Should the Nits, Old Men, Rocks, and Nut Peddlers Take Their Action to the Commerce Top Section?
Speed Racer
the Commerce Top Section?
The Commerce Top Section has gone to a $4 drop in their yellow chip HE
games, e.g. $15-$30 and $20-$40 HE.
For the average player, i.e. one who wins 1 out of 9 pots, the $4 drop
represents a huge collection increase.
If 40 hands are played per hour, the $4 drop takes $160 per hour in
collection.
If the time collection were $6 per hour in the $15-$30 game, only $108
per hour in collection would be taken.
The $4 drop takes an extra $52 per hour in collection or the
equivalent of $5.77 more per hour.
The $4 drop raises the collection in the $15-$30 HE to the equivalent
of $9 per hour-the same collection that is taken in the $40-$80 at
Hollywood Park.
In a 1000 hour playing year, the "average" player choosing to play the
Commerce yellow chip games will pay an extra $2885 per year.
The question posed by this post is can a nit, old man, rock or nut
peddler, because he plays fewer hands and wins fewer pots overcome the
increased "average" collection by playing fewer hands and winning
fewer pots.
In other words, if you are a nit, old man, rock or nut peddler, should
you take your action to the Commerce Top Section?
Suppose the nit, old man, rock or nut peddler only plays the top 11
hands-AA, KK, QQ, JJ, TT, AK, AQ, AJ, KQ, KJ and QJ. How much
collection can he expect to pay?
These top 11 hands comprise (5x6 plus 6x16) 126 out of a possible 1326
starting hands, i.e. 9.5% of the starting hands.
In no fold em hold em, these hands hold up on the river about 20% of
the time. This means that the nit, old man, rock or nut peddler will
only pay the $4 drop a maximum of 1.9% of the time. In other words,
the nit, old man, rock or nut peddler will pay $4 only .76 times per
hour, i.e. will pay only $3.04 per hour in collection.
By definition, a nit, old man, rock or nut peddler will not call with
all these hands to the river e.g. with no pair on the flop and some
betting or raising in front of him, he will fold so the collection
paid by the nit, old man, rock or nut peddler will actually be below
$3 per hour.
This is a huge DECREASE over paying $12 per hour at Hollywood Park.
I humbly conclude that if you are a nit, old man, rock or nut peddler,
you should move your action to the Commerce Top Section-over a 1000
playing year, you will save $9000 per year!
If you order a nice comped meal every time you sit down, the nit, old
man, rock or nut peddler can actually play for FREE in the Commerce
yellow chip games.
The flip side of these calculations is that the other players are
making up for the lower collection paid by the nits, old men, rocks
and nut peddlers.
If the Commerce yellow chip games fill up with nits, old men, rocks
and nut peddlers, the amount of collection the other players must
necessarily be greater than $9 per half hour.
In a multi-venue poker market like Los Angeles, is there any question
what will happen to the Commerce's yellow chip action in the long run?
Speed Racer
Bjgkaraoke
>The Commerce Top Section has gone to a $4 drop in their yellow chip HE
>games, e.g. $15-$30 and $20-$40 HE.
The Bicycle Casino takes a $3 drop in the 10-20 thru 20-40 HE games. In
addition, a player who plays over 25 hours a month gets paid $5 per hour
rebate.
>For the average player, i.e. one who wins 1 out of 9 pots, the $4 drop
>represents a huge collection increase.
>
>If 40 hands are played per hour, the $4 drop takes $160 per hour in
>collection.
<snip discussion of what a nit, etc., could save by playing at Commerce>
In view of your calculations, a player who gives his action to the Bicycle
instead of the Commerce, could pay $9 less per hour at the Bike, when the $5
rebate is considered.
Barbara Gallamore
Phat Mack
Speed Racer <Speed...@yahoo.com> wrote:
> In a multi-venue poker market like Los Angeles, is there any question
> what will happen to the Commerce's yellow chip action in the long run?
I think your speculations are correct. I have seen similar changes kill
hi-lo games in a matter of days.
Speed Racer
knowledgeable L.A. Top Section players avoid it is not the collection.
Because of the lower collection, the Bike's Top Section's action
should have slowly increased and their player base should have
inexorable grown beginning in Jan 2001 when the Player Rewards Program
was started.
It didn't and the level of action has not changed much in the past
year.
This is especially true because with the $3 drop plus rebate, even the
action players are paying less or about the same collection at the
Bike as they currently do at Hollywood Park or the Commerce before the
$4 drop.
If I were the Bike Top Section management, I would ask myself---how
can Hollywood Park increase its' action spreading more and more tables
over the last 6 months and bringing in more and more regular players
while the Bike's action and player base remains stagnant?
The pool of poker players is increasing everyday, but the Bike Top
Section is for some unidentified reason not getting its' fair share.
It is a management cop out to simply say the Bike has a bad location.
This is like the CEO of Kmart saying they can't compete against
WalMart because their costs are lower or the CEO of Burger King
telling its stockholders they can't beat McDonalds because the food at
McDonald's tastes better.
When I think of the Bike Top Section, I think of the lyrics from the
great Michael Jackson song--Man in the Mirror.
"If you want to make the world a better place, take a look in the
mirror and make a change" or the business equivalent, "If you want to
make your business a more profitable one, take a close look at your
own operations, figure out what is wrong, and fix it."
Rick Nebiolo
wrote:
>Should the Nits, Old Men, Rocks, and Nut Peddlers Take Their Action to
>the Commerce Top Section?
>
>
>
>The Commerce Top Section has gone to a $4 drop in their yellow chip HE
>games, e.g. $15-$30 and $20-$40 HE.
>
>For the average player, i.e. one who wins 1 out of 9 pots, the $4 drop
>represents a huge collection increase.
>
>If 40 hands are played per hour, the $4 drop takes $160 per hour in
>collection.
If the game does in fact tighten up (and I believe it will), then 40
hands per hour is about right. I'd estimate the typical 20/40 or
15/30 full game collected using time gets about 35 to 38 hands per
hour. Of course you will get more walking with drop, which can stall
the game and lead to reduced drops per hand (although Commerce does
not reduce drop until the game is 6 handed).
>If the time collection were $6 per hour in the $15-$30 game, only $108
>per hour in collection would be taken.
You need a proofreader - I'm bet one of your Econ 101 students would
do it for a slight improvement in a grade. Anyway, the Commerce 15/30
collection used to be $14 per hour (at least $2 per hour more than
other local casinos with time collections) collected at the rate of $7
every half hour. Of course the Commerce had its problems collecting,
as described in the following RGP thread written by World Class Poker
Player:
Given the difficulties of taking time collections, I'd say a fair
estimate of the Commerce's former full table (or nearly full table)
time collection for 15/30 was about $115 per hour. For 20/40
(collected at the rate of $16 per hour) the rate was about $130 per
hour.
>The $4 drop takes an extra $52 per hour in collection or the
>equivalent of $5.77 more per hour.
With the new drop my estimate is that the Commerce will get:
- approximately 30 full table (seven handed or more) drops @ $4
- approximately 5 five-handed or six-handed drops @ $2
- approximately 5 "adjusted drops" on no flop or four handed @ $1
This adds up to about $135 per hour.
Averaging the two estimates for time collection with a realistic
number for drop I's estimate they will take about $13 per hour more
off the table with the new system. That's still significant but not
quite as hyperbolic as your estimate.
>The $4 drop raises the collection in the $15-$30 HE to the equivalent
>of $9 per hour-the same collection that is taken in the $40-$80 at
>Hollywood Park.
>
>In a 1000 hour playing year, the "average" player choosing to play the
>Commerce yellow chip games will pay an extra $2885 per year.
>
>The question posed by this post is can a nit, old man, rock or nut
>peddler, because he plays fewer hands and wins fewer pots overcome the
>increased "average" collection by playing fewer hands and winning
>fewer pots.
>
>In other words, if you are a nit, old man, rock or nut peddler, should
>you take your action to the Commerce Top Section?
>
>Suppose the nit, old man, rock or nut peddler only plays the top 11
>hands-AA, KK, QQ, JJ, TT, AK, AQ, AJ, KQ, KJ and QJ. How much
>collection can he expect to pay?
You forgot to mention that the small blind in 15/30 is a single yellow
chip (which of course mostly disappears as drop). Nits, rocks and nut
peddlers should love that even more!
>These top 11 hands comprise (5x6 plus 6x16) 126 out of a possible 1326
>starting hands, i.e. 9.5% of the starting hands.
>
>In no fold em hold em, these hands hold up on the river about 20% of
>the time. This means that the nit, old man, rock or nut peddler will
>only pay the $4 drop a maximum of 1.9% of the time. In other words,
>the nit, old man, rock or nut peddler will pay $4 only .76 times per
>hour, i.e. will pay only $3.04 per hour in collection.
FYI, when I was breaking in at the super loose holdem games back in
1987 and 1988 (when they didn't take drop at 5/10 unless the pot was
$30), I won .51 pots per round at the 5/10 level and .39 pots per
round at the 3/6 level (I kept track of pots won and blinds posted
with matchbooks and entered the results in dbase). I beat the games
big time for that limit but I didn't exactly use a semi-bluffing
strategy. Of course the yellow games will be much tighter and the
opponents tougher but this gives you an idea of "nit mentality" in
good games.
>By definition, a nit, old man, rock or nut peddler will not call with
>all these hands to the river e.g. with no pair on the flop and some
>betting or raising in front of him, he will fold so the collection
>paid by the nit, old man, rock or nut peddler will actually be below
>$3 per hour.
The $3 estimate must be adjusted for the usual Speed Racer hyperbole;
however, there is no question that the nit, rock or nut peddler (since
I'm almost 50, I resent your frequent references to old men :) ) will
not pay his "fair share" of collection.
BTW, Kenneth Ng wrote about the probably impact of a switch from time
to drop in California games in the following thread:
You should read this guy since you cover similar territory and have
similar mindsets.
>This is a huge DECREASE over paying $12 per hour at Hollywood Park.
>
>I humbly conclude that if you are a nit, old man, rock or nut peddler,
>you should move your action to the Commerce Top Section-over a 1000
>playing year, you will save $9000 per year!
This is of course correct if you were the only nit, rock or nut
peddler. Since nits tend to know this, they will be attracted to the
games, but unfortunately other nits will too. Nits will be nits but
they hate playing against other nits.
>If you order a nice comped meal every time you sit down, the nit, old
>man, rock or nut peddler can actually play for FREE in the Commerce
>yellow chip games.
As an aside, I wish the clubs never started comping food. In the end
we all pay for the excessive consumption of many of the regulars (and
many regulars pay with their waistlines). Better would be to make the
top section food half price and restrict full comps to the very high
limits (80/160 and above).
>The flip side of these calculations is that the other players are
>making up for the lower collection paid by the nits, old men, rocks
>and nut peddlers.
At very low limits the games can stand a few nits since there will
always be enough action anyway. Of course I've never experienced
Sam's Town on a midweek afternoon ;-).
>If the Commerce yellow chip games fill up with nits, old men, rocks
>and nut peddlers, the amount of collection the other players must
>necessarily be greater than $9 per half hour.
Of course this is true. However, initially the other players won't
notice it because the cost will be hidden in the pots they win.
>In a multi-venue poker market like Los Angeles, is there any question
>what will happen to the Commerce's yellow chip action in the long run?
Expect tighter games, games often stalled due to excess walking, but
continued success for the Commerce due to the overwhelming popularity
of poker and their excellent facility and location.
Remember, as long as the likes of Speed Racer, Kenneth Ng, Snakehead,
Howard Lederer, Warren Karp and others of their ilk can't get together
with investors and open their own card club we will never know just
how big a market there really is for B&M poker.
Regards,
Rick
Steve N
after following the links to previous posts, I've decided to host a home
game and invite Kenneth Ng, Speed Racer, and World Class Poker Player. I'm
convinced I can handily beat all three of them :)
Steve N
"Rick Nebiolo" <ricknebiolo...@earthlink.net> wrote in message
news:20sf20580e6ooqpcm...@4ax.com...
Unknown
wrote:
>Suppose the nit, old man, rock or nut peddler only plays the top 11
>hands-AA, KK, QQ, JJ, TT, AK, AQ, AJ, KQ, KJ and QJ
These are the top eleven hands?
Unknown
wrote:
>I think your speculations are correct. I have seen similar changes kill
>hi-lo games in a matter of days.
Ironically, the Commerce just might win back its 20-40 hi-lo games.
We'll know after the tournament is over.
Speed Racer
Style" poker, i.e. 6 nits, rocks, and old men trying to pick off the
out-of-town tournament players visiting for the weekend.
Steve N
> Ironically, the Commerce just might win back its 20-40 hi-lo games. We'll
know after the tournament is over. <
The Bike has become the center for 20/40 Stud 8 games, but a temporary
decision to change the food comp policy apparently caused some defections to
the Commerce. The Bike quickly scrapped the policy, and I expect the games
will be back there soon.
Steve N
Speed Racer
Actually, most nits, rocks, weak tights and old men won't play KJ, KQ,
or QJ unless they get to play them in the blinds for free or a half
bet or 6+ people have limped in front of them.
They also don'e play TT in early postion and muck them in middle and
late position when the pot is raised in front of them. :)
Bjgkaraoke
You couldn't be more wrong. Where are these nut peddlers? Most old men I know
play really bad. In fact, they're my favorite opponents. Speedy, you label
players to fit your thesis, but you're wrong.
Barbara Gallamore
Barbara Gallamore
Speed Racer
played there and was obviously a regular.
He is white, over 65, 6 ft. tall, usually wears a denim jacket and
makes frequent and incessant off color sexual comments to the cocktail
waitresses, good looking chip runners, and the better looking female
players.
He actually seems like a very nice guy although it is embarssing when
he is in his "dirty old man" mode--sort of reminds me of a large
proportion of my uncles and long married friends. :)
He plays pretty much as I described.
His idea of going crazy is raising on the button on the flop with 3
callers when he has flopped the nut flush draw.
When he turns over the nut flush on the river---assuming anyone pays
him off--he has this wild man expression on his face---sort of like
Tarzan after he has rescued Jane from the natives who were about to
boil her in a big pot and eat her for dinner. It's either scary or
funny depending on your perspective.
I actually felt like applauding after he did this once---I thought it
would make him feel good about himself.
Bjgkaraoke
<snip an example of old man tight player>
OK, so you cite one example. I could give you dozens of examples that fit the
bad player category. I say "Bring 'em On!
:)
Barbara Gallamore
Speed Racer
If we talked to this guy, he was probably a P51 fighter pilot in WWII
with 4 kills, who was shot down while firebombing Dresden, escaped
from a nazi prisoner of war camp, snuck back through nazi-occupied
France, bedded several French virgins on the way, and was given the
Legion of Honor by Charles DeGaulle after V-day----and only became a
nit when he hit 70!
Speedy
Rick Nebiolo
Speed Racer may be one to overuse stereotypes and engage in hyperbole
but with a change from time collection to per hand drop in middle
limits expect a higher proportion of nits, rocks, and nut peddlers to
infest the games. This change in the style of games is inevitable and
it will hasten over time.
Nits, rocks, and nut peddlers may move into town from nit havens such
as Las Vegas or develop from the existing base of residents and
players. As Speed Racer more or less explained, the current Los
Angeles area everyday regular "marginal action player" may become more
of a nit, rock or nut peddler when it dawns on him that if he doesn't
play marginal hands or marginal situations he won't pay drop as often.
The still looser regular or semi-regular player who otherwise doesn't
pay much attention to collection may then fold his 9-6 suited preflop
when he sees that he can't win a big multi-way pot. Now the real
gambler may pass on the game (or leave it early) when he sees the pots
are small. The trend to tighter games filled with a higher
proportion of nits, rocks and nut peddlers will take time and
sometimes be interrupted by other factors (as it is now with the
infusion of new blood due to the success of the WPT and WSOP on
television) but it is otherwise inexorable. Conversely, expect the
remaining base of "action players" to slowly gravitate towards the
card clubs that keep time collection for middle limits and above.
Of course the nits, rocks and nut peddlers may or may not be "old men"
or even "old white men" as described in this previous Speed Racer
post: http://tinyurl.com/224wc. In a multi-cultural arena such as Los
Angeles we can expect to find the nit, rock, nut peddler stereotype
within various ages, genders and ethnic groups.
BTW, I don't believe Speed Racer was racist in his depiction. My own
observation is that you have many "old white men" who have retired and
moved into inexpensive Las Vegas homes and apartments in large part to
spend their remaining days in large part playing a certain style of
poker that is anathema to the Los Angeles based player. As Speed
Racer hilariously wrote in the above linked post they sit six deep in
the typical game and "take turns playing one hand per hour heads up on
the flop against a guy from Iowa who doesn't know what a dominated
hand means".
Speed Racer notes that most of the existing base of Los Angeles
players doesn't think this is much fun. Although I'm marginally old,
almost a "blue blood" by Los Angeles standards, and tend to be
somewhat tight and sometimes a nut peddler (I deny being a nit), I
agree.
Regards,
Rick
A. Prock
>Nits, rocks, and nut peddlers may move into town from nit havens such
>as Las Vegas or develop from the existing base of residents and
>players.
I think that part of the problem with this theory is that even
in collection games, you can do just fine by playing a nittish
style. The only time the collection becomes a problem is if
the game is full of nits.
What's going on in LA is a different dynamic than tight players
avoiding the time charges. I believe it has a lot more to do
with the general lack of other gambling outlets than the per hand
drop. There's also the issue of the cost of living in LA, which
is more likely to drive the nits to LV than the per hand cost.
- Andrew
Rick Nebiolo
wrote:
>According to Rick Nebiolo <ricknebiolo...@earthlink.net>:
>>Nits, rocks, and nut peddlers may move into town from nit havens such
>>as Las Vegas or develop from the existing base of residents and
>>players.
>
>I think that part of the problem with this theory is that even
>in collection games, you can do just fine by playing a nittish
>style.
By collection I assume you mean time collection although drop is
acceptable when the game is good and loose. In any event I agree you
can do fine at the 15/30 and to a lesser extent the 20/40 holdem games
with a "nitish" style but in Los Angeles you do even better playing a
dynamic style that includes more moves, e.g., semi-bluffing, Addulian
"bank shots", pumping with draws and so on.
>The only time the collection becomes a problem is if
>the game is full of nits.
Games full of nits are problematical; however, if you had a game full
of nits and there was a time charge, a top player such as yourself
will do well running over the game with advanced tactics. You end up
winning more than your fair share of hands but pay the same collection
as the nits, rocks, and nut peddlers.
If the same game was collected drop (where any flop takes full
collection) and to a lesser extent rake (taken incrementally on
thresholds) you wouldn't do so well since you end up paying way more
than your fair share of the drop or rake.
>What's going on in LA is a different dynamic than tight players
>avoiding the time charges. I believe it has a lot more to do
>with the general lack of other gambling outlets than the per hand
>drop.
I agree that other dynamics are in play. Few sane individuals with a
gambling problem retire to Las Vegas but many retirees with potential
gambling problems (but no love for poker) already live in Los Angeles.
And there is little doubt that if other gambling outlets e.g., slots,
craps, real blackjack become available within the county the poker
action will be hurt as action players gravitate to those games where
they only lose to the house as opposed to their poker opponents and
the house.
>There's also the issue of the cost of living in LA, which
>is more likely to drive the nits to LV than the per hand cost.
True. A nit on a low budget wouldn't want to pay a Los Angeles area
nut. However, in a population of over 12 million within an hour's
drive of the Los Angeles card clubs, nits will come out of the cracks
of society just as roaches invade a cheap hotel.
Regards,
Rick
Speed Racer
especially if extended to defending the blinds. It is a rare nit who
plays super tight pre-flop, doesn't adjust his starting requirements
for game conditions, and is good enough to break even/win when he is
in the blinds.
The run of the mill nit might be able to break even against
unobservant opponents who don't notice/adjust to his style and
continue to call/raise into the big pocket pairs and top
pair/excellent kicker or bad players who cannot get themselves to muck
enough hands.
My observation is that players do adjust and eventually the super
nit's play degenerates into the strategies of
1) limping with Ace-big and big pockets in middle and late position
pre-flop in a pathetic attempt to get some action on the one hand they
play every other hour.
2) check-calling to the river with top pair/top kicker again in a
pathetic and desperate attempt to get paid off.
3) running from club to club to club hoping to find a table of
strangers that will take awhile to figure out and adjust to their
playing style.
These are not winning strategies.
Most of the nits I play with end up disappearing from the game. I
assume this is because they run out of money not because they retire
to Aruba on their poker winnings.