Sgt Rock- Can You Hear Me Now? 2/3
Sgt Rock
How's that for a redundant heading? Basic. Fundamental. If you're an
experienced player with more than half-a-clue, you should skip this
section. It discusses ideas so elementary, so simple and obvious, that
any player ignorant of them is, well, no player at all. I probably
shouldn't waste my time or yours writing about it, except for this:
Every time I sit into a Hold 'Em game, I see players who either don't
understand this stuff, or else, for whatever reason, choose to ignore
it. It's remarkable.
Wait. Even if you were born knowing everything, maybe you should keep
reading anyway. Maybe you're already aware of these things at some
level, but it might help you to have them articulated, perhaps expressed
in a different way than you had thought about them. Or had you
consciously thought about these things?
Cost, Chance & Payback. These are the three criteria for any gambling
decision. How much will it Cost you? What's the Chance you'll win? How
much is the Payback? Doesn't matter what level of sophistication your
game reaches; if you can quantify those three factors and crunch the
numbers, your expected value is either plus, minus, or neutral. Period.
Most times it's pretty easy to quantify Cost and Payback. Chance is a
no-brainer too, if you hold the nuts, but more often you'll hold a
lesser hand, and understanding or estimating your Chance can become
exceptionally complex, even when Chance is the key to a difficult decision.
When the game reaches those higher levels of sophistication where
psychological abilities seem more important than mathematics, Cost,
Chance & Payback STILL RULE as the criteria for all decisions! Really!
It's just that the psychology is used to assess that Chance, or maybe
even to manipulate it. When a pro tries to steal the pot with a River
Bluff Raise, it's because she used ALL her skills to decide that her
Chance for success, considered with Cost and Payback, justify the play.
Maybe she even made some move, or did something to set the stage an hour
earlier, or has some reliable read on an opponent, to enhance her Chance.
We got away from Basic and Fundamental just to point out how the Cost,
Chance and Payback principles will still apply in *any* game. Now for a
basic and overly simple example:
You join the game, post behind the button, and are dealt Td 2d. One
limper, you check, SB folds, BB checks.
Board comes: Qd 6h 4c, 7d
The flop is checked to you, and you consider trying a steal, but both
your opponents appear eager to see you bet, so you pass.
On the turn the BB checks, and the limper bets out. You got a free card
on the flop, and have turned a flush draw. Of course you counted the 3.5
small bets that went into the pot preflop, plus 2 more just bet. You're
thinking about how, not yet considering future action on the hand,
trying to win 5.5 bets will cost you 2 bets, so your immediate pot odds
are 5.5-to-2 or 2.75-to-1.
If it happened that both your opponents were all-in at this point, there
could be no further action, and you should have a pretty easy decision,
after thinking about how:
--- You've seen 6 cards, and 9 of the remaining 46 will make your flush.
Put differently, it's 4.11-to-1 against, or a 19.56% chance. You've
previously learned these odds, so you don't have to do any fancy math at
the table. You just remember that a flush draw with one card to come is
4-to-1 against, or a 20% chance.
-- You could make your flush and still lose, or fail to make your flush
and still win. These possible outcomes tend to (at least in part) cancel
one another, and we'll ignore them for this example.
-- There's pretty much no chance that any buff, raise, or other "fancy
play" will take down this pot, so it comes down to odds.
-- If your flush hits, river action might improve your odds (implied
odds.) If you call this turn, the BB might checkraise behind you and
reduce your odds. Again, we'll assume that these possibilities (VERY
roughly) cancel one another.
Recap:
Pot Odds: 2.75-to-1
Chance: 4-to-1 against
Decision: Fold
So there's the question. Have you [always][ever][never] folded your
flush draw in this spot? Or put differently: Do you ever passively call
and pray in this spot, trying to win the pot, knowingly taking the worst
of it?
Now let's change the situation and say that the SB had raised rather
than fold preflop, and the BB, limper, and you all called. Still checked
around on the flop, and still bet by the limper on he turn.
Pot Odds: 5-to-1
Chance: 4-to-1 against
Decision: Call?
Depends, right? With the two blinds yet to act behind you, and depending
on those players' traits, your image, and the game's "personality,"
there are probably times that folding or calling or raising might be
clearly indicated. Depends. But the point here is to remember, and to
think long and hard about the FACT that the guy who ALWAYS calls for ANY
draw will get there and take down the pot way more often than you do,
even while he goes broke along the way.
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Brilliant Business Models
Companies like amazon.com, overstock.com, and even victoriassecret.com
do a pretty good business selling merchandise over the internet.
Avoiding the expense of brick and mortar retail stores helps them cut
costs, and increase profits, and they do quite well. Along the way,
folks like UPS, FedEx, and the USPS get some business too.
But the one I *really* admire is: eBay. There, my friends, is the truly
brilliant business model. They don't have warehouses full of books or
lingerie. They don't pack, or ship, or track inventory, or process
returns on jack shit. All they have is an auction engine to put buyers
and sellers together, and a transaction vehicle in cyberspace to
facilitate the sale. Then they take a small cut as the money changes
hands. It's ingenious, and I sure as hell wish I'd thought of it first.
In the same way, an internet poker room provides just a service, with no
tangible product, and so is also a brilliant business model. Just
yesterday, for example, I bought in to a full $20/40 table for $800 at
Paradise Poker, posted $20 behind the button, and was dealt 98 offsuit.
Three guys limp in, BB and I both check, and the SB calls too. Flop
comes A77, and is checked around! Turn comes a Jack, giving me a
worthless gutshot draw, but the BB folds his hand even though there's no
bet to him (and you really gotta work at it to muck like that online...)
and everyone else checks. Well, shit, I bet! Everyone folds. Now my $800
stack is $897, having grown by the other five guy's $20 preflop calls,
less the $3 rake.
How many times does Paradise drop $3 like that in, say, a month? A
couple years ago I did the math and guesstimated their monthly drop at
$8 million. Couple months ago, Sports Illustrated said that Party was
raking $ 2.6 million PER DAY! But I digress.
I've been thinking about how to steal a brilliant business model from
one industry, and apply it in a whole 'nother place, and in a way that
nobody would ever have imagined. I mean, one inspired fresh idea can
make a millionaire, don't you think? I think so, and I also think I've
found a winner.
As you know, the airline industry was halfway into the toilet even
before 9/11, and since then, well, most airlines have just been bleeding
non-stop red ink. Hell, a couple of the biggest filed for bankruptcy
just last week. I have this idea, a concept stolen from the gaming
industry, that just might stop the bleeding. I have now sold my plan to
four major airlines, and they're preparing to implement it even as you
read this.
The pilots who fly for these big-name airlines get paid big bucks.
They're highly trained, assume huge responsibility, and have a powerful
union. Pilot salaries are big expense for any airline, representing a
large piece of the overall cost of doing business. Some airlines,
struggling to avoid bankruptcy, have conducted arduous negotiations with
their pilots, trying to get them to accept salary concessions. This is
what I seized on, and is where I found some low-hanging fruit that's
gonna make me rich.
Starting the first of next month, pilots at Trans World Airlines (TWA),
Pan American (PanAm), Eastern Airlines, and Hughes Air West will all be
paid minimum wage. No, that wasn't a typo; you read it right. This was a
tough sell with ALPA (the Airline Pilots Assn.), but they finally agreed
to give it a six month trial, based on a marketing campaign I put
together that is designed to ensure that the flying public is fully
aware of the change.
Then, during the boarding process, the pilots will be standing right
there at the cabin door, and each passenger will be expected to, you
know, slip them "a little something" in the way of a gratuity. Ten
dollars is the "recommended" tip for domestic flights, and twenty for
international or overseas, but those in First Class (and also those of
you who think of yourself as "better" than other people) will want to
avoid appearing cheap, and should give more. When pitching all this to
ALPA and the airlines I brought in some high-priced consultants,
doctoral psychologists and economists, and it was their projection that
pilot income will INCREASE slightly that convinced everyone to give it a
try.
The first airline CEO and his board were quite dubious— at first. "You
mean you want us to pass the cost of pilot salaries on to the customer?"
"No, silly," I told him. "You're already doing that! What I want you to
do is take a lesson from casinos that make millions— no, wait, BILLIONS—
by dealing sucker games to suckers. They don't pass the cost of dealer
salaries on to the customer, except maybe in places like London, where
tipping is prohibited. Here in America, even though their profits are
obscene, casinos pay their dealers minimum wage, but then create an
imaginary obligation to tip, thus TRANSFERRING responsibility for the
bulk of dealer income to the customer. And that customer, who is already
losing his ass, accepts this! You don't pass on costs; you TRANSFER
obligation. And that's what I want you to do. With your pilots."
Silence in the boardroom. A dozen pairs of unblinking eyes, mouths
agape, staring at me like I had a spike through my skull. But then,
slowly— I could almost hear the wheels turning inside his head— the CEO
began to smile a little, then more, and soon he was beaming broadly, and
laughing, and offering me a cigar. Now I'm his new best friend, and
later he privately told me how remarkable it seems to him that a concept
like this, founded so purely in greed, could actually work.
"Yes," I told him, "It is remarkable, isn't it?"
Flush with success, I looked for other venues where I might apply this
concept. And so I tried—
- The Supermarket. This idea was a loser. The grocery business is fairly
stable, and the checkout clerk is already making little better than
minimum wage. Lessons Learned: Focus on depressed industries, or where
costs are spiraling out of control, or where funding is constrained by
sickly government budgets. Don't try to sell the idea to another
industry yet; just try some independent unconventional tipping, see how
it goes, and gather data to use pitching industry execs later. And so I
tried—
- Medicine. It's just amazing what happened when I started tipping my
doctor. Now I have her private office, home and cell numbers, the
prescription pad is "loosened up," she makes house calls, and I did NOT
stand in line for MY flu shot. I also get a complimentary prostate exam
twice a month.
- The Clergy. Donating to the collection plate is one thing, but try a
generous individual toke directly to your priest. pastor or imam, and
see if he doesn't become your dedicated personal ambassador to The Almighty.
- Law Enforcement. Your cherry '68 Camaro is stolen right out of your
driveway, so you call 911. An officer from Auto Theft comes right over,
and is polite, professional, sympathetic, and pessimistic. He tells you
they have 133 open cases just in your precinct so far this year, a 2%
recovery rate, and "Good Luck." But tip him a Honey Bee (hundred bucks),
and your rig goes to the top of the watch list, with every police
cruiser in town out looking for it.
- The Workplace. Unlike most of you, I actually hold down a 9-to-5. If
you've ever seen me play, you should understand why I need to. Anyway, I
can hardly call it a "tip" when it goes to my boss, but a little spin
makes it seem innocent enough: "I been super-lucky in the poker games
lately [complete bullshit] and I just wanted to share my good fortune
with my good friends, like you!" Then another Honey Bee invested makes
it easy to "...head off to the Technical Library for some research..."
on a workday afternoon, but really run straight to the $30/60 game. If I
lose, well, hey, at least I was still on the clock.
- Your Kid's or Your Own Schoolteachers or Professors. I'm not going to
explain this one. If you don't get it yet, then never mind. :-)
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Continued in Part III
Sgt Rock
http://sgt.rock.home.comcast.net
mail2:
sgt DOT rock AT
comcast DOT net