Systems and other myths....
cardano
On Tue, 14 May 1996 00:30:08 -0700, you wrote:
>Michael A. Solinas wrote:
>>
>> Mason Clarke <Ma...@mailhost.onramp.net> wrote:
>> >PS. How are the sales on that $.50 per page paperback on biased wheels
>> >going?
>> >
>>
>> I reviewed the book for "BlackJack Forum." Thought it was extremely
>> good. The software that came with it made it a very interesting
>> package.
>Does it begin by explaining that the problem of biased wheels is known to
>every casino manager? So your first task it to find a casino that
>doesn't take steps to protect itself against wheel bias.
In a previous answer to you I pointed out that casino management is far
from homogeneous in its attitudes and responses to these sorts of
things.
Where did you get this piece of information? Have you done a survey of
casino managers around the world? Or do you just know about few examples
in Las Vegas?
Suppose half the casinos in the world follow this strategy? Then what?
I think you're smart enough to answer this yourself.
>The Mirage charts their wheels on computer by using the same data as the
>electronic display. It is impossible for a player to spot a biased wheel
>before the casino under those conditions. The extension of current
>technology is trivial and inexspensive for any casiono. Does this book
>point that out?
Is the Mirage the only place in the world to look for biased wheels?
If you find a place that can't be beat at BJ because of the casino's
countermeasures, what does that tell you about the viability of BJ
strategies? You'd be surprised at how slowly innovation spreads
through the casino industry in some countries. You need to be less
parochial in your analysis of these things. How many casinos in
different countries have you played in?
>I quoted another author that some casinos switch rotors on their wheels.
>His response was that he had played all over the world "professionally"
>and had never seen this happen.
I didn't say it _never_ happens. The thrust of my answer was that it
isn't a major worry for people looking for biased wheels. Some casinos
probably do do this. They are probably a small minority. I haven't
_seen_ it happen. In the book we explain how to determine whether
this has happened or not. By using a little imagination you can
probably come up with some of the same techniques we advocate.
>Does he point out why a "professional" roulette player thinks that his
>time is better spent publishing a limited appeal paperback book than
>being out there charting the tables and finding those biased wheels?
Are these two activities mutually exclusive? Do you think everyone who
publishes a winning blackjack system has never made any money at the
game? Why did Thorp publish _Beat the Dealer_ way back in '62 before
anyone but a handful of seat-of-the-pants, but fairly accurate, players
could beat the game?
He turned a game that could be beaten by a dozen or so people into one
that could be beaten by thousands. Why did he likewise publish
_Beat the Market_, a book from which many made money, including me.
The system described in that book made money until there were finally
too many people using it and it became difficult to find qualifying
situations. You might say that Thorp killed a game that had been
going on in the market for 40 years. It took about 15 years to kill
it fairly completely. There may actually be pockets of opportunity
left for the system. Certainly there are for the sytems that succeeded
it. I think you know what they are.
Why don't you think before you post!? In any case, we consider this
question and answer it in the book.
>If he is a professional, why would he be interested in helping others to
>find the biased wheels which are his source of income?
Why do professional BJ players write books? And, see above.
>Are the wheels breaking faster than a hord of informed players can find them?
I don't think this question is intelligible the way it's written.
I am not going to answer most of your questions in the newsgroup. I will
answer them privately. Casino employees read these groups as well as
players. The number of people who will buy this book and employ the
methods therein is small enough not to make too many waves in this
regard. In this one post I've gone somewhat beyond what should be
discussed openly, but as newsgroups are pretty ephemeral, little harm
is done.
>Is the loss to bias tracking so small that the casino won't notice?
I believe I've answered this before. It's entirely up to the astuteness
of the player. A smart player knows how to deal with this problem. Ask
some serious BJ players how they deal with winning and getting away with
it.
>I asked the same guestions of the author in this forum. No response.
Not true. Perhaps you missed my post. Next time you accuse someone of not
answering your questions make sure you're monitoring the newsgroup often
enough so that you don't miss the answer; it's not very good form to
impugn someone's motives without good reason. Another thing: you asked
15 or 20 questions in your post, some of which to answer properly
require more than brief answers. Next time, why not restrict yourself
to a few questions per post. My apologies for this long post, BTW.
>I have the following critical questions that you as a reviewer may be
>able to answer as the author chose not to respond. (To protect his
>prospective book sales, I assume)
Some of these questions have been answered _several_ times, both in
the newsgroup, and to you personally by email.
>How many spins does it take when charting a wheel to determine that the
>wheel is NOT BIASED?
This was answered in my email to you and was also answered in my previous
post in answer to your questions. But I'll answer it yet again. It
depends on how many biased numbers there are, how large the bias is on
those numbers, and how sure you want to be that you're betting a
biased wheel. Most frequently the answer is in the neighborhood of
1000 spins. With the techniques explained in the book and with the
simulation software answers to this question may be tailored to
specific situations.
>At one spin every two minutes or so, how many hours
>of invested time per unbiased wheel does that represent.
The answer to this is left as an exercise for the reader. But, make sure
that you do the calculation assuming you're watching four wheels at once.
We sometimes clock as many as six at one time.
>Based on the author's professional experience, what percentage of wheels
>are not biased?
This will vary greatly according to what part of the world you're in.
Don't expect to find a lot of them in the large, fancy casinos in
Las Vegas. You should look in the smaller casinos in Vegas, and in
casinos in the rest of the country, and in other countries.
I'm not going to rewrite the whole book on the newsgroup just to answer
your questions. Be reasonable.
>With these figures, the expected value of his book could be more clearly
>determined.
If you need this much information to risk 80 bucks, this book and its
strategies are not for you. My advice to you: don't buy the book. If you
buy Barnhart's book, you can read about some successes people have had
with this technique. It'll only cost you 12 bucks. Better yet, get
it from the library for free.
>Clearly, wheel bias analysis, roulette dealer tracking, and dynamic
>prediction are possible ways of beating roulette. This author has used
>this forum to hint that by purchasing his book, the student will learn
>from a "professional" roulette player who will show the way
>to beat the casino by wheel bias analysis.
More accurately, to beat some wheels in some casinos using wheel bias
analysis.
A final thought: since the book and software enables the owner to
determine when a wheel is likely _not_ biased, some people who might
have wasted money trying to beat a wheel with the idea that it _was_
biased will save the money they otherwise would have lost. They
will have gotten their money's worth. It's very easy to look as
data for a wheel and think that the leading few numbers are biased
when they're not. Most people considerably underestimate the degree
of variance in these matters thinking they've stumbled onto
a biased wheel when all they've found is a fluctuation.
Hope this clarifies things. Once again, sorry for the long post. Next
time someone asks 15 or 20 questions I'll try to answer them two or
three at a time.
--------------------------------------------------------
* Brent Fredrickson *
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Beating Roulette with the Biased Wheel Handbook
http://www.avc-net.com/saros
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--------------------------------------------------------
cardano
alejand...@gmail.com
Cardano: I´d like to take a look at the "biased wheel handbook", it is out of print since ages.
Please contac me via alejand...@gmail.com
alejand...@gmail.com
warm regards