Saw something rare today playing O8
BillB
have flopped A2345 straight flush and lost money. But today I saw
something I really don't remember seeing before. In a 6 handed game,
two people (one being myself) dealt AA23ds preflop. What would the
odds of that be?
Jason Pawloski
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Beatsy
here's a long-winded way of saying "I dunno"...
Wapedia says 270,725 omaha starting hands
If 16 of those are AA23ds (how many A2s A3s combos are there!?)
You will be dealt AA23ds 1 time in 16,920 (270725/16)
Chance of two being dealt is, ummm, dunno... 280m/1?
give up - hope someone else knows...
misanthropic whackjob
The odds of something happening that happened? 100%.
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K9way
Much more likely that this did in fact happen , as opposed to your claim
to have won 1000 playing .02- .05 blind PLO8
Just when you think that youve been gypped ..the bearded lady comes and
does a double back flip!!! John Hiatt in "Buffalo River Home"
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BillB
"K9way" <ad1...@webnntp.invalid> wrote in message
news:873eu6x...@recgroups.com...
> Much more likely that this did in fact happen , as opposed to your
> claim
> to have won 1000 playing .02- .05 blind PLO8
If you can show me where I made such a claim, I will give you $1000.
If you can't, admit you are compulsive liar who has absolutely zero
credibility.
K9way
This is close enough for me
Just to put it in perspective, Paul put $20 in my empty Pokerstars
account around October 20 and I am up just under $1000 playing almost
nothing but .02-.05 PLO8 and .05-.10 PLO8. And I wasn't playing all
that much; I just made Gold star today.
Please deposit 1000 US dollars to dggystyle ..on FTP ..ty
Just when you think that youve been gypped ..the bearded lady comes and
does a double back flip!!! John Hiatt in "Buffalo River Home"
------�
BillB
"K9way" <ad1...@webnntp.invalid> wrote in message
news:no4eu6x...@recgroups.com...
>> > Much more likely that this did in fact happen , as opposed to
>> > your
>> > claim
>> > to have won 1000 playing .02- .05 blind PLO8
>>
>> If you can show me where I made such a claim, I will give you
>> $1000.
>> If you can't, admit you are compulsive liar who has absolutely zero
>> credibility.
>
>
> This is close enough for me
>
> Just to put it in perspective, Paul put $20 in my empty Pokerstars
> account around October 20 and I am up just under $1000 playing
> almost
> nothing but .02-.05 PLO8 and .05-.10 PLO8. And I wasn't playing all
> that much; I just made Gold star today.
So you are, in fact, a compulsive liar who has zero credibility. I am
sure everyone is SHOCKED to realize that.
garycarson
> On Nov 29 2009 9:32 PM, BillB wrote:
>
> > I have seen all sorts of crazy stuff playing O8. For example, twice I
> > have flopped A2345 straight flush and lost money. But today I saw
> > something I really don't remember seeing before. In a 6 handed game,
> > two people (one being myself) dealt AA23ds preflop. What would the
> > odds of that be?
>
> The odds of something happening that happened? 100%.
>
>
The probability of it happening sometime in the future is 1.
-----�
Arlo-Payne
Bill you and I both know you could win $1000 playing 02-05 it would just
take a little time.
You kill low limit PLOH/L something a dog could never do.
-----�
Tim Norfolk
I believe that this is what you want:
There are
a = C(52;4,4,4,4,4,4,4,4,4,4)
= 52!/((4!)^10*12!) =
2,655,822,286,587,908,812,614,958,753,300,780,515,000,000,000
= 2.656 * 10^45
ways of dealing the 4 hole cards to the 10 players.
There are
b = C(10,2)*C(4,2)*C(2,2)*C(44;4,4,4,4,4,4,4,4)
= 13,612,447,372,340,342,563,288,535,384,100,000,000
= 1.361*10^37
ways of dealing the hole cards so that two players have AA22 double-
suited.
Thus, the odds against it happening at a 10-handed table is the ratio
(a-b)/b = 585307447/3 = 1.951*10^8
which is approximately 200 million to 1 against.
If you have AA22 double-suited, then the odds against someone else at
the same table having that hand is thus about 1 billion to 1 against.
Beatsy
Bugger - I just drafted this, then saw you'd posted yours. I got a
different answer, but gonna post it anyway - it made my brain hurt.
=========
Had to try again...
270725 possible 4 card starting hands (52*51*50*49)
12 distinct AA23 double suited hands (6 ways to arrange two aces times
2 ways to double suit each pair)
probability of being dealt AA23ds is 12/270725 = 1/22560
the other guy only has two ways to get AA23ds (one remaining pair of
aces and 2 ways to double suit both)
chance of him getting AA23ds is now 2/270725 = 1/135363
probability of you both being dealt AA23ds = 1/135363 * 1/22560
A whopping one in 3 billion - heads up
Given we're taking 2 hands out of 6 dealt, I guess that lowers the
odds by a third (the odds that you'll see it happen on a 6 handed
table - not that you will always have the hand yourself)
So the answer to "how often will two players be dealt AA23ds on a 6
handed table" is...
approximately one in a billion!
Probably...?
garycarson
Y'all are going to an awful lot of work to try to address an ill-formed
question that has a very simple answer. Eventually everything happens.
Tim Norfolk
wrote:
>
> - Show quoted text -
Not quite. The probability of any one event happening approaches 1,
but that doesn't mean that it will happen.
BillB
"Tim Norfolk" <tims...@aol.com> wrote in message
news:1238ca5e-72a2-4065...@g27g2000yqn.googlegroups.com...
> Not quite. The probability of any one event happening approaches 1,
> but that doesn't mean that it will happen.
Ha, that's what I was going to say. But that didn't answer my question
anyway. Your calculations did. Thanks. So it turns out I was overdue
to see it ;-)
BillB
"Tim Norfolk" <tims...@aol.com> wrote in message
news:c6651b0b-6979-41b2...@r24g2000yqd.googlegroups.com...
> which is approximately 200 million to 1 against.
>
> If you have AA22 double-suited, then the odds against someone else
> at
> the same table having that hand is thus about 1 billion to 1
> against.
Ya, but (imho) AA22ds doesn't have the same panache of an AA23ds
That reminds me. The last time I posted something like this some
drunkard from the gallery piped up, "If you don't have a hand history,
it never happened!"
The hand # is 36021782336, iff Venx hasn't erased it from the master
database yet.
mo_charles
> > question that has a very simple answer. �Eventually everything happens.
>
> but that doesn't mean that it will happen.
wait, so are you saying gary will or will not admit he was wrong?
mo_charles
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garycarson
> > > Y'all are going to an awful lot of work to try to address an ill-formed
> > > question that has a very simple answer. �Eventually everything happens.
> >
> > Not quite. The probability of any one event happening approaches 1,
> > but that doesn't mean that it will happen.
>
> wait, so are you saying gary will or will not admit he was wrong?
>
> mo_charles
What I should have said is that eventually anything happening is a sure
thing, which is just another way to say it will happen with probability 1.
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Tim Norfolk
> "Tim Norfolk" <timsn...@aol.com> wrote in message
You've played 1 billion hands?
Tim Norfolk
wrote:
The point, of course, being that 'sure things' do not always happen.
garycarson
> On Dec 1, 8:40�pm, "garycarson" <garycar...@alumni.northwestern.edu>
> wrote:
> > On Dec 1 2009 8:11 PM, mo_charles wrote:
> >
> > > > > Y'all are going to an awful lot of work to try to address an
ill-formed
> > > > > question that has a very simple answer. �Eventually everything
happens.
> >
> > > > Not quite. The probability of any one event happening approaches 1,
> > > > but that doesn't mean that it will happen.
> >
> > > wait, so are you saying gary will or will not admit he was wrong?
> >
> > > mo_charles
> >
> > What I should have said is that eventually anything happening is a sure
> > thing, which is just another way to say it will happen with probability 1..
> >
> > ____________________________________________________________________�
> > : the next generation of web-newsreaders :http://www.recgroups.com
>
> The point, of course, being that 'sure things' do not always happen.
Unless it's a room full of an infinite number of monkeys and typewriters.
Like usenet.
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