Odds, hop bets and table charting
Mike
pass-come-come strategy, which has stood me well since I started playing
a couple of years ago. (At least when I've had the common sense to leave
the table when I'm ahead - that's sometimes the toughest thing about
this game.) But, anyway, I have some questions for people wiser than me
and would appreciate any comments:
1) I play at an Indian reservation casino in Washington state (making the
short drive from Canada where craps is against federal law - honest to
God.) The casino offers double odds only, so I was quite surprised to
hear about 5x, 10x and even 20x odds in Nevada and elsewhere. Don't
these generous odds drop the casino's vig to damn near zero? Why would
any astute gambler play at any table that doesn't offer these odds? Are
high odds offered only at tables that have a high minimum? Are these
high odds tables swarmed with players? Are the casinos becoming
competitive with regard to odds offered? I'm looking forward to a Nevada
visit now for the kick of dropping $100 behind my $5 pass-line bet,
which seems quite amazing to me after all this time playing double odds.
2) Someone told me you can instruct a dealer to have the odds on your
come bets working on the come-out roll. Is this true? If so, would it
not be to a player's advantage to do so?
3) Okay, a dumb question, but nobody knows me here, so who cares? What
is a hop bet? I understand it's a one-roll bet on a number not on the
centre layout. What are the odds on these bets? Does anyone ever make
them?
4) I've been reading a bit about table tracking lately. Now I know dice
have no memory and every roll is independent of every previous roll, but
as the respected Edwin Silberstang wrote: "It has not only been my
experience, but that of others as well, that the game runs in cycles
or streaks, as it were, and these streaks can last a long time. When
the dice are hot, number after number comes up to the delight of the
right bettor." Okay, it's hard not to have some sympathy toward this very
simple observation. Does it not make sense, then, to at least watch a
few rolls before making a bet to try to get a feel of a table's rhythm?
I read one guy who says wait until a shooter has "qualified" by making
a point before betting with him. What I'm thinking is waiting for a
couple of shooters to seven out with no come repeats before making a bet
in the hope a hot streak is due. (I know, I know, it's a fallacy...)
Anyway, I think that's how I'll play this weekend and I'll file a trip
report when I get home.
Cheers and good luck,
Mike.
Ken Kubey
>
>1) I play at an Indian reservation casino in Washington state (making the
>short drive from Canada where craps is against federal law - honest to
>God.) The casino offers double odds only, so I was quite surprised to
>hear about 5x, 10x and even 20x odds in Nevada and elsewhere. Don't
>these generous odds drop the casino's vig to damn near zero?
Nope. They still make 1.4% on the pass line bets.
The casino breaks even on the odds bets so it doesn't hurt them
to offer 10x odds. In fact, it may help the casino win our
money even faster.
>Why would
>any astute gambler play at any table that doesn't offer these odds?
A really astute gambler wouldn't play craps.
>Are
>high odds offered only at tables that have a high minimum? Are these
>high odds tables swarmed with players? Are the casinos becoming
>competitive with regard to odds offered? I'm looking forward to a Nevada
>visit now for the kick of dropping $100 behind my $5 pass-line bet,
>which seems quite amazing to me after all this time playing double odds.
Let's say you hit a cold table. After losing say $500 on 5 shooters
who establish points and 7 out, can you afford to keep playing?
Unless you have a huge bankroll, making *huge* odds bets behind
small line bets can cause you to lose all of your money quickly.
A better strategy might be to bet $1 or $2 on the line and take
$10 or $20 odds.
>2) Someone told me you can instruct a dealer to have the odds on your
>come bets working on the come-out roll. Is this true? If so, would it
>not be to a player's advantage to do so?
True, you can "work" your odds or call them "off".
It makes no difference to your expectation whether you call them
working or off.
The craps theory is that you want them off in case a 7 is rolled
on the come-out. Better to miss winning one bet than losing
3 or 4 bets, right?
>3) Okay, a dumb question, but nobody knows me here, so who cares? What
>is a hop bet? I understand it's a one-roll bet on a number not on the
>centre layout. What are the odds on these bets? Does anyone ever make
>them?
They pay 30-1 on a hardway/pair, 15-1 on a specific non-pair.
For example, hopping hard 4 pays 30-1. Hopping 5-4 pays 15-1.
These are terrible bets. Don't make them unless God himself tells
you what the next roll will be.
Do I make these bets? Once a trip on average :-)
>4) I've been reading a bit about table tracking lately. Now I know dice
>have no memory and every roll is independent of every previous roll, but
>as the respected Edwin Silberstang wrote: "It has not only been my
>experience, but that of others as well, that the game runs in cycles
>or streaks, as it were, and these streaks can last a long time. When
>the dice are hot, number after number comes up to the delight of the
>right bettor." Okay, it's hard not to have some sympathy toward this very
>simple observation. Does it not make sense, then, to at least watch a
>few rolls before making a bet to try to get a feel of a table's rhythm?
>I read one guy who says wait until a shooter has "qualified" by making
>a point before betting with him. What I'm thinking is waiting for a
>couple of shooters to seven out with no come repeats before making a bet
>in the hope a hot streak is due. (I know, I know, it's a fallacy...)
>Anyway, I think that's how I'll play this weekend and I'll file a trip
>report when I get home.
In theory it's all random, but it can't hurt to watch a little bit
and get a feel for the table. I like to see a shooter throw a couple
rolls before I start placing numbers.
Ken Kubey ku...@engr.sgi.com QB (415) 933-3536
ALAN SHANK
>
>I'll be rollin the cubes this weekend, using my usual conservative
>pass-come-come strategy, which has stood me well since I started
playing
>a couple of years ago. (At least when I've had the common sense to
leave
>the table when I'm ahead - that's sometimes the toughest thing about
>this game.) But, anyway, I have some questions for people wiser than me
>and would appreciate any comments:
>
>1) I play at an Indian reservation casino in Washington state (making
the
>short drive from Canada where craps is against federal law - honest to
>God.)
Where is this casino? I live in Portland, OR, and would drive up there
occasionaly to play.
>The casino offers double odds only, so I was quite surprised to
>hear about 5x, 10x and even 20x odds in Nevada and elsewhere. Don't
>these generous odds drop the casino's vig to damn near zero? Why would
>any astute gambler play at any table that doesn't offer these odds? Are
>high odds offered only at tables that have a high minimum? Are these
>high odds tables swarmed with players? Are the casinos becoming
>competitive with regard to odds offered? I'm looking forward to a
Nevada
>visit now for the kick of dropping $100 behind my $5 pass-line bet,
>which seems quite amazing to me after all this time playing double
odds.
>
>2) Someone told me you can instruct a dealer to have the odds on your
>come bets working on the come-out roll. Is this true? If so, would it
>not be to a player's advantage to do so?
>
Absolutely! You can and should. They will put a little "on" button on
one of your come/odds bets.
>3) Okay, a dumb question, but nobody knows me here, so who cares? What
>is a hop bet? I understand it's a one-roll bet on a number not on the
>centre layout. What are the odds on these bets? Does anyone ever make
>them?
A hop bet pays like the eleven for a combination that can be rolled two
ways ("6 trey on the hop!") or like the twelve for one-combination bets
("two fours on the hop!"), usually 31 for 1 and 16 for 1.
>4) I've been reading a bit about table tracking lately. Now I know dice
>have no memory and every roll is independent of every previous roll,
but
>as the respected Edwin Silberstang wrote: "It has not only been my
>experience, but that of others as well, that the game runs in cycles
>or streaks, as it were, and these streaks can last a long time. When
>the dice are hot, number after number comes up to the delight of the
>right bettor." Okay, it's hard not to have some sympathy toward this
very
>simple observation. Does it not make sense, then, to at least watch a
>few rolls before making a bet to try to get a feel of a table's rhythm?
>I read one guy who says wait until a shooter has "qualified" by making
>a point before betting with him. What I'm thinking is waiting for a
>couple of shooters to seven out with no come repeats before making a
bet
>in the hope a hot streak is due. (I know, I know, it's a fallacy...)
>Anyway, I think that's how I'll play this weekend and I'll file a trip
>report when I get home.
>
>Cheers and good luck,
>Mike.
>
>
A hot or cold table only exists in hindsight. If a table has been hot,
it might continue; it might not. Any method you use of deciding when to
bet is as good as any other. If you wait for an "eligible" shooter, you
will miss out on some wins and some losses. You will bet less, so you
will lose less or win less.
Enjoy and good luck!
Alan Shank