allen)
>>
>> Greg
>
>No, Allen is worth three, if the game opened at 3 and moved to 6. Me,
>I'm hoping it goes 7.5, definite buyback around 7.
_______________________________________________________________________
VEGAS WRITES:
Boy John, you really nailed this one. Bet with the
wise money and you will continue to get your ass
kicked. Keep up the good work!
>
>j...@netcom.ca