在 2014年4月4日星期五UTC+8下午2时15分06秒,Colin Fairbrother写道:
> THE LOTTO FACTS THAT DR ILIYA BLUSKOV,
>
> PROFESSOR OF MATHEMATICS,
>
> UNIVERSITY NORTHERN BRITISH COLUMBIA,
>
> DIDN'T MENTION IN HIS 1997 THESIS
>
> by Colin Fairbrother
>
>
>
> Without a Doctorate in Mathematics and a Professorship at the
>
> University of Northern British Columbia, Canada, Iliya Bluskov
>
> could be taken to be a small village to the west of Varna, an
>
> eastern Black Sea coastal city in Bulgaria.
>
>
>
> In 1997 Dr Iliya Bluskov wrote his thesis titled "New Designs
>
> and Coverings", which can be downloaded or viewed at -
>
>
http://www.collectionscanada.gc.ca/obj/s4/f2/dsk3/ftp04/nq24295.pdf
>
>
>
> In this article I restrict myself to his claims regarding Lotto,
>
> a Lottery game where the player is able to choose their own
>
> numbers and in particular the classic Pick 6, Pool 49 Lotto game
>
> (6/49) available in the UK, various states in the USA, Germany,
>
> Canada, South Africa etc.
>
>
>
> On page 8 and 9 of the thesis Bluskov gives an example of
>
> playing an 80 line Cover from a restricted set of numbers (Pool)
>
> of 14 rather than the 49 available in a 6/49 Lotto game. The
>
> Cover Bluskov uses guarantees in a hypothetical and non-existent
>
> 6/14 Lotto game that unequivocally a match-4 will be obtained,
>
> not only when all the 3003 combinations of 6 from 14 are
>
> considered or the 2002 combinations of 5 from 14 but also when
>
> the 1001 combinations of 4 from 14 are considered.
>
>
>
> What does this Cover, which can be described using the syntax
>
> C(14,6,4,4,1)=80 guarantee in a 6/49 Lotto game? The answer is a
>
> BIG FAT NOTHING! For the minimum guarantee in a 6/49 Lotto game
>
> a C(49,6,3,6)=163 is needed ie 163 lines - no ifs, no buts.
>
>
>
> However, according to Dr Iliya Bluskov it "will secure a certain
>
> guarantee".
>
>
>
> The next paragraph introduces the reader to the Iliya Bluskov
>
> art of devious, deceitful semantics and just outright lies. The
>
> paragraph is reproduced below; let's examine it phrase by phrase.
>
>
>
> "Naturally, one can ask: What is the advantage of
>
> playing for such a guaranteed win? If we compare
>
> playing with 80 random tickets against 80 tickets
>
> forming a (14,6,4) covering we see that the probability
>
> of a 6-win ("hitting the jackpot") is the same for
>
> each ticket; namely 14c6^-1)-'. However, if any 4 of
>
> the numbers drawn are among the 14 numbers chosen by
>
> the syndicate, then the 80 tickets of a (14,6,4)
>
> covering guarantee at least one 4-win while 80 random
>
> tickets (on the same 14 numbers) guarantee nothing!
>
> This property of the coverings is attractive to some
>
> lottery players and there are many books (see, for
>
> example, [32] or [46]) and computer software
>
> available describing coverings. In this application,
>
> the coverings are often referred to as wheels or
>
> lottery systems."
>
>
>
> The paragraph begs the question to any rational and mildly
>
> analytical reader, "Why random selections from only 14 numbers
>
> when the example is for a 6/49 Lotto game?". Also, "Where would
>
> a normal player go to get 80 random selection lines from a Pool
>
> of only 14?"
>
>
>
> Fortunately, I've made it easy and you will find 80 lines
>
> generated using the Merzenne Twister Algorithm at the bottom of
>
> this article.
>
>
>
> Now, knowing Iliya Bluskov and most of his tactics from the
>
> other article I started titled :-
>
>
>
> Professor Iliya Bluskov promotes deceitful claims for Lotto Covers or Wheels
>
>
https://groups.google.com/forum/#!topic/rec.gambling.lottery/TVhINzsP0hI
>
> - the first accusation he will make is to accuse me of rigging
>
> the 80 random lines of 6 from 14. Well, here are two sites without
>
> nasty ads for more sets -
>
>
>
>
http://graphpad.com/quickcalcs/randomN1.cfm
>
> or
>
>
http://www.randomizer.org/form.htm
>
>
>
> Let's examine this very loud sentence,
>
> "However, if any 4 of the numbers drawn are among the
>
> 14 numbers chosen by the syndicate, then the 80
>
> tickets of a (14,6,4) covering guarantee at least one
>
> 4-win while 80 random tickets (on the same 14 numbers)
>
> guarantee nothing!"
>
>
>
> WRONG! WRONG! WRONG!
>
>
>
> You can test the 80 line random selection set of 6 from a Pool of
>
> 14 given below in CoverMaster and you will find the following
>
> guarantees for the Pool of 14 -
>
> 3if6 YES!
>
> 3if5 YES!
>
> 3if4 YES!
>
> 3if3 4 Uncovered
>
> 4if6 YES!
>
>
>
> So, you can look at the winning six and if you see 3 or 4 of the
>
> numbers that were used in the Pool of 14 you know you have won a
>
> prize. But is this a guarantee for the 6/49 game? Well, in
>
> Bluskov speak it is but in the real world it's just an
>
> observation after the fact - the fact being the draw.
>
>
>
> Bluskov maintains that any set of numbers played in Lotto is
>
> just as good as any other whether over the short or long term.
>
>
>
> This I am sure would be very unpalatable news to both his
>
> current booklet owners and those thinking about buying it. The
>
> one exception Bluskov makes is say 10 lines all repeated.
>
>
>
> According to Bluskov sets with 10 repeat CombFives, CombFours or
>
> CombThrees are in the short or long term just as good as any
>
> other set. He still maintains this position despite all the
>
> evidence to the contrary provided by myself.
>
>
>
> By taking this position Bluskov is also saying the Covers he
>
> promotes are no better than any other set. The dubious reason he
>
> gives for people wanting to use Covers or Wheels is that for
>
> favourite numbers after the draw they can quickly look at the
>
> result and if 3 or more are in their favourite numbers they know
>
> they have won a prize. My experience is that people like looking
>
> and in this day and age of on-line betting the Lotto operator
>
> site does the looking.
>
>
>
> Unlike Bluskov I maintain that restricting the Pool, repeating
>
> paying subsets and not keeping the coverage as high as possible
>
> for the Lotto game played will adversely affect the Percentage
>
> Return or Yield as in Winnings/Cost over the short term, say,
>
> 1,000 plays.
>
>
>
> The C(14,6,4,4)=80 Cover promoted by Iliya Bluskov when applied
>
> to the 6/49 Lotto game gives only a 3if6 Coverage of 22% as does
>
> the 80 line Random Selection from Pool 14. Contrast this with 80
>
> lines Random Selections from 49 as in the first 80 draws of the
>
> UK Lotto which gives 78% 3if6 Coverage or my Partial Cover for
>
> 80 lines giving 89% 3if6 Coverage. Which do you prefer - the 80
>
> line restricted Pool Cover that gives only 1 win in 5 draws or
>
> the 80 line Partial Cover that gives a win pretty well every
>
> draw?
>
>
>
> A comparison table is available here :-
>
> LOTTO WHEELS OR COVERS CON-ARTIST CLAIMS TOTALLY DEBUNKED IN TABLE
>
>
http://www.colinfairbrother.com/UsingLesserPoolCoversInLotto.aspx
>
>
>
> The sad fact is an academic, a tenured Professor, with a Doctorate
>
> in Mathematics has thrown in his lot with publicists that are Lotto
>
> con-artist speilers. For the likes of the Wheelie Lady, Gail Howard,
>
> with her prediction and filtering wizardry (thoroughly debunked by
>
> me) it makes sense to use Covers or Wheels because she and her fans
>
> believe they have narrowed down the numbers that will appear in the
>
> next draw.
>
>
>
> My advice to his publicists is that there is only so much mileage to
>
> be gained from touting a PhD and a Professorship before incurring the
>
> wrath of the academic community and their fighting back. I'm not an
>
> academic but I'm doing my bit.
>
>
>
> Colin Fairbrother
>
>
>
>
http://www.ColinFairbrother.com
>
>
http://www.LottoPoster.com
>
>
http://www.LottoToWin.com
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
> 80 Random Selections of 6 from 14 using numbers 1 to 14
>
> 01 03 07 10 11 13
>
> 01 02 04 06 07 13
>
> 02 07 11 12 13 14
>
> 02 08 09 10 11 13
>
> 01 03 09 10 11 14
>
> 01 02 03 05 11 14
>
> 03 05 06 11 12 13
>
> 02 03 05 10 11 13
>
> 01 06 07 09 11 12
>
> 01 07 08 09 11 13
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> 04 05 07 08 10 14
>
> 01 03 05 06 07 12
>
> 01 05 10 12 13 14
>
> 01 06 07 08 09 12
>
> 03 04 07 10 11 14
>
> 01 04 05 11 12 14
>
> 05 06 08 10 11 14
>
> 01 03 06 10 11 12
>
> 01 04 09 10 12 14
>
> 02 04 05 07 11 14
>
> 02 05 06 07 09 14
>
> 01 02 06 07 09 11
>
> 03 06 08 09 11 13
>
> 01 05 10 11 12 13
>
> 03 04 05 08 10 11
>
> 01 02 05 07 08 09
>
> 03 04 05 09 10 13
>
> 04 05 07 11 12 13
>
> 02 03 05 10 12 14
>
> 04 05 07 08 09 10
>
> 05 08 09 11 12 13
>
> 05 06 07 10 11 13
>
> 03 08 10 11 13 14
>
> 03 07 08 10 11 12
>
> 02 05 07 12 13 14
>
> 05 06 08 11 13 14
>
> 03 04 05 06 10 14
>
> 03 07 08 09 10 14
>
> 02 04 05 08 10 13
>
> 01 02 03 04 08 13
>
> 01 06 08 10 11 14
>
> 01 04 06 10 11 12
>
> 01 04 05 09 11 14
>
> 03 05 07 10 12 13
>
> 01 05 09 10 12 13
>
> 01 04 06 07 10 14
>
> 01 04 07 08 12 13
>
> 02 04 09 10 13 14
>
> 03 04 08 10 12 14
>
> 03 05 07 09 12 13
>
> 03 04 05 10 11 13
>
> 01 02 03 05 08 13
>
> 01 03 06 08 09 11
>
> 01 07 08 09 10 13
>
> 02 05 06 08 10 13
>
> 01 02 04 08 11 12
>
> 03 04 06 08 13 14
>
> 03 04 06 08 09 13
>
> 03 04 05 07 09 11
>
> 01 06 07 08 10 14
>
> 01 03 04 06 07 13
>
> 04 05 10 11 13 14
>
> 05 07 08 09 11 14
>
> 04 05 07 09 12 13
>
> 02 03 04 05 10 14
>
> 05 07 08 10 12 14
>
> 01 05 07 08 11 13
>
> 05 07 08 11 13 14
>
> 02 03 04 09 12 14
>
> 02 05 07 12 13 14
>
> 02 08 09 10 11 14
>
> 01 02 03 05 06 08
>
> 01 03 05 09 13 14
>
> 02 03 09 10 11 12
>
> 02 03 05 06 10 14
>
> 01 04 08 09 12 13
>
> 02 04 08 09 10 12
>
> 01 02 03 08 10 12
>
> 02 04 06 07 10 14
>
> 01 02 06 08 10 11
When C(14,6,4,4),Those random lines would lose badly to a well constructed and filter predictions.,I achieve 250%-2000% prize ratio with 80 tickets.
Nan