On Friday, October 10, 2003 at 5:19:31 PM UTC+2, Adam Conner-Sax wrote:
> 2 hi <
2.hi....@noemail.com> wrote in message news:<
2.hi....@noemail.com>...
> > I am not a conspiracy moron (I don't believe the sites are rigged) and I
> > understand that 100,000+ is a very, very good sample size, but aren't
> > the actuals and expected probabilities freakishly close??? Does anyone
> > else feel the same way???
>
> For an event that either happens with probability p or doesn't with
> probability 1-p and 120k hands you expect to observe
>
> p +/- p/350
>
> The posted probabilities seem more or less reasonably distributed for
> that many hands.
>
> Adam
I'm exclusively an 18 man turbo SNG player who knows how huge the ICM is in this games and I'm getting screwed on the money bubble with around 75% average equity over 90% of the time, i have lost with AA in these spots 9/10 times 5 times vs Ax even.
Just look at this hand to see how badly i get setup on the bubble:
Table '1222130367 1' 9-max Seat #8 is the button
Seat 1: mattias132 (4910 in chips)
Seat 2: nicouru32 (6081 in chips)
Seat 5: pittry20 (11577 in chips)
Seat 7: bajaifiu (670 in chips)
Seat 8: dan_doran02 (3762 in chips)
mattias132: posts the ante 25
nicouru32: posts the ante 25
pittry20: posts the ante 25
bajaifiu: posts the ante 25
dan_doran02: posts the ante 25
mattias132: posts small blind 150
nicouru32: posts big blind 300
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to mattias132 [9h Ah]
pittry20: folds
bajaifiu: raises 345 to 645 and is all-in
dan_doran02: folds
mattias132: calls 495
nicouru32: calls 345
*** FLOP *** [7s 5h 8h]
mattias132: checks
nicouru32: bets 927
mattias132: raises 3313 to 4240 and is all-in
nicouru32: calls 3313
*** TURN *** [7s 5h 8h] [4c]
*** RIVER *** [7s 5h 8h 4c] [9d]
*** SHOW DOWN ***
mattias132: shows [9h Ah] (a pair of Nines)
nicouru32: shows [As Ad] (a pair of Aces)
nicouru32 collected 8480 from side pot
bajaifiu: shows [Qh 6d] (a straight, Five to Nine)
bajaifiu collected 2060 from main pot
mattias132 finished the tournament in 5th place
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot 10540 Main pot 2060. Side pot 8480. | Rake 0
Board [7s 5h 8h 4c 9d]
Seat 1: mattias132 (small blind) showed [9h Ah] and lost with a pair of Nines
Seat 2: nicouru32 (big blind) showed [As Ad] and won (8480) with a pair of Aces
Seat 5: pittry20 folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 7: bajaifiu showed [Qh 6d] and won (2060) with a straight, Five to Nine
Seat 8: dan_doran02 (button) folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Here are some more examples of me losing on the bubble and again I know huge huge the ICM is in these games:
PokerStars Hand #139897853358: Tournament #1307199676, $3.16+$0.34 USD Hold'em No Limit - Level IX (200/400) - 2015/08/25 16:47:28 ET
Table '1307199676 1' 9-max Seat #1 is the button
Seat 1: 7thsignx (1143 in chips)
Seat 5: SereJkee94 (10878 in chips)
Seat 7: mattias132 (4436 in chips)
Seat 8: Pirat3354 (3932 in chips)
Seat 9: jjokocha666 (6611 in chips)
7thsignx: posts the ante 25
SereJkee94: posts the ante 25
mattias132: posts the ante 25
Pirat3354: posts the ante 25
jjokocha666: posts the ante 25
SereJkee94: posts small blind 200
mattias132: posts big blind 400
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to mattias132 [As Ah]
Pirat3354: folds
jjokocha666: folds
7thsignx: folds
SereJkee94: raises 10453 to 10853 and is all-in
mattias132: calls 4011 and is all-in
Uncalled bet (6442) returned to SereJkee94
*** FLOP *** [Td 3c Th]
*** TURN *** [Td 3c Th] [5s]
*** RIVER *** [Td 3c Th 5s] [6s]
*** SHOW DOWN ***
SereJkee94: shows [Ts 2s] (three of a kind, Tens)
mattias132: shows [As Ah] (two pair, Aces and Tens)
SereJkee94 collected 8947 from pot
mattias132 finished the tournament in 5th place
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot 8947 | Rake 0
Board [Td 3c Th 5s 6s]
Seat 1: 7thsignx (button) folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 5: SereJkee94 (small blind) showed [Ts 2s] and won (8947) with three of a kind, Tens
Seat 7: mattias132 (big blind) showed [As Ah] and lost with two pair, Aces and Tens
Seat 8: Pirat3354 folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 9: jjokocha666 folded before Flop (didn't bet)
PokerStars Hand #142509996860: Tournament #1352826761, $6.45+$0.55 USD Hold'em No Limit - Level X (300/600) - 2015/10/20 13:49:48 ET
Table '1352826761 2' 9-max Seat #5 is the button
Seat 1: Prosims (3302 in chips)
Seat 3: maidan2014 (2835 in chips)
Seat 5: jangrppat (3833 in chips)
Seat 6: Celebes87 (10006 in chips)
Seat 7: mattias132 (7024 in chips)
Prosims: posts the ante 50
maidan2014: posts the ante 50
jangrppat: posts the ante 50
Celebes87: posts the ante 50
mattias132: posts the ante 50
Celebes87: posts small blind 300
mattias132: posts big blind 600
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to mattias132 [Qs Qh]
Prosims: folds
maidan2014: folds
jangrppat: folds
Celebes87: raises 9356 to 9956 and is all-in
mattias132: calls 6374 and is all-in
Uncalled bet (2982) returned to Celebes87
*** FLOP *** [4h 2s 7d]
*** TURN *** [4h 2s 7d] [7h]
*** RIVER *** [4h 2s 7d 7h] [Ts]
*** SHOW DOWN ***
Celebes87: shows [7c Td] (a full house, Sevens full of Tens)
mattias132: shows [Qs Qh] (two pair, Queens and Sevens)
Celebes87 collected 14198 from pot
mattias132 finished the tournament in 5th place
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot 14198 | Rake 0
Board [4h 2s 7d 7h Ts]
Seat 1: Prosims folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 3: maidan2014 folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 5: jangrppat (button) folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 6: Celebes87 (small blind) showed [7c Td] and won (14198) with a full house, Sevens full of Tens
Seat 7: mattias132 (big blind) showed [Qs Qh] and lost with two pair, Queens and Sevens
PokerStars Hand #142613494098: Tournament #1355165730, $6.45+$0.55 USD Hold'em No Limit - Level IX (200/400) - 2015/10/22 12:43:14 ET
Table '1355165730 1' 9-max Seat #5 is the button
Seat 2: AdamPoker91 (2270 in chips)
Seat 4: ZOUZOUNI1998 (7544 in chips)
Seat 5: NegsNegsNegz (12749 in chips)
Seat 6: mattias132 (1788 in chips)
Seat 9: SfastDiat (2649 in chips)
AdamPoker91: posts the ante 25
ZOUZOUNI1998: posts the ante 25
NegsNegsNegz: posts the ante 25
mattias132: posts the ante 25
SfastDiat: posts the ante 25
mattias132: posts small blind 200
SfastDiat: posts big blind 400
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to mattias132 [Kh Kc]
AdamPoker91: folds
ZOUZOUNI1998: folds
NegsNegsNegz: raises 12324 to 12724 and is all-in
mattias132: calls 1563 and is all-in
SfastDiat: folds
Uncalled bet (10961) returned to NegsNegsNegz
*** FLOP *** [Ts Qc 7h]
*** TURN *** [Ts Qc 7h] [As]
*** RIVER *** [Ts Qc 7h As] [Th]
*** SHOW DOWN ***
mattias132: shows [Kh Kc] (two pair, Kings and Tens)
NegsNegsNegz: shows [Td 3c] (three of a kind, Tens)
NegsNegsNegz collected 4051 from pot
mattias132 finished the tournament in 5th place
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot 4051 | Rake 0
Board [Ts Qc 7h As Th]
Seat 2: AdamPoker91 folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 4: ZOUZOUNI1998 folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 5: NegsNegsNegz (button) showed [Td 3c] and won (4051) with three of a kind, Tens
Seat 6: mattias132 (small blind) showed [Kh Kc] and lost with two pair, Kings and Tens
Seat 9: SfastDiat (big blind) folded before Flop
PokerStars Hand #144977169021: Tournament #1402933253, $6.45+$0.55 USD Hold'em No Limit - Level XI (400/800) - 2015/12/07 13:18:41 ET
Table '1402933253 2' 9-max Seat #9 is the button
Seat 4: mattias132 (1112 in chips)
Seat 5: lasomaso (1831 in chips)
Seat 6: oOwL (2165 in chips)
Seat 7: Auldtrafford (1658 in chips)
Seat 9: Gorgosali16 (20234 in chips)
mattias132: posts the ante 50
lasomaso: posts the ante 50
oOwL: posts the ante 50
Auldtrafford: posts the ante 50
Gorgosali16: posts the ante 50
mattias132: posts small blind 400
lasomaso: posts big blind 800
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to mattias132 [As Ah]
oOwL: folds
Auldtrafford: folds
Gorgosali16: raises 19384 to 20184 and is all-in
mattias132: calls 662 and is all-in
lasomaso: folds
Uncalled bet (19122) returned to Gorgosali16
*** FLOP *** [5h Qs Td]
*** TURN *** [5h Qs Td] [Jh]
*** RIVER *** [5h Qs Td Jh] [7c]
*** SHOW DOWN ***
mattias132: shows [As Ah] (a pair of Aces)
Gorgosali16: shows [7d Qd] (two pair, Queens and Sevens)
Gorgosali16 collected 3174 from pot
mattias132 finished the tournament in 5th place
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot 3174 | Rake 0
Board [5h Qs Td Jh 7c]
Seat 4: mattias132 (small blind) showed [As Ah] and lost with a pair of Aces
Seat 5: lasomaso (big blind) folded before Flop
Seat 6: oOwL folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 7: Auldtrafford folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 9: Gorgosali16 (button) showed [7d Qd] and won (3174) with two pair, Queens and Sevens
If these games are indeed random how can i be losing with these frequencies over a pretty hefty hand sample? We definitely need a proper analysis.